I don't care what Elias says, they have to - and will - make a trade

[interloper]

Elias does a pretty good job of following through on almost everything he says, at least technically. He usually leaves himself some wiggle room, but IMO he doesn't blow a lot of smoke as a GM, all things considered. Love that about him.

However. 

I believe he is full on GM-speaking when during the Winter Meetings he insinsuated that he's not pressured to make a trade, depth is good, etc. I don't buy it. He has absolutely no choice but to make at least one, and probably several, trades before the start of the season. 

As RZNJ pointed out in his 26-man roster thread, we are (for the moment) committing roster spots/money to the following players without options: McKenna, Mateo, Hilliard, Urias, Tate, Webb, and Baumann. So without simply eating the cost of several tendered contracts (or a portion of it if they are cut before a certain date - I'm iffy on that rule), the Orioles would enter the season with a bunch of optionless guys, be forced to DFA some decent MLers, and almost all of the prospects back down in AAA. 

Obviously, that's not going to happen. 

The following players are at least somewhat blocked right now: Ortiz, Stowers, probably one of Cowser/Kjerstad, Mayo, and Holliday. If Holliday earns a spot out of ST, who goes? Westburg we assume is up to stay. Frazier is gone, but with both Urias and Mateo, there's not really room unless, again, someone is DFA'd and we carry an extra infielder. Hilliard is the only obvious DFA option, though his upside is possibly greater than McKenna. But McKenna is the more pure CFer in a system devoid of decent CF options. 

And that's before we even get into the relievers. What happens with the out-of-options trio of Baumann, Tate, and Webb who all seem to be competing for one bullpen spot (good health assumed) and to whom around $3 million is currently earmarked? The only optionable relievers would be Hall and Wells, both guys we assume will be crucial. 

So as stubborn as Elias appears to be in trade negotiations, I kind of think his back is up against the wall at the end of the day. The guy simply has to make a trade - there's really no way around it. He may keep most of his prospects at the end of the day, but there's this layer of semi-valuable MLers at the end of the roster who we have to figure out what to do with at the very least. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by interloper

[sportsfan8703]

Tate has an option remaining.  

Are we really pressured to trade an OF prospect this year?  Santander is a FA after this season, then Hays and Mullins are FA the following season.  Plus Mckenna and Hilliard are out of options.  Even if we bring Hicks back into the mix, we still have the reality of turning over all 5 OF spots next offseason.  So Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, Beavers, and EBJ, could be those 5.  With Norby in the mix.  

[Otter]

Agreed.  I'm sure Elias just said that so he didn't appear desperate to other GMs.  But every GM knows we have serious position player logjams that need to be dealt with.  What's the point of accumulating and developing all this positional player talent if you aren't going to play them or trade them?  

[jamalshw]

I kind of agree with this, though don’t see it as certain as you.

You mention several option-less players, including Tate. Based on Fangraph’s roster resource page, he does still have options though I don’t know if that’s true.

In any case, I see the following players as NOT making the roster IF the season starters today (and assuming at least one more SP addition): Mike Baumann, Jacob Webb, and ONE OF: Ryan McKenna or Sam Hilliard

I have Tate, Urias and Mateo all making the roster at the moment, of course, Urias or Mateo could be dealt with Ortiz easily taking the spot.

I don't know that you NEED to move one of the RPs. You could if you get a deal you like, but there are RPs that move during the end of spring training...plus there's always some injuries. The same is true for McKenna and Hilliard. And none of them are making so much that it causes that much of a concern. 

All that said, I do expect at least one deal...and would not be at all surprised if we see Urias or Mateo in the deal or someone like Webb or Baumann. 

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Tate has an option remaining.  

Are we really pressured to trade an OF prospect this year?  Santander is a FA after this season, then Hays and Mullins are FA the following season.  Plus Mckenna and Hilliard are out of options.  Even if we bring Hicks back into the mix, we still have the reality of turning over all 5 OF spots next offseason.  So Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, Beavers, and EBJ, could be those 5.  With Norby in the mix.  

Thanks for the Tate correction.

I don't think they're pressured at all to trade an OF prospect specifically. There's much more backlog in the infield, IMO. But even more than that, it's these end-of-roster ML guys that they have to figure out what to do with who are causing the backlog in the first place. 

