MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[Just Regular]

We'll also pay Kimbrel most of a 14th million with a decent season.    13 million will have terrible ROI if he doesn't attain most of these bonuses.

• 2024 performance bonuses:
  • $100,000 each for 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 games pitched
  • $100,000 each for 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, games finished

[Sports Guy]

 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Especially since Kimbrel costs $13 mm when his buyout is considered.  

Yep, but the player option that @Tryptamine mentioned below makes it closer. 

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

2025 club option for 9m that becomes a player option if Neris makes 60+ appearances in 2024.

Wasn't aware of the player option. Neris has had over 70 appearances in the last three years so there's a pretty good chance he hits that mark. I still think I'd take him and his contract over Kimbrel. 

1 hour ago, oriolediehard said:

I read that Neris has lost some velocity on his fastball. He is 34 years old.

You know who's older than Neris? Craig Kimbrel. And if he's lost fastball velocity it sure didn't seem to effect him last season. It was arguably his best season ever in the majors. 

[wildbillhiccup]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Another better signing than Kimbrel IMO. Between this and the Neris deal it seems like Elias might have screwed the pooch by committing to Kimbrel so early. It seems like he placed a great deal of emphasis on our replacement for Bautista needing to have significant closing experience as opposed to just being a good pitcher. I find that interesting considering he's a guy who uses advanced and predictive statistics to help gauge player performance. And the last I checked there weren't advanced stats for grit and moxie.

Ottavino would have  been a perfectly fine one your fill in for Bautista. And Neris could have easily transitioned back into an 8th inning role in 2025. Or heck, he could have signed both for just a bit more than Kimbrel. 

I don't know about you, but my initial opinion of Elias' ability to gauge the market and sign meaningful FAs is not good. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, Mychel GIvens and now Craig Kimbrel is not a very good track record. And I don't think you can blame it all on payroll constraints. It also gives me less faith in his ability to make a trade. Is it possibly that he's really good at player development, but not the other things? 

[bpilktree]

15 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Another better signing than Kimbrel IMO. Between this and the Neris deal it seems like Elias might have screwed the pooch by committing to Kimbrel so early. It seems like he placed a great deal of emphasis on our replacement for Bautista needing to have significant closing experience as opposed to just being a good pitcher. I find that interesting considering he's a guy who uses advanced and predictive statistics to help gauge player performance. And the last I checked there weren't advanced stats for grit and moxie.

Ottavino would have  been a perfectly fine one your fill in for Bautista. And Neris could have easily transitioned back into an 8th inning role in 2025. Or heck, he could have signed both for just a bit more than Kimbrel. 

I don't know about you, but my initial opinion of Elias' ability to gauge the market and sign meaningful FAs is not good. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, Mychel GIvens and now Craig Kimbrel is not a very good track record. And I don't think you can blame it all on payroll constraints. It also gives me less faith in his ability to make a trade. Is it possibly that he's really good at player development, but not the other things? 

Kyle Gibson was signed for 1 year and for under 12 million to eat innings this year and make starts he finished top 12 in innings pitched and saved the bullpen often last year.  He did exactly what they wanted from him and hit every thing they wanted.  He was cheap, he would sign for 1 year, he would make over 30 starts, and he would be near the top in innings.  How many other guys fit that last off season?  When you can only sign a guy for 1 year there isn’t a lot of options for good players.  I like Neris and he would have signed with us that would been fin but his and Kimbril contract are basically about same one for more money and one for most likely longer terms and potentially more money.  

[wildbillhiccup]

43 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Kyle Gibson was signed for 1 year and for under 12 million to eat innings this year and make starts he finished top 12 in innings pitched and saved the bullpen often last year.  He did exactly what they wanted from him and hit every thing they wanted.  He was cheap, he would sign for 1 year, he would make over 30 starts, and he would be near the top in innings.  How many other guys fit that last off season?  When you can only sign a guy for 1 year there isn’t a lot of options for good players.  I like Neris and he would have signed with us that would been fin but his and Kimbril contract are basically about same one for more money and one for most likely longer terms and potentially more money.  

