Poll: Roberts for 4/44?

[Mackus]

This goes back to what I was asking before...Do you pay a guy what he is "worth"(say by fangraphs standards) or do you pay him what the market dictates what he is worth?

Because the market says BRob isn't worth this contract right now.

It depends on a couple factors.

1) Will the player accept current market terms or will he gamble he can get more in FA?

2) Do you think the market will remain down for a while, or will it bounce back quickly?

I don't think it is unreasonable to think that by 2012 or 2013 the market will be right back up to where it was or even higher. If WAR are worth $5-6M in 2013, then even at $12M Roberts shouldn't be too much of a disappointment even if some of the more pessimistic projections for his career come to fruition. And even in this current deflated market Roberts is probably worth $10-12M over the next 2 and maybe 3 seasons (starting 2009).

[Frobby]

This goes back to what I was asking before...Do you pay a guy what he is "worth"(say by fangraphs standards) or do you pay him what the market dictates what he is worth?

Because the market says BRob isn't worth this contract right now.

As I understand fangraphs, it is specifically looking at the "market" for the year in question. For example, 2008 values are determined by what last year's free agents received. Therefore, one can assume that if BRob duplicated his 2008 season in 2009, it would have a "value" much lower than in 2008 because the market has been worse. But even so, using fangraphs' methods, I think it is still a safe bet that Roberts is worth more than $10-11 mm a year for his current performance level (since he was worth $18 and $20 mm the last 2 years based on 2007/08 prices).

Will next year's market be better or worse - who knows? If I were a betting man I'd guess it will be no better, and maybe worse, but I could be wrong.

[Sports Guy]

It depends on a couple factors.

1) Will the player accept current market terms or will he gamble he can get more in FA?

2) Do you think the market will remain down for a while, or will it bounce back quickly?

I don't think it is unreasonable to think that by 2012 or 2013 the market will be right back up to where it was or even higher. If WAR are worth $5-6M in 2013, then even at $12M Roberts shouldn't be too much of a disappointment even if some of the more pessimistic projections for his career come to fruition. And even in this current deflated market Roberts is probably worth $10-12M over the next 2 and maybe 3 seasons (starting 2009).

But next offseason, things are likely to be as bad or worse....So, because of that, what are the chances BRob gets a 3/33 type deal next offseason, assuming he has a similar year to what he did in 2008? Solid OPS, high OBP and average at best defense...lots of doubles.

Would he get 3/33 in that scenario? I would say its possible but I would guess unlikely, assuming the market is as bad or worse.

One thing said early in the offseason is that GMs don't want to be bogged down with a long term deal for guys in their 30s..Now, there will always be exceptions but would BRob be one of those?

He is a leadoff guy, so he has that going for him but second baseman are treated poorly, so I am don't think he gets that contract.

So, then this all comes back to one thing IMO...How much of this contract are you giving him for what he has done for you in the past, for the idea that he is a fan favorite and that he is good in the community? How much is that worth?

[Frobby]

But next offseason, things are likely to be as bad or worse....So, because of that, what are the chances BRob gets a 3/33 type deal next offseason, assuming he has a similar year to what he did in 2008? Solid OPS, high OBP and average at best defense...lots of doubles.

Would he get 3/33 in that scenario? I would say its possible but I would guess unlikely, assuming the market is as bad or worse.

One thing said early in the offseason is that GMs don't want to be bogged down with a long term deal for guys in their 30s..Now, there will always be exceptions but would BRob be one of those?

He is a leadoff guy, so he has that going for him but second baseman are treated poorly, so I am don't think he gets that contract.

So, then this all comes back to one thing IMO...How much of this contract are you giving him for what he has done for you in the past, for the idea that he is a fan favorite and that he is good in the community? How much is that worth?

Milton Bradley got 3/$30 mm in this market. He had a career year and it was still only worth as much as BRob's year (per fangraphs). If I was betting on who would be the more productive player the next 3 years, it would be BRob without much doubt.

What he has done in the past and for the community might get a player an extra year or an extra $1-2 mm/yr. above what he's worth. Beyond that isn't really reasonable. But BRob is worth a lot.

[Mackus]

But next offseason, things are likely to be as bad or worse....So, because of that, what are the chances BRob gets a 3/33 type deal next offseason, assuming he has a similar year to what he did in 2008? Solid OPS, high OBP and average at best defense...lots of doubles.

Would he get 3/33 in that scenario? I would say its possible but I would guess unlikely, assuming the market is as bad or worse.

One thing said early in the offseason is that GMs don't want to be bogged down with a long term deal for guys in their 30s..Now, there will always be exceptions but would BRob be one of those?

He is a leadoff guy, so he has that going for him but second baseman are treated poorly, so I am don't think he gets that contract.

So, then this all comes back to one thing IMO...How much of this contract are you giving him for what he has done for you in the past, for the idea that he is a fan favorite and that he is good in the community? How much is that worth?

