Pre winter meeting reliever notes

[RZNJ]

Robertson is 39 so he’s most likely only getting a one year deal.  He’s not great but he’s good and my prediction if they go for the names mentioned so far.

[Sports Guy]

Any team that gives Hicks 4/40 or more is just flat out stupid. Awful contract for a very overrated reliever.

[MarCakes21]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why is everyone so high on this guy anyway?

His K rate is still good but it’s been on the decline for the last few years. Walk rate is high, HR is ok but not great. 
 

His ERA was sub 2 in 2023 but he had a 219 BABiP(easily the best of his career), his xFIp was 4.5, his FIP was just under 4 and his xERA was 3.35.  This was his first sub 3 ERA season since 2019. 
 

He’s going to get way overpaid because of a sub 2 ERA this year when in reality, he’s probably a 3.5ish ERA pitcher with some declining stats, although his statcast numbers are pretty solid.

"His statcast numbers are pretty solid". - This

He has closer experience, is a veteran and is okay doing setup or closer by committee, has good stuff, and won't command the same deals as some of the big name closers.  I think you could get him for 8mil per at 1 or 2 years.

[dystopia]

This is purely anecdotal but it feels like every time I see Neris pitch he gives up runs. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I have seen his name mentioned a bunch and not just on here.

Secondly, he definitely gets more money and years than Kimbrel.

It's possible, but he made less than Kimbrel last year. Neris made $8 while Kimbrel made $10. It's probably a toss up. Neris is slightly younger but with less name recognition. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

We would also trade for Bednar which would be my preference. I would prefer him over any of the others, save (like that) Hader. I think Tony touched on this fact as well, that we have no idea how Bautista will come back from TJ. Do we want to play this game again with random closers next year too? 

[Sports Guy]

Of all the relievers mentioned with closing experience, Robertson probably makes the most sense. It’s a near certainty he gets a 1 year deal, he has closing experience, his numbers are solid and he hasn’t had off the field drama or anything like that.  He also hasn’t had any recent or semi recent postseason meltdowns.

He would be fine. Not my preference because you never know if he just falls off a cliff at his age but there aren’t many, if any, signs of that happening right now, so sticking with him is fine.

[interloper]

Just now, E-D-D-I-E said:

We would also trade for Bednar which would be my preference. I would prefer him over any of the others, save (like that) Hader. I think Tony touched on this fact as well, that we have no idea how Bautista will come back from TJ. Do we want to play this game again with random closers next year too? 

Dude. Bednar, man. I've been wanting to get this guy for a couple years now. He's awesome. I don't think the Pirates will give him up, but he's like the perfect guy for this bullpen. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

We would also trade for Bednar which would be my preference. I would prefer him over any of the others, save (like that) Hader. I think Tony touched on this fact as well, that we have no idea how Bautista will come back from TJ. Do we want to play this game again with random closers next year too? 

I'm down with playing this game every year.

But I'd also be down with getting an actually elite guy.

What I don't want is to get a guy in decline just because he's been a "closer".

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

It's possible, but he made less than Kimbrel last year. Neris made $8 while Kimbrel made $10. It's probably a toss up. Neris is slightly younger but with less name recognition. 

Neris is coming off a better year. He made less money because he signed a 3 year deal a few years back. He’s looking at a 3-4 year deal for sure.  Kimbrel is not looking at anything beyond 2 years and even that is very unlikely.

They may get similar AAVs but Neris will get a much larger overall contract.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

"His statcast numbers are pretty solid". - This

He has closer experience, is a veteran and is okay doing setup or closer by committee, has good stuff, and won't command the same deals as some of the big name closers.  I think you could get him for 8mil per at 1 or 2 years.

Zippy chance he signs a 1-2 year for 8M.

[Sports Guy]

I’d prefer Stephenson more than any of the guys mentioned here, outside of Hader who isn’t really on the table. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Neris is coming off a better year. He made less money because he signed a 3 year deal a few years back. He’s looking at a 3-4 year deal for sure.  Kimbrel is not looking at anything beyond 2 years and even that is very unlikely.

They may get similar AAVs but Neris will get a much larger overall contract.

I'm interested to revisit this when they both sign. I'm more 50/50 on it - you could be right but you're a lot more confident about it than I am. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

We would also trade for Bednar which would be my preference. I would prefer him over any of the others, save (like that) Hader. I think Tony touched on this fact as well, that we have no idea how Bautista will come back from TJ. Do we want to play this game again with random closers next year too? 

Bednar will cost a painful package.  Most pitchers come back from TJ so yes, I am ok going with a plan of Bautista being the 2025 closer.  We might have some in house (Seth Johnson, Hall, McDermott) by then also.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm down with playing this game every year.

But I'd also be down with getting an actually elite guy.

What I don't want is to get a guy in decline just because he's been a "closer".

Yeah this is why I really would rather not with Kimbrel. He's gonna have miles of rope. I just want a decent back-end reliever to share closing duties with Cano/Perez/Wells/whoever is hot. Honestly, I think Hicks fits that profile, but the contract he's going to get would put pressure on Hyde to make him the defacto closer initially, so that's annoying. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by interloper