MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Having been on here for a long time, it's not surprising to see that the stance has flipped.  People were so quick to get down on Cowser, so quick to hoist up Kjerstad in extremely small sample sizes last year AND ACKNOWLEDGE they were basing everything off said small sample sizes.

What happens in meaningless* spring training at bats?  Cowser is now a favorite, Kjerstad is looked at as somewhat expendable.  Which way the wind blows, so does the opinion of prospects on here.

*As I've learned earlier this spring, ST at bats are meaningless for veterans no one cares about and certainly don't mean anything for a veteran on a heater that no one particularly likes.  But they mean EVERYTHING for prospects that people are interested in.

You're right, of course. And then you have the interesting wrinkle of "oh god our rotation might be kind of a mess" with the two injuries, and the subsequent weakening of the bullpen as a result. So now you've got spring training small sample madness mixed with this desire to trade for more pitching and it's enough for guys like me, who have been Team Kjerstad, to be like... wellllllll, Cowser does look better in CF, maybe Kjerstad is kind of a clunky defender and maybe we can afford to trade his powerrrrr.... 

Also, all these guys are good. So that only increases the flip flopping. 

[kidrock]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Having been on here for a long time, it's not surprising to see that the stance has flipped.  People were so quick to get down on Cowser, so quick to hoist up Kjerstad in extremely small sample sizes last year AND ACKNOWLEDGE they were basing everything off said small sample sizes.

What happens in meaningless* spring training at bats?  Cowser is now a favorite, Kjerstad is looked at as somewhat expendable.  Which way the wind blows, so does the opinion of prospects on here.

*As I've learned earlier this spring, ST at bats are meaningless for veterans no one cares about and certainly don't mean anything for a veteran on a heater that no one particularly likes.  But they mean EVERYTHING for prospects that people are interested in.

I certainly don't think I can place a value on anything in spring training one way or the other.  Its hard to tell who is experimenting, trying something new or just not going hard.  But it never hurts to see plate discipline, hard contact, pitchers throwing strikes with good velocity etc.  Again, nothing to base anything really on, but maybe slightly helpful nonetheless.

[interloper]

Just now, kidrock said:

I certainly don't think I can place a value on anything in spring training one way or the other.  Its hard to tell who is experimenting, trying something new or just not going hard.  But it never hurts to see plate discipline, hard contact, pitchers throwing strikes with good velocity etc.  Again, nothing to base anything really on, but maybe slightly helpful nonetheless.

I agree with this. I look for velocity from pitchers (and get overly worried about someone each year, which usually ends up being meaningless), guys hitting the ball hard, professional-looking ABs regardless of outcome, and defense. 

Ks are tough - like, with some Ks we can see if the batter is just out of his depth, or if he's just a little off with timing. Like when Jud Fabian or Dylan Beavers gets into a game late and get blown away instantly by the other team's minor league guys, that's different than Holliday striking out against ML pitching he's never seen before while mixing in a bunch of XBH. 

[sportsfan8703]

Kjerstad has always been behind Cowser IMO because of the defense.  I'm hoping that Cowser got sucked into sort of what Gunnar did when he was first called up, in that he was being too patient.  Cowser is poised to have a good season.  Either as the CF if Mullins is out or in the 4th OF rotation type of role.  

If Kjerstad, Norby, and Povich, could land Cease, then we should be all over that.  

Those three guys are spare parts.  Cease would fill a rotation need for two years.  He'd also kick Wells to the pen, which makes the pen a heckuva lot better and more stable.  

Edited March 13 by sportsfan8703

[interloper]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Kjerstad has always been behind Cowser IMO because of the defense.  I'm hoping that Cowser got sucked into sorta what Gunnar did when he was first called up, in that he was being too patient.  Cowser is poised to have a good season.  Either as the CF if Mullins is out or in the 4th OF rotation type of role.  

If Kjerstad, Norby, and Povich, could land Cease, then we should be all over that.  

