Is Luzardo a realistic target?

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok. According to Fangraphs a typical Cease season is equal to Luzardo’s best season so far AND Cease had 3 straight seasons of 30 starts and Luzardo has one.

This feels like an unnecessary argument. The only comments that I made were that I felt like Luzardo had a higher ceiling (i.e., "so far") and that his age and extra year of control made him a more valuable trade commodity. When we get into comparing Cease to Luzardo (just as pitchers) it's really a personal preference. You have your opinion and I have mine, which is perfectly fine. 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

If you want to argue that Luzardo is a bigger injury risk that's fine, but tha's not how statistics work. Less data = less unknown / wider variables. 

Your arguments are all over the place.

You want to knock down Cease because of his track record but his track, over the same period of time, is better than Luzardo.

If you want Luzardo more that’s fine. But your criteria isn’t consistent at all.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

This feels like an unnecessary argument. The only comments that I made were that I felt like Luzardo had a higher ceiling (i.e., "so far") and that his age and extra year of control made him a more valuable trade commodity. When we get into comparing Cease to Luzardo (just as pitchers) it's really a personal preference. You have your opinion and I have mine, which is perfectly fine. 

No problem but your higher ceiling argument is totally subjective and not based on any evidence.

[HakunaSakata]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your arguments are all over the place.

You want to knock down Cease because of his track record but his track, over the same period of time, is better than Luzardo.

If you want Luzardo more that’s fine. But your criteria isn’t consistent at all.

I'm not making an argument, I'm offering my opinion. And when people offer their opinions on this message board 99% of the time you berate them and argue that your own opinions are "facts".  It's extremely off putting and juvenile. There are plenty of ways to convey that you disagree with someone without being an a$$hole. 

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think the values should be about the same.  Luzardo has never had a 2022 type year.  I would be nervous about trading for a pitcher w/ injury issues like Luzardo and Cease has been one of the most dependable starters in MLB.

Purely on the basis of having an extra year of control Luzardo should have more value. Cease is also further along in arbitration so relative to salary Luzardo has way more value.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not making an argument, I'm offering my opinion. And when people offer their opinions on this message board 99% of the time you berate them and argue that your own opinions are "facts".  It's extremely off putting and juvenile. There are plenty of ways to convey that you disagree with someone without being an a$$hole. 

 

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not making an argument, I'm offering my opinion. And when people offer their opinions on this message board 99% of the time you berate them and argue that your own opinions are "facts".  It's extremely off putting and juvenile. There are plenty of ways to convey that you disagree with someone without being an a$$hole. 

lol..you are the all over the map.

You have been complaining that Cease is overrated because of one good year. Luzardo is in the exact same position and yet you feel his ceiling is higher. It’s not a fact  based take.

I don’t give 2 sh!ts if you agree with me but you want to have a discussion about this but you are being nothing but disingenuous and inconsistent. I’m sorry that you don’t like the truth but that’s what you are doing and to expect to not be called out on it is absurd and very soft.

If you just said, I prefer Luzardo because he’s a lefty, had the extra year and I feel he has another level to reach, that’s fine.

But part of your argument is that he has a higher ceiling (which is factually wrong) and that Cease should be knocked down because his one great season is an outlier, but Luzardo’s  one good (ie, not nearly as good as Cease in 2022 and he did it in a better pitchers park too) season should be looked at as something better than Cease.

It’s not a logical or factual argument when you break that part of things out. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Purely on the basis of having an extra year of control Luzardo should have more value. Cease is also further along in arbitration so relative to salary Luzardo has way more value.

Cease is going to make like 2M more than Luzardo this year because Luzardo was a super 2 guy. 

[Just Regular]

Luzardo and Cease are similar for me as high school Arms who pulled ~$1.5 million bonuses.

My main impression of Luzardo is from an Orioles-adjacent incident - we were the opponent when he pitched a bad game after fracturing a pinky playing video games.    Later that summer OAK sent him to MIA for "only" a Starling Marte rental - my memory is that was recalled as a fantastic get by Kim Ng.

He put it all together last year though, and young adults can do a lot of maturing.

Marlins have a new GM so there's the wildcard whether or not the new boss likes him.    Overall with Pablo having been dealt for Arraez and Alcantara out for 2024, it feels like their moment of big Arms-Bats imbalance opposite Elias is over.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Luzardo and Cease are similar for me as high school Arms who pulled ~$1.5 million bonuses.

My main impression of Luzardo is from an Orioles-adjacent incident - we were the opponent when he pitched a bad game after fracturing a pinky playing video games.    Later that summer OAK sent him to MIA for "only" a Starling Marte rental - my memory is that was recalled as a fantastic get by Kim Ng.

He put it all together last year though, and young adults can do a lot of maturing.

Marlins have a new GM so there's the wildcard whether or not the new boss likes him.    Overall with Pablo having been dealt for Arraez and Alcantara out for 2024, it feels like their moment of big Arms-Bats imbalance opposite Elias is over.

You also wonder how much they would be willing to rely on Mayer this year. 

[24fps]

While Luzardo has some upside, I think I would rather gamble that the O's coaching staff could squeeze the best out of Cease than place a lot of faith in the continued health of a young pitcher who's already missed time with a forearm strain.

[interloper]

I will admit this thread has me changing my mind a bit on Luzardo vs Cease, from previously being more into Luzardo to now being more into Cease again. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

I will admit this thread has me changing my mind a bit on Luzardo vs Cease, from previously being more into Luzardo to now being more into Cease again. 

Either player would be a nice addition to this team. 

Both players have their pluses and minuses. Cease is a more established guy who is more of a sure thing to give you 30+ starts, where as Luzardo can help neutralize lefties and has the extra year of service time and he is younger, although I tend to agree that age doesn’t mean as much in this situation.

 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

The problem is that the Marlins are probably in a position where their fans expect them to contend again so I think they'll want MLB ready pieces. Of the names you mentioend, Kjerstad is the only one who seems to fit that description. 

I just suggested, in another comment, that a trade based around Mullins/Westberg might work. They have glaring needs in the OF and SS and that would fill two of their biggest holes. I'd hate to part with Mullins, but I think it would be worth it to land a 26 year old pitcher under contract for three more seasons. 

If Cowser isn’t ready he never will be and so is Norby. 
 

id like to peddle one of Urias or Hays in a deal. 

[Roll Tide]

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your arguments are all over the place.

You want to knock down Cease because of his track record but his track, over the same period of time, is better than Luzardo.

If you want Luzardo more that’s fine. But your criteria isn’t consistent at all.

Are you contending that Cease was better than Lazardo in 2023?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Are you contending that Cease was better than Lazardo in 2023?

How do you get that from what you quoted?