If Elias wants to prospect-hug and not trade for a SP, he can do that, but there's no point in prospect hugging if your ML roster is clogged with borderline guys. And you can't let a guy like Baumann get DFA'd. He's too young and useful. You can let Webb walk, but it's hard to imagine them just eating his arb salary like that. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by interloper

[Spy Fox]

I agree that I'll be very surprised if we don't see at least one trade to clear some of the playing time logjams. 

The bubble has been building for a while and it's near the point of popping. We are losing value if we keep all the MLB-quality guys we currently have, without getting them all MLB playing time.

[HakunaSakata]

Elias seems like he's hung up on chasing / waiting for the perfect trade. I can appreciate the fact that he's willing to walk away rather than overpay, but unfortunately the perfect trade isn't always going to align with when we need to make a trade. We need to make a trade this offseason. Heck, we probably need to make multiple trades. And I really think someone needs to break it to Elias that he doesn't hold all of the cards because the other GMs are very aware that signing a similar player via free agency (as an alternative to a trade) is not a realistic option for us given our budget constraints. And would a slight overpay (if that's what it takes) be the worst thing as long as he keeps are core group of younger players in tact? He has the trade chips, he just needs to stop mucking his cards and waiting for the perfect hand. 

[Frobby]

There’s no upside in Elias acting as if he’s under some pressure to make a trade.  And I doubt he feels pressure to do it.  At the same time, you have given strong reasons why it would be advantageous to make one or more trades this offseason.  It could take a while, though. 

[HakunaSakata]

4 minutes ago, Otter said:

Agreed.  I'm sure Elias just said that so he didn't appear desperate to other GMs.  But every GM knows we have serious position player logjams that need to be dealt with.  What's the point of accumulating and developing all this positional player talent if you aren't going to play them or trade them?  

...and they also know that we don't have the money to sign FA equivalents of the players we're inquring about. 

[waroriole]

I think they have to trade an OF, but definitely don’t have to move an IF. Should be able to get playing time for 4 (Gunnar, Westburg, Holliday, Ortiz) guys at 3 positions. Can also use DH and give Westburg a look at COF. 

[interloper]

Just now, Frobby said:

There’s no upside in Elias acting as if he’s under some pressure to make a trade.  And I doubt he feels pressure to do it.  At the same time, you have given strong reasons why it would be advantageous to make one or more trades this offseason.  It could take a while, though. 

Agreed on all here. I don't fault him for putting out some GM speak during the meetings - it just struck me as one of the only times I wasn't really buying it when you look at the realities of the current roster. In some ways, though, he's right that he doesn't have to trade prospects. He does, IMO, have to trade from the ML 26-man though. 

Agree that it could be awhile before we see it, and some of these could happen late in ST. 

[Aristotelian]

I would have said the same thing last year and all we got was Hernaiz for Irvin. Trading some of our redundant assets makes all the sense in the world but Elias has until now been slow to do so, so I am not sure what to expect. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think they have to trade an OF, but definitely don’t have to move an IF. Should be able to get playing time for 4 (Gunnar, Westburg, Holliday, Ortiz) guys at 3 positions. Can also use DH and give Westburg a look at COF. 

I'm not sure those 4 are getting as much time as we'd like without trading at least one of Urias or Mateo. We can't carry 6 middle infielders on the 26-man. And we're not DFAing Mateo now that he's locked in for just under $3 million. He's either on the 26-man for sure, or traded. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

Of course they have to make trades. Been talking about this for a year. Now, there are guys that they don’t necessarily have to trade right now but you basically have a calendar year to make moves for several of these guys. 
 

On top of this, you don’t draft pitching and you don’t spend on it. You have a true need and the best way to obtain that need for this team is to trade for it. So, there is no reason to hang onto players when they can help you get what you need right now. 

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course they have to make trades. Been talking about this for a year. Now, there are guys that they don’t necessarily have to trade right now but you basically have a calendar year to make moves for several of these guys. 
 

On top of this, you don’t draft pitching and you don’t spend on it. You have a true need and the best way to obtain that need for this team is to trade for it. So, there is no reason to hang onto players when they can help you get what you need right now. 

Yeah I think what I'm saying is, even if Elias make zero prospects-for-pitching trades, and keeps all his prospects, he still can't play them without making moves. Kjerstad only got on the roster when it expanded. I think when Westburg got called up, Ortiz was optioned. Mountcastle was in and out with an injury maybe. There's just no room even if you prospect-hug. And we're basically devoid of DFA-able 26-man guys other than Hilliard and maybe Webb. It's why it was kind of surprising they tendered all these guys contracts. Now they are forced to trade or eat arbitration salaries. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by interloper