Craig Kimbrel - Signing

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Because I watched him temporarily lose his job to Jose Alvarado last season because he was so bad in April and May and then watched him implode again in August and the playoffs. I just don't think Kimbrel is a set it and forget it closer at this point in his career, and that would have been the only type of closer I would have ponied up for (either money wise or via a trade). Otherwise, I would have just focused more on signing a good bullpen arm will less closing experience. To me the closing experience part isn't that important, but I guess Elias is of a different mindset. 

Contending teams don't just bet that a "good relief pitcher" can close. Baseball history is littered with guys who can't handle the pressure of closing.

Kimbrel had a bad start to year last year, no doubt. But after his awful May 3rd appearance, he pitched to a 2.21 ERA over his last 57 innings holding batters to a .162/.246/.293/.538 slash line. I'll take that as closer.    

[HakunaSakata]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

What he did at 35 warrants a 1/10 or even a 1/12 contract in this market.

We'll have to wait and see the numbers, but my suspicion is that Kimbrel might get more per year then players like Neris or Robertson. Will he be any better than them? I'm not so sure. That's the point I was trying to make. 

[Safelykept]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Where does Hall fit on our roster?  Did you notice how he was used in September and the playoffs.

4 lefties. 5 lefties.  I don’t care.  If Tate is back, this is the bullpen.  Why is it hard to carry 4 LHP?

Kimbrel

Hall

Cano

Wells

Coulombe

Tate

Perez

Irvin

 

Tate??, I sure hope so, Wishful thinking

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I would as well. The lengths folks are going to manipulate data to hide Kimbrel's warts is wild! 

Who is manipulating data? You are being ridiculous. Whatever your hate for this guy is, it's unfounded. You've been proven wrong, not with manipulation, but with actual stats that matter. No one is cherry picking anything. 

Feel free to hate the signing and player all you want, but the stats say this is a great signing and the more I dig into his numbers the more I like what I see from him last year after the bad start. Last year's poor start was an outlier to his career.

[sportsfan8703]

Isn’t the goal to gradually build SP innings?  If so, why are we giving up on Wells as a SP?  What if he expounds on his 2023 1st half and carries that deeper into 2024?  The AL leader in WHIP at the ASB. That’s not a luck stat. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

We'll have to wait and see the numbers, but my suspicion is that Kimbrel might get more per year then players like Neris or Robertson. Will he be any better than them? I'm not so sure. That's the point I was trying to make. 

Well, Robertson and had his own problems after going to the Marlins.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he got less than Kimbrel.  Neris had decent numbers but there’s no doubt my confidence is higher with Kimbrel.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Tate??, I sure hope so, Wishful thinking

Probably.  If not Tate then Webb or Baumann.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Isn’t the goal to gradually build SP innings?  If so, why are we giving up on Wells as a SP?  What if he expounds on his 2023 1st half and carries that deeper into 2024?  The AL leader in WHIP at the ASB. That’s not a luck stat. 

Wells has broken down 3 years in a row.   Can’t build up innings if you can’t pitch.

[Safelykept]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

How I see things assuming Kimbrel signs:

Bullpen:
Closer: Kimbrel (though others will get shots at times)
8th inning: Cano (depends on matchups) Wells could also get some play in this role depending on Cano
7th inning: Hall (depends on matchups)
Set up/Matchups: Coloumbe (LHP)
Set up/Matchups: Perez (LHP)
Set up/Matchups: Tate is healthy (Webb here if not)
Multi inning: Wells (RHP)
Multi Inning: Irvin (LHP) if he doesn't break as 5th starter.
Early starter implosion guy: Baumann/Webb/Baker/Akin

Rotation: (I'm hoping they add a top starter here)
1. Kyle Bradish
2. Grayson Rodriguez
3. John Means
4. Dean Kremer
5. (for now) Cole Irvin/Tyler Wells
 

 

Tony, you're good but you're discounting Wells, not because you have him in the BP but because  you have him as a long man Wells is back end BP 

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Contending teams don't just bet that a "good relief pitcher" can close. Baseball history is littered with guys who can't handle the pressure of closing.