Eat innings is about the only think Kyle Gibson did well last season. I'm not sure how you can look back on a pitcher that posted a 4.72 ERA and consider him a good signing/success. Especially when you look at how much better several other pitchers who signed one year deals were. Wade Miley, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen, and Mike Clevinger all  performed significantly better than Kyle Gibson. In hindsight it's kind of mind boggling that a stat oriented GM thought a pitcher coming off two straight seasons with a 5.00+ ERA would be a good investment. 

I'd also take Hector Neris all day every day over Craig Kimbrel. And with his club option they could have had an elite set up man for Felix Baustista in 2025 at a very affordable price. 

 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Another better signing than Kimbrel IMO. Between this and the Neris deal it seems like Elias might have screwed the pooch by committing to Kimbrel so early. It seems like he placed a great deal of emphasis on our replacement for Bautista needing to have significant closing experience as opposed to just being a good pitcher. I find that interesting considering he's a guy who uses advanced and predictive statistics to help gauge player performance. And the last I checked there weren't advanced stats for grit and moxie.

Ottavino would have  been a perfectly fine one your fill in for Bautista. And Neris could have easily transitioned back into an 8th inning role in 2025. Or heck, he could have signed both for just a bit more than Kimbrel. 

I don't know about you, but my initial opinion of Elias' ability to gauge the market and sign meaningful FAs is not good. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, Mychel GIvens and now Craig Kimbrel is not a very good track record. And I don't think you can blame it all on payroll constraints. It also gives me less faith in his ability to make a trade. Is it possibly that he's really good at player development, but not the other things? 

Yeah, you lost me when you included Gibson as a bad signing.  Neris, Ottavino, and Kimbrel were all rated about the same in value on Savant so  you can make the case for signing the other two.   Of course, Neris, as you mentioned, had kind of a career year, and just signed so maybe he doesn’t sign for 9M back in December.   We paid more for the guy we wanted.  94 K’s in 69 IP.  Kimbrel still has more swing and miss than the other two.  It’s arguable but I’d rather have Kimbrel as closer heading into the season than either of the other two.

As for trades, Elias has an uneven SSS but I kind of like this combination.

Trey Mancini (-.5 war with Astros, released from Cubs about a year from being traded by the Orioles) + Jorge Lopez ( 0 war in 2022 after the trade, -.2 war and released in 2023). for:

1. Chayce McDermott

2. Seth Johnson

3. Cade Povich

4. Yennier Cano

5. Juan Nunez (top 30 reliever type that sits mid 90’s)

6. Juan Rojas

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, you lost me when you included Gibson as a bad signing.

 

3 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Eat innings is about the only think Kyle Gibson did well last season. I'm not sure how you can look back on a pitcher that posted a 4.72 ERA and consider him a good signing/success. Especially when you look at how much better several other pitchers who signed one year deals were. Wade Miley, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen, and Mike Clevinger all  performed significantly better than Kyle Gibson. In hindsight it's kind of mind boggling that a stat oriented GM thought a pitcher coming off two straight seasons with a 5.00+ ERA would be a good investment.

 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Eat innings is about the only think Kyle Gibson did well last season. I'm not sure how you can look back on a pitcher that posted a 4.72 ERA and consider him a good signing/success. Especially when you look at how much better several other pitchers who signed one year deals were. Wade Miley, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen, and Mike Clevinger all  performed significantly better than Kyle Gibson. In hindsight it's kind of mind boggling that a stat oriented GM thought a pitcher coming off two straight seasons with a 5.00+ ERA would be a good investment. 

I'd also take Hector Neris all day every day over Craig Kimbrel. And with his club option they could have had an elite set up man for Felix Baustista in 2025 at a very affordable price. 

