Craig Kimbrel - Signing

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Define "skeptical".  A Givens-level implosion?  Or skeptical that he's not who he was in the first half (or even on the whole of the season)?  I understand the direction, just looking for the general degree of regression.

FWIW, July looks a "reasonable" floor/worst case scenario.  Worst GB%, highest WHIP, highest HR/FB month.  And even then Cano had an xFIP of 3.41.  

This. I think hitters figured him out. As much of a feel good story as Cano was in the first half, it's not like he had a track record of success before 2022. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not sure why you're convinced we acquire a SP.  I'll maintain that they're looking for Bradish to repeat what he did, a full year of G-Rod at his 2nd half performance level (or close to it), a fully healthy Means, Kremer to be a 4th/5th and Wells/Hall/IIrvin to fill out the last spot.  

Might get some more bullpen pieces here but I think the rotation is largely set.

It’s December 6th. Cease, Bieber and Burnes are likely to be dealt and all are realistic for the Os. Glasnow will go to another landing spot that’ll limit the seller’s options. The Marlins are apparently listening on their SPs.

I’m not saying the Os will definitely get one of these guys. But I think until most of them go somewhere else, the odds are strong that the Os will land one of them.

[Sanfran327]

I think Kimbrel starts as "the guy" in the closer position, but I think that as the season evolves, we'll see more of a closer by committee approach. Who's hot, who's rested, etc. Pretty good move, but not super exciting.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

This. I think hitters figured him out. As much of a feel good story as Cano was in the first half, it's not like he had a track record of success before 2022. 

I think he also got a little fatigued.  Hyde used him extremely frequently in the first half and the effects showed.  I think he’ll be more effective than he was in the second half if Hyde can spread the work around a bit more.  

[HakunaSakata]

14 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Elias does not strike me as the type of guy who is going to just pay someone for the name alone. 

Agreed, but in reality anyone signing Kimbrel would essentially be doing just that. His name/history alone is going to be enough to get him more dollars thana pitcher with a similar skill set. I'm more concerned with the future than I am the past so what he did in his 20's means very little to me. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Might be good if he hits the injured list early in the year to keep him fresher down the stretch. 

He finished the season strong.  You should check his monthly splits.  Maybe his poor post season had nothing to do with being tired.

[Tony-OH]

How I see things assuming Kimbrel signs:

Bullpen:
Closer: Kimbrel (though others will get shots at times)
8th inning: Cano (depends on matchups) Wells could also get some play in this role depending on Cano
7th inning: Hall (depends on matchups)
Set up/Matchups: Coloumbe (LHP)
Set up/Matchups: Perez (LHP)
Set up/Matchups: Tate is healthy (Webb here if not)
Multi inning: Wells (RHP)
Multi Inning: Irvin (LHP) if he doesn't break as 5th starter.
Early starter implosion guy: Baumann/Webb/Baker/Akin

Rotation: (I'm hoping they add a top starter here)
1. Kyle Bradish
2. Grayson Rodriguez
3. John Means
4. Dean Kremer
5. (for now) Cole Irvin/Tyler Wells
 

 

[HakunaSakata]

Just now, Frobby said:

I think he also got a little fatigued.  Hyde used him extremely frequently in the first half and the effects showed.  I think he’ll be more effective than he was in the second half if Hyde can spread the work around a bit more.  

That's certainly possible too. Hyde definitely overworked him a bit (in hindsight). 

[oriole]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not sure why you're convinced we acquire a SP.  I'll maintain that they're looking for Bradish to repeat what he did, a full year of G-Rod at his 2nd half performance level (or close to it), a fully healthy Means, Kremer to be a 4th/5th and Wells/Hall/IIrvin to fill out the last spot.  

Might get some more bullpen pieces here but I think the rotation is largely set.

Wells/Hall/Irvin should be battling it out for spot starts, not the 5th starter role. I think it’d be an absolute failure of an offseason if at least one starting pitcher is not acquired. 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, RZNJ said:

So you’re totally ignoring/not believing anything Elias said about adding a starter?  No problem.  Seeing is believing but there’s plenty of smoke out there.

Yep, I totally am.

I like Elias a lot, I'm a big Elias Fanboy.  But whenever he says something about what his plans are and it gets sliced and diced and analyzed every possible which-way on here, I think it's hilarious.  You guys were the kids playing Ozzy Osbourne records backwards in the 80s looking for hidden messages. 

He is an absolute master at saying things without saying anything at all.  It's fantastic and yes, I'm totally ignoring/not believing any of it.  That's not me calling him a liar, I just think he believes whatever he's saying "in the moment" and what he said last week or last month has no bearing on what he's thinking or doing today.

[Sanfran327]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

How I see things assuming Kimbrel signs:

Bullpen:
Closer: Kimbrel (though others will get shots at times)
8th inning: Cano (depends on matchups) Wells could also get some play in this role depending on Cano
7th inning: Hall (depends on matchups)
Set up/Matchups: Coloumbe (LHP)
Set up/Matchups: Perez (LHP)
Set up/Matchups: Tate is healthy (Webb here if not)
Multi inning: Wells (RHP)
Multi Inning: Irvin (LHP) if he doesn't break as 5th starter.
Early starter implosion guy: Baumann/Webb/Baker/Akin

Rotation: (I'm hoping they add a top starter here)
1. Kyle Bradish
2. Grayson Rodriguez
3. John Means
4. Dean Kremer
5. (for now) Cole Irvin/Tyler Wells
 

 

I really like this. Concur 100%.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

How I see things assuming Kimbrel signs:

Bullpen:
Closer: Kimbrel (though others will get shots at times)
8th inning: Cano (depends on matchups) Wells could also get some play in this role depending on Cano
7th inning: Hall (depends on matchups)
Set up/Matchups: Coloumbe (LHP)
Set up/Matchups: Perez (LHP)
Set up/Matchups: Tate is healthy (Webb here if not)
Multi inning: Wells (RHP)
Multi Inning: Irvin (LHP) if he doesn't break as 5th starter.
Early starter implosion guy: Baumann/Webb/Baker/Akin

Rotation: (I'm hoping they add a top starter here)
1. Kyle Bradish
2. Grayson Rodriguez
3. John Means
4. Dean Kremer
5. (for now) Cole Irvin/Tyler Wells
 

 

That's 9 bullpen arms though. That last implosion category is going to feature some tough cuts at the end of ST if everyone is healthy. 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

He finished the season strong.  You should check his monthly splits.  Maybe his poor post season had nothing to do with being tired.

He actually only had two bad appearances in the NLCS where he lost two games back to back. He was actually very good the rest of the post season.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

It’s December 6th. Cease, Bieber and Burnes are likely to be dealt and all are realistic for the Os. Glasnow will go to another landing spot that’ll limit the seller’s options. The Marlins are apparently listening on their SPs.

I’m not saying the Os will definitely get one of these guys. But I think until most of them go somewhere else, the odds are strong that the Os will land one of them.

There were starters out there to be had last year, too.  

 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

Agreed, but in reality anyone signing Kimbrel would essentially be doing just that. His name/history alone is going to be enough to get him more dollars thana pitcher with a similar skill set. I'm more concerned with the future than I am the past so what he did in his 20's means very little to me. 

What he did at 35 warrants a 1/10 or even a 1/12 contract in this market.