I don't care what Elias says, they have to - and will - make a trade

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah I think what I'm saying is, even if Elias make zero prospects-for-pitching trades, and keeps all his prospects, he still can't play them without making moves. Kjerstad only got on the roster when it expanded. I think when Westburg got called up, Ortiz was optioned. Mountcastle was in and out with an injury maybe. There's just no room even if you prospect-hug. And we're basically devoid of DFA-able 26-man guys other than Hilliard and maybe Webb. It's why it was kind of surprising they tendered all these guys contracts. Now they are forced to trade or eat arbitration salaries. 

Well you could trade the vets and a lot of these guys have space.

[interloper]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well you could trade the vets and a lot of these guys have space.

Exactly haha. That's all I'm saying really. Something has to give. Either you trade vets or you trade prospects. IMO the Orioles can't just sit on all of their assets and do neither, because at the very least they'd just be eating money and wasting value. 

Sooner or later Elias will have to just say yes to something. Hopefully he doesn't back himself into a corner where he's getting pennies on the dollar. 

I think a guy like Baumann is actually a pretty decent second or third piece to a trade. Young reliever who throws hard with some ML success. Elias likes trading relievers. 

[HakunaSakata]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s no upside in Elias acting as if he’s under some pressure to make a trade.  And I doubt he feels pressure to do it.  At the same time, you have given strong reasons why it would be advantageous to make one or more trades this offseason.  It could take a while, though. 

You don't think Elias is under at least a bit of pressure (internal and external) to improve the team now that such a high bar has been set? And since signing notable FAs doesn't seem like an option then by default wouldn't he be under some pressure to make a trade since that's really the only way he can improve the team? And I completely get / understand that it makes sense to bank on the personal growth / development of some of our younger players making the team better, but I'm talking more about the areas in which we don't have that young depth in the pipeline, like with our pitching. 

[DirtyBird]

Let's trade for Nolan Jones.

[Ripken]

15 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You don't think Elias is under at least a bit of pressure (internal and external) to improve the team now that such a high bar has been set? And since signing notable FAs doesn't seem like an option then by default wouldn't he be under some pressure to make a trade since that's really the only way he can improve the team? And I completely get / understand that it makes sense to bank on the personal growth / development of some of our younger players making the team better, but I'm talking more about the areas in which we don't have that young depth in the pipeline, like with our pitching. 

While he's certainly never going to say it publicly, Elias has to move some guys around.  Mateo and Urias should not BOTH be on the Orioles this year.  I would not keep either.  Likewise, one of Hays/Santander/Mounty should really be moved.  If he doesn't do that, Stowers, Norby and Ortiz will pay for it.  Prospects lose value as they hit their mid 20s, veteran players get more expensive in arbitration and the Orioles would really benefit from another good starting pitcher, which they certainly aren't going to purchase from FA.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I'm not sure those 4 are getting as much time as we'd like without trading at least one of Urias or Mateo. We can't carry 6 middle infielders on the 26-man. And we're not DFAing Mateo now that he's locked in for just under $3 million. He's either on the 26-man for sure, or traded. 

Trade both of them. You probably have a little time since I doubt Holliday starts on the OD roster. 

[Tony-OH]

One aspect of this that was not mentioned, or at least I didn't see it as I perused the thread so if I missed it I apologize, but this is one of the limitations of the draft strategy that ignored pitchers in the top three rounds until this year. 

Acquire the bats and trade for the arms makes sense, except that everyone knows that's your strategy. The other thing is that pitching tends to weed itself out through more injuries than position players so there are less guys available to acquire. 

Established starting pitchers who's had a at least one TOR year and are available are going to cost multiple top prospects, but Elias 9perhaps rightfully so) is reluctant to trade them and probably prefers to trade from the Norby, Stowers, Ortiz types. unfortunately, they don't seem to the the types of players other teams covet.

I was happy to see Elias change their philosophy last year because the position player bubble has gotten to the point that they are backed up in AAA and either Elias is risk adverse in trading them or is not getting the deals he wants because teams know they are backed up.

From a business standpoint, it makes sense to have Norby, Stowers, Cowser-types sitting in AAA ready to go, but at some point, these guys are going to get frustrated knowing they should be playing in the major leagues somewhere. 

Hopefully Elias will makes some trades because with all the guys he tendered contracts to, either he's planning on bringing basically the same team back or building his depth so he can actually makes some trades.

[Ripken]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

One aspect of this that was not mentioned, or at least I didn't see it as I perused the thread so if I missed it I apologize, but this is one of the limitations of the draft strategy that ignored pitchers in the top three rounds until this year. 

Acquire the bats and trade for the arms makes sense, except that everyone knows that's your strategy. The other thing is that pitching tends to weed itself out through more injuries than position players so there are less guys available to acquire. 

Established starting pitchers who's had a at least one TOR year and are available are going to cost multiple top prospects, but Elias 9perhaps rightfully so) is reluctant to trade them and probably prefers to trade from the Norby, Stowers, Ortiz types. unfortunately, they don't seem to the the types of players other teams covet.

I was happy to see Elias change their philosophy last year because the position player bubble has gotten to the point that they are backed up in AAA and either Elias is risk adverse in trading them or is not getting the deals he wants because teams know they are backed up.

From a business standpoint, it makes sense to have Norby, Stowers, Cowser-types sitting in AAA ready to go, but at some point, these guys are going to get frustrated knowing they should be playing in the major leagues somewhere. 

Hopefully Elias will makes some trades because with all the guys he tendered contracts to, either he's planning on bringing basically the same team back or building his depth so he can actually makes some trades.

I think most of us are saying something along these lines.  If you don't draft pitching, and you don