Kimbrel had a bad start the year last year, no doubt. But after his awful May 3rd appearance, he pitched to a 2.21 ERA over his last 57 innings holding batters to a .162/.246/.293/.538 slash line. I'll take that as closer.    

I get that, but I think there were probably cheaper / possibly better alternatives available with "some" closing experience. Guys like Neris, Robertson, etc. And yes, we'll be very happy if Kimbrel can repeat those numbers, but again, he wasn't able to sustain that level over the course of the full season. That's my worry and what I meant by him not being a set it and forget it guy. At least not to me. For context, I think there are probably only about 10 closers in all of MLB who meet that criteria. Guys like Clase, Hader, Bednar, Romano, Diaz, Williams, Bautista (when he's healthy), Williams, Duran, and Munoz.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Isn’t the goal to gradually build SP innings?  If so, why are we giving up on Wells as a SP?  What if he expounds on his 2023 1st half and carries that deeper into 2024?  The AL leader in WHIP at the ASB. That’s not a luck stat. 

I think he'll be stretched out as a starter in ST, but if you believe we'll acquire a SP, somebody has to get bounced. That acquisition is either replacing Kremer or Wells, so take your pick. One of them pitched 172 innings last year and one hit a fatigue wall. So... do the math!

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Isn’t the goal to gradually build SP innings?  If so, why are we giving up on Wells as a SP?  What if he expounds on his 2023 1st half and carries that deeper into 2024?  The AL leader in WHIP at the ASB. That’s not a luck stat. 

If the Orioles don't acquire another starter, then he will get every opportunity to win a rotation spot again. But it's been discussed ad nauseum the reasons why it's too late to expect 175 innings from Wells in other threads. 

If they need to use him for the first half again then I'd be ok with that, but if they acquire a top starter that they need, he's going to be depth behind the current four (Bradish, Grod, Means, Kremer). Also, we all know his stuff plays in relief though his penchant of giving up homers means I would not want him closing or in one run games late with power hitters coming up.

 

[Rbiggs2525]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Who is manipulating data? You are being ridiculous. Whatever your hate for this guy is, it's unfounded. You've been proven wrong, not with manipulation, but with actual stats that matter. No one is cherry picking anything. 

Feel free to hate the signing and player all you want, but the stats say this is a great signing and the more I dig into his numbers the more I like what I see from him last year after the bad start. Last year's poor start was an outlier to his career.

Very well put. Let’s wait to see the numbers too. Unlike some of the other free agents Kimbrel legacy is on the line. Signing for a 100 win team with a closer position open is more valuable to him than a player like Hicks. The Hall of Fame is very well in reach for this player. 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yep, I totally am.

I like Elias a lot, I'm a big Elias Fanboy.  But whenever he says something about what his plans are and it gets sliced and diced and analyzed every possible which-way on here, I think it's hilarious.  You guys were the kids playing Ozzy Osbourne records backwards in the 80s looking for hidden messages. 

He is an absolute master at saying things without saying anything at all.  It's fantastic and yes, I'm totally ignoring/not believing any of it.  That's not me calling him a liar, I just think he believes whatever he's saying "in the moment" and what he said last week or last month has no bearing on what he's thinking or doing today.

See I disagree with this. I find Elias to be pretty forthcoming. What he says he wants to do, he generally does.

 

Yes, there is always some level of GM Speak but when talking about what he wants to do for the team, he has pretty much always come through.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Sports Guy

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Probably.  If not Tate then Webb or Baumann.

Baumann is another guy that like Wells catches flack for running out of steam in a new role with the mlb club in 2023. Baumann was pretty good before he ran outta steam. We gotta build these young guy’s innings up.