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Pre winter meeting reliever notes

SemperFi

By SemperFi
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HakunaSakata Major Leaguer Rising Star

HakunaSakata

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

He pitched in 23 games in 2019. He didn’t appear in his first game until late June. In his second and third outings of the season, he gave up 5 runs in 1.2 IP. he then pitched to a 2.3 ERA in his next 17 outings heading into Sept. he got hurt again and ended the month with 2 outings where he got scored upon right after coming back from injury.  So injury and SSS hurt him.

In 2021, he was traded at the deadline to the WS. He came from the Cubs, where he had a .49 ERA in 36 innings..giving up only 1 ER all year up until that point. He went to the WS and threw 23 innings.

He gave up 6 runs in 1.2 IP. He gave up 7 runs in the other 21.1, which is a sub 3 ERA.

So yea, saying he was terrible in those years is factually wrong. He was terrible for a few outings and if you want to say you are worried about him because of the big inning, that’s kind of fair but outside of that, I don’t see much merit for your complaints other than age and relievers really aren’t judged on age. 

I purposely combined 2019/2021 in my post because his total IPed for both years was close to a typical season. Also you trying to play with sample sizes and exclude some of Kimbrel's bad outings to make it appear like he wasn't bad those years is hysterical. 

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waroriole
waroriole

Holy cow dude. Do you have to mention Quintana in every post you make?

Tony-OH
Tony-OH

Hader does make a lot of sense for the team but I tend to agree that he'll probably price himself out of Baltimore. The only way it happens is if the old heart strings are pulled a bit and he wants to

Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

I knew I remembered the name.

Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I purposely combined 2019/2021 in my post because his total IPed for both years was close to a typical season. Also you trying to play with sample sizes and exclude some of Kimbrel's bad outings to make it appear like he wasn't bad those years is hysterical. 

You just aren’t understanding. SSS get skewed by really good or really bad outings. You are just looking at his ERA and saying he was awful.

You are wrong. His ERA was skewed by a few bad outings and the rest of his numbers weren’t too bad. You also aren’t providing context that he had injury issues in 2019.

It’s called presenting the full picture and not being disingenuous with how you try to present your case. 
 

His statcast numbers have generally been very good. His K rates have been good. His K/Bb ratios have been good. His Hr rates have generally been solid. He is missing a ton of bats. 
 

 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

You just aren’t understanding. SSS get skewed by really good or really bad outings. You are just looking at his ERA and saying he was awful.

You are wrong. His ERA was skewed by a few bad outings and the rest of his numbers weren’t too bad. You also aren’t providing context that he had injury issues in 2019.

 

Oh so if you remove the outing in which he gave up runs his ERA is 0.00.

Makes sense.

He gave up the runs.

He had issues in the playoffs in both 2022 and 2023.

Those things happened.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh so if you remove the outing in which he gave up runs his ERA is 0.00.

Makes sense.

He gave up the runs.

He had issues in the playoffs in both 2022 and 2023.

Those things happened.

Thank you Capt Obvious. As always, your posts bring so much to the conversations.

I never said they didn’t happen but in a season of 65-70 innings, 1-2 innings can greatly skew numbers that are otherwise very good.  This isn’t some difficult concept to grasp, even for you.

And ignoring that and saying that he was terrible when all the other numbers suggests otherwise is as an awful argument and just wrong.

If you are hesitant to go after him because of the playoffs, that’s fine, after all, the motivation behind these signings should be based on the playoffs imo. That being said, if he ran off 3 years of playoff success, it wouldn’t be shocking, just as it wouldn’t be shocking if a player with years of playoff success suddenly struggled.  Again, that’s what happens in SSS.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Thank you Capt Obvious. As always, your posts bring so much to the conversations.

I never said they didn’t happen but in a season of 65-70 innings, 1-2 innings can greatly skew numbers that are otherwise very good.  This isn’t some difficult concept to grasp, even for you.

And ignoring that and saying that he was terrible when all the other numbers suggests otherwise is as an awful argument and just wrong.

If you are hesitant to go after him because of the playoffs, that’s fine, after all, the motivation behind these signings should be based on the playoffs imo. That being said, if he ran off 3 years of playoff success, it wouldn’t be shocking, just as it wouldn’t be shocking if a player with years of playoff success suddenly struggled.  Again, that’s what happens in SSS.

You are the one that makes posts that require me to state the obvious.

Your post was bad and you should feel bad.

Everyone here understands the concept of Small Sample Size.

 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are the one that makes posts that require me to state the obvious.

Your post was bad and you should feel bad.

Everyone here understands the concept of Small Sample Size.

 

I don’t think they do. If they did, they wouldn’t state that so and so was terrible despite everything saying they aren’t, outside of a few bad outings.

 

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Safelykept Major Leaguer

Safelykept

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24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree that it's a longshot. Mostly because this team/ownership has shown no intention of signing that kind if talent due to the years and money it takes. Relievers can be volatile, but Hader has that special kind of talent that only an injury can derail.

Imagine a Bautista/Hader backend of the bullpen in 2025 and 2026? 

I would love Hader but its more than a longshot, but it Flunks on years and average salary per year. I do have confidence (unlike many others here) JA will increase payroll as revenues increase, but were  not there  now if ever, the contract hes is expected to get is NYY, LAD Texas Rangers ETC Not us

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh so if you remove the outing in which he gave up runs his ERA is 0.00.

Makes sense.

He gave up the runs.

He had issues in the playoffs in both 2022 and 2023.

Those things happened.

I haven’t even looked at Kimbrel’s game logs, but I do think you need to look at how a pitcher arrived at his ERA.  Some guys pitch well most of the time but have the occasional bad meltdown, other guys are consistently mediocre.  

If you look at Kimbrel’s ratio of shutdowns (33) to meltdowns (11) last year, it’s not elite, but it’s not bad.  He was 14th on the shutdown list, and had a better ratio than 4 of the pitchers ahead of him.  
 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they bring in someone like Kimbrel I want better than not bad.

The Dodgers left him off their playoff roster.  He got demoted this year in the playoffs.

I'd rather they go somewhere else.

The Orioles don’t tend to bring in “better than not bad”

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they bring in someone like Kimbrel I want better than not bad.

The Dodgers left him off their playoff roster.  He got demoted this year in the playoffs.

I'd rather they go somewhere else.

It’s tricky if you’re really looking for a one-year solution.  Really good pitchers generally require a longer commitment.  

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Sanity Check Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Sanity Check

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Doesn't cost the team anything to declare interest in a player.

THIS!  I've been interested in pretty girls before that I knew I'd never get.  Same thing here.  Can't hurt to declare interest and if one of them says, I really want to be in Baltimore and will consider taking less, then things just got interesting.  I don't see that happening, though.

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