Those three guys are spare parts.  Cease would fill a rotation need for two years.  He'd also kick Wells to the pen, which makes the pen a heckuva lot better and more stable.  

I will quibble that they are "spare parts". They are some of the best depth pieces in the sport and could be huge if we get hit with a rash of injuries. I think that's the most challenging thing Elias is dealing with - how to balance trading surplus while also benefiting from the competitive advantage of having incredible depth compared to other teams. 

[Just Regular]

Norby and Povich are spare parts....Kjerstad is an aimed shot at a Kyle Tucker profile.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Norby and Povich are spare parts....Kjerstad is an aimed shot at a Kyle Tucker profile.

I don’t think they are spare parts. I think spare parts implies they aren’t valuable or don’t have good upside.

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Norby and Povich are spare parts....Kjerstad is an aimed shot at a Kyle Tucker profile.

Totally disagree. These guys are on top 100 lists. Povich is 1 of our 3 best pitching prospects. Norby is a top 10 guy in any system in the game. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think they are spare parts. I think spare parts implies they aren’t valuable or don’t have good upside.

That's not how I mean it.  I mean it as they are spare parts for us.  They're talented players.  They're just buried and all in the 24-26 age range.  If we can get Cease for them then that would be a beneficial trade to both teams.  It's just resource allocation.  A package consisting of some of Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, and Povich.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

That's not how I mean it.  I mean it as they are spare parts for us.  They're talented players.  They're just buried and all in the 24-26 age range.  If we can get Cease for them then that would be a beneficial trade to both teams.  It's just resource allocation.  A package consisting of some of Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, and Povich.

I hear you, and I'd probably make a trade like that for Cease. 

BUT - it's not without risk. With a trade of Kjerstad/Norby/Povich, your best OF depth piece is now Kyle Stowers with no one else ready for the Majors yet (Bradfield, Beavers, Fabian). With Norby gone, you no longer have a impact 2B option in AAA, which isn't a big deal with so many guys able to play 2B on the 26-man, obviously, but just saying. And Povich removes one of only a couple AAA SP who could realistically come up and start games this year. 

All of that is fine, but you do have to consider how these moves affect depth. Like I said, I'd make the trade, but it does punch a few holes in the depth for sure. 

Edited March 13 by interloper

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Totally disagree. These guys are on top 100 lists. Povich is 1 of our 3 best pitching prospects. Norby is a top 10 guy in any system in the game. 

Spare parts in the giddy Orioles fan context like @sportsfan8703said.

I hope for Connor Norby and Cade Povich they get their bite at the apple this year.    I hope Povich has a pathway to pitch Wells or Irvin into the bullpen this month!

[sportsfan8703]

Kjerstad, Norby, and Stowers, are all just getting older here.  You can get vet AAAA/former mlb players to be your 6th OF and IF.  I'm not saying we should just give these guys away, but there value is steadily declining with age.  I doubt a Cease trade happens involving them because the CWS made two little trades for OFs this offseason to try out.  Instead they're value will be around the deadline for a reliever or another available SP.  

[24fps]

49 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Norby and Povich are spare parts....Kjerstad is an aimed shot at a Kyle Tucker profile.

With a more than reasonable chance of a Luke Scott outcome.

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, 24fps said:

With a more than reasonable chance of a Luke Scott outcome.

For sure.     Apart from the ordinary fan investment in Orioles, Kjerstad for me gets a little extra covid-sourced well wishes for his career.

Even without the disruption that maybe touched his life more particularly than many others, he probably didn't have the big high school upside like Tucker.

Elias' decisions in the aggregate have been so strong, I hope we still get to see much of what he thought Kjerstad was capable of becoming.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, 24fps said:

With a more than reasonable chance of a Luke Scott outcome.

A Stillwater, OK connection.  Just without the Holliday compound access.

An .820 OPS plays but Scott had injury issues too (calf, hammy, shiulder, foot).  Scott feels like a gòd floor case for HK though.