Santander for Bieber

[Sydnor]

On 11/21/2023 at 3:13 PM, SilverRocket said:

They're in similar places contractwise, so whatever (QO, etc.) you can do with one, you can do with the other. This would just be a swap of similar quality players based on positional need.

I guess my question is why don’t people think the Guardians need starting pitching? This is their current rotation:

Tanner Bibee (coming off the most innings he has ever thrown);

Gavin Williams (coming off the most innings he has ever thrown);

Logan Allen (coming off the most innings he has ever thrown);

Triston McKenzie (missed basically the entire year and has an ugly injury history);

Bieber (had right elbow inflammation).

Then you get into Cantillo (command issues and has barely had a cup of coffee in AAA), Hunter Gaddis (Bruce Zimmermann-like, but right handed), Espino (injured for the past 2 years), and hoping Will Dion can make a quick jump, but he’s a lefty that tops out at 91-92 even if his deliver looks like Kershaw’s. I’m sure there willing to listen on Bieber, but the idea that Cleveland is currently loaded with pitching is based in reputation, not fact.

[RZNJ]

I don’t think Elias wants to go 1 year rental but let’s assume that Cleveland wants prospects instead of someone like Santander.  A lot of posters don’t like Bieber because he’s lost a lot of velocity on his fastball.  It was only 91.3 last year.  However, it was also 91.3 in 2022 when he was worth 4.8 FWAR, started 31 games and pitched 200 innings.  He missed time last year with injury but came back to make two starts in late September.  
 

Is there one prospect or prospect package you’d be willing to give up for Bieber?  He’s going to be cheaper and more risk than Cease but also a chance he produces as well or better.

[Just Regular]

I heard the quote Steve Melewski got from Dan O'Dowd about the need for a playoff-caliber starter who is different than Bradish as basically code for Shane Bieber being a bad fit.      Bradish and Bieber both have outstanding sliders.

 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I heard the quote Steve Melewski got from Dan O'Dowd about the need for a playoff-caliber starter who is different than Bradish as basically code for Shane Bieber being a bad fit.      Bradish and Bieber both have outstanding sliders.

 

I don’t agree with O’Dowd’s logic but that would rule out Cease as well.

[interloper]

I don't think Elias would be concerned about two pitchers being similar if they're both great pitchers with weapons that get guys out. That seems kind of silly to me. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think Elias wants to go 1 year rental but let’s assume that Cleveland wants prospects instead of someone like Santander.  A lot of posters don’t like Bieber because he’s lost a lot of velocity on his fastball.  It was only 91.3 last year.  However, it was also 91.3 in 2022 when he was worth 4.8 FWAR, started 31 games and pitched 200 innings.  He missed time last year with injury but came back to make two starts in late September.  
 

Is there one prospect or prospect package you’d be willing to give up for Bieber?  He’s going to be cheaper and more risk than Cease but also a chance he produces as well or better.

Maybe Beavers? I would not go up to Cowser or Kjerstad unless there is more coming back. If they want more than Beavers, maybe toss in a pitcher.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Maybe Beavers? I would not go up to Cowser or Kjerstad unless there is more coming back. If they want more than Beavers, maybe toss in a pitcher.

I was thinking similarly.  Cleveland needs offense.  Would they be interested in spare parts and a lesser prospect.

Stowers, Irvin, Mateo, O’Hearn.   Each of those players make some sense for the Guardians.   

[NJOriolesFan]

What about expanding it to include Emanuel Clase?  Santander, Kremer and Beavers for Bieber and Clase?

After 2005 (when Bautista has been back for a year), we can possibly trade Clase for a prospect.

We can still trade (Cowser or Kjerstad), Povich & Bascome for Burnes.

Rotation would be solid with

Burnes, Bieber, Rodriguez, Bradish & Means

 

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

What about expanding it to include Emanuel Clase?  Santander, Kremer and Beavers for Bieber and Clase?

After 2005 (when Bautista has been back for a year), we can possibbly trade Clase for a prospect.

We can still trade (Cowser or Kjerstad), Povich & Bascome for Burnes.

Rotation would be solid with

Burnes, Bieber, Rodriguez, Bradish & Means

 

You would have 3 starters that are FA at the end of the year so it looks great for 2024 but puts us in a bad spot after that.  Also, I think you're light for getting both  Bieber and Clase.

Edited December 5, 2023 by RZNJ

[HakunaSakata]

28 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

What about expanding it to include Emanuel Clase?  Santander, Kremer and Beavers for Bieber and Clase?

 

No disrespect, but I don't think you're even in the ballpark with that trade offer. Clase is arguably the second most valuable player on the Guardians. He's a young elite closer who's under contact for five more years on a VERY affordable contract. If you want both Bieber and Clase it would cost a pretty penny (think Santander plus some of our higher level prospects). And I'm not sure they would have any interest in Kremer since they'd probably be trading Bieber to free up a spot for Espino. 

[Roll Tide]

48 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

What about expanding it to include Emanuel Clase?  Santander, Kremer and Beavers for Bieber and Clase?

After 2005 (when Bautista has been back for a year), we can possibly trade Clase for a prospect.

We can still trade (Cowser or Kjerstad), Povich & Bascome for Burnes.

Rotation would be solid with

Burnes, Bieber, Rodriguez, Bradish & Means

 

He’s not trading Kremer that we seriously underrate here.  You’d be filling one hole and creating another. Guys think Kremer is easy to replace but really he’s not without spending money.

[HakunaSakata]

On 11/21/2023 at 9:37 AM, CP0861 said:

Why on earth would Cleveland trade 1 year of Bieber for 1 year of Santander?

It would make NO sense for Cleveland. Zip. Zero. Nada.

 

A better way to ask this question is why would Cleveland trade 1 year of Bieber for 1 year of Santander...when they can just sign a comparable FA for a similar salary as Santander (i.e., Renfroe, Pederson, Duvall, etc.)? And yes maybe Santander is little better/safer, but he's not give Bieber away for free better./safer. I think what really hurts Santander's value is the things that he does well aren't unique. Average to poor fielding OFers who hit HRs and have a low OBP are a dime a dozen in a MLB. 

All that said, I have significant concerns about Bieber's health / arm. 

[Sydnor]

14 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

No disrespect, but I don't think you're even in the ballpark with that trade offer. Clase is arguably the second most valuable player on the Guardians. He's a young elite closer who's under contact for five more years on a VERY affordable contract. If you want both Bieber and Clase it would cost a pretty penny (think Santander plus some of our higher level prospects). And I'm not sure they would have any interest in Kremer since they'd probably be trading Bieber to free up a spot for Espino. 

Espino has pitched 18.1 innings in AA. He did not pitch in 2023. He had shoulder surgery that will keep him out until at least May of this season and more likely July. Those 18.1 innings in AA were the only innings he has thrown in the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is not trading Bieber to open up a spot for Espino.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t agree with O’Dowd’s logic but that would rule out Cease as well.

Roger that on the main point but I think there's more of a "there there" with Cease's fastball.

[HakunaSakata]

8 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Espino has pitched 18.1 innings in AA. He did not pitch in 2023. He had shoulder surgery that will keep him out until at least May of this season and more likely July. Those 18.1 innings in AA were the only innings he has thrown in the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is not trading Bieber to open up a spot for Espino.

I didn't realize that he was out that long, but honestly that was a pretty minor part of my post. The suggested trade offer is still unbelievably lopsided.