I'm not really comparing this potential contract to what he would get next offseason. I'm comparing it to what he'll be worth over the course of that contract. I definitely think the market will likely be down again next year, but I think by the end of the deal it will bounce back.

I think we will sign him to a contract that will be more than he'd get as a free agent next offseason, but that doesn't mean that he definitely will not live up to that contract. If you buy something worth on sale for $50 down from $75, do you get upset if you see it on sale a two months later for $40 or are you still happy that you got it on a 50% discount?

[Fan4Life]

It depends on a couple factors.

1) Will the player accept current market terms or will he gamble he can get more in FA?

2) Do you think the market will remain down for a while, or will it bounce back quickly?

I don't think it is unreasonable to think that by 2012 or 2013 the market will be right back up to where it was or even higher. If WAR are worth $5-6M in 2013, then even at $12M Roberts shouldn't be too much of a disappointment even if some of the more pessimistic projections for his career come to fruition. And even in this current deflated market Roberts is probably worth $10-12M over the next 2 and maybe 3 seasons (starting 2009).

I think you need to add #3 if the player is one of the best at his position.

3) Do the teams that overspend to get premiere talent (Yanks, Sox, etc) have an opening your player might fill.

[wickedwitch]

One of Miclat, Turner, Paco, or any number of players from outside the organization could probably give us similar production by 2011, but we are still going to be on the hook for $20M+.

I'm a lot more skeptical about that.

Who is Paco?

[Lucky Jim]

You know, I actually believe 2009 will be the first year. It's like the perfect compromise between 3/30 and 4/40 extensions. He gets more money but rips up the first year. So ends up being like 3/36 or 37 or something like that.

4/44 going until 2013 would be just awful in terms of a market decision. Brian is not worth 38-40 millino more than Odog.

Well, according to fangraphs calculation, Roberts has been worth $71.2m over the last four years, Hudson has been worth $39m.

But, first, no one's paying Orlando Hudson $4-6m for four years. So the comparison is inapt. Second, the idea that Roberts is worth twice what Hudson is seems to have some validity.

You're also ignoring the leverage factors: no team is in a position where not signing Hudson has any externalities beyond performance on the field. The O's have legitimate concerns about off-field value for Roberts that has to be taken into account.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm a lot more skeptical about that.

Who is Paco?

Figuera.

Letters.

[Frobby]

A few data points:

Ibanez 3/$31.5 (age 36) (2.9, 0.8, 2.3 Value Runs the last 3 years)

Furcal 3/$30 (age 31) (3.8, 1.7, 1.9)

Bradley 3/$30 (age 30) (2.8, 2.4, 4.5)

Dunn 2/$20 (age 29) (1.8, 2.8, 1.3)

Renteria 2/$18.5 (age 33) (3.6, 4.2, 1.4)

Hudson unsigned (age 31) (2.5, 3.4, 1.9)

Roberts unsigned (age 31) (3.1, 4.4, 4.5)

The first 5 guys will be making about $4 mm per average Value Run over the last three years. I think it is self evident that Roberts is currently the most valuable of the players in that group and deserves to make more than any of them over the next three years. At $4 mm per average Value Run he's worth $16 mm/yr. over the next 3 years. Then the issue is what is he worth for the two years after that. Put it this way, if he gets 4/$44 plus the $9 mm he is making in 2009, it's certainly not a big ripoff. He's highly likely to be worth more than $53 mm over the next 5 years, using these guys as the measuring stick.

[Scrat1]

I'm okay with it if it starts in 2009. If it starts in 2010, then I won't be too thrilled.

[Ruzious]

It is too much money to put into second base. Any other position on the field and I'd be ok with it. One of Miclat, Turner, Paco, or any number of players from outside the organization could probably give us similar production by 2011, but we are still going to be on the hook for $20M+. He will be untradeable. He isn't like a corner infielder or outfielder who can possibly take the role of a utility player and move around the diamond. I like the guy and hope I'm wrong, it is just the position he plays.

I think you're correct that he'll be untradable with a 4/44 contract, but to expect that one of Miclat, Turner, or especially Figueroa will duplcate his production by 2011... that's a big longshot, imo.

[Stacey]

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that it's a 4 year, $40M contract

[Frobby]

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that it's a 4 year, $40M contract

If so, I'm at peace.

[SilentJames]

This looks to me like a Melvin Mora situation all over again. Roberts is the type of guy that you have to pay. He means a lot to the team and is a guy who actually wants to play here.

I don't like the idea of 11 million a year for Roberts, but is it worth 11 million to the Orioles to keep him in orange and black? Should Roberts be penalized for having the bad luck to go on the FA market during an economic collapse after he has been such a good part of the Orioles so far?

There are a lot of factors to consider and many viewpoints. Right now, I don't like the dollar value much at all.

10 million is better, but still a little high.