 

Elite setup man?  Mind boggling?   Have you gone off the deep end?  LOL

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Elite setup man?  Mind boggling?   Have you gone off the deep end?  LOL

Have you? Neris was an elite back end reliever/set up guy in 2023 and has been for most of his career. Is it really  that "mind boggling" to think he could have closed for the Orioles in 2024 and gone back to being an elite set up guy in 2025 (once Felix came back)? 

[RZNJ]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

Have you? Neris was an elite back end reliever/set up guy in 2023 and has been for most of his career. Is it really  that "mind boggling" to think he could have closed for the Orioles in 2024 and gone back to being an elite set up guy in 2025 (once Felix came back)? 

Career year in 2023 at 34 is exactly why I would be wary.   His bottom line numbers were good but the fastball did drop from 94.4 to 93, the walks were high and the strikeouts ok.   I’d be a lot mor nervous heading into the season with Neris as closer although I’m a little nervous with Kimbrel.

As for Gibson, we got what we paid for.   Probably more.   

[Billy F-Face3]

6 hours ago, bpilktree said:

2 million base with 2.5 million buyout or 8.5 million 2nd year.  So comes to 1 year 4,5 million or 2 years 10.5 million.  

I don't care how controversial he is on this message board... The Royals are getting a good deal, with that salary based on the clutch hits/go ahead RBIs he provided for the Orioles last season.

We just don't need him this year with all the other infield talent we have that is Big League ready. 

I'm also slightly disappointed to see Neris come off the board when we could have given him Frazier's 2022 salary or dumped Mateo or Ortiz's costs to make room for it. 

I've yet to do the math to see how much payroll had increased because of arbitration year pay increases. (I don't know if the pay raises negate the $18M we saved from letting Frazier & Gibson & the MiL free agents walk.)

[Jammer7]

To say Ottavino or Nero’s is a better closer than Kimbrel, that’s funny. If, at the end of the season, it turns out that way, fine. Kimbrel has been a far superior closer than either over their careers. If you are talking about overall value for the money, ok, maybe. I can see that argument, not that I agree. And maybe he pursued them, but they chose other teams for whatever reason. 

To say Elias has screwed the pooch, good lord. They won 101 games in 2023, or did you forget? But the GM who built that team apparently doesn’t know much about his job? There are factors here we do not know everything about. The only obvious things are that Angelos does handcuff us financially and Elias will not just overpay and give away prospects. Good for Elias to hold onto his top guys. I will defend the Gibson signing, now the Frazier salary of $8 million was too rich for me. Frazier did show up big for us with a few clutch hits to win big games, though. 

To look at Gibson’s 2023 season stats and point to the ERA of 4.70, you have to add in the 190 innings and 17 quality starts. He saved the pen on some other nights and stayed in longer than maybe he should have. And, he provided veteran leadership to a bunch of young guys who had never been successful MLB starters, much less in the playoff hunt.

FA’s are signing now for less than they would have earlier. Their market has dwindled some at this point. The market moved slower this year, obviously. There are still some options out there. We’ll see what happens.

I get the disappointment of not adding a top starter yet. However, Kimbrel blew less saves last year than Bautista, just for the record. And he’ll have a better defense in Baltimore than he had in Philly. We lost very little. We get Means and Tate back, though we cannot be certain what they’ll give us. We’ll have other injuries as well. Bradish and Rodriguez should improve upon 2023. Kremer should be somewhat similar to 2023. Other GM’s are banking on Elias getting desperate, and making the mistake of overpaying and jeopardizing the long term future of the organization. 

[Can_of_corn]

Plenty of folks remind us daily of the 101 wins.

Time to prove it again this year and maybe win some playoff games this time.

I don't care for the Kimbrel signing, he's had issues in the playoffs the last two years.  He's not a guy I want on the mound in October.

[Malike]

I can't believe that Hector Neris is being called an elite back of the bullpen guy. His FIP last year was 3.83 and xFIP 4.45. In 10 years in the bigs he's been worth 7 WAR. In which multiverse does that suggest elite back of the pen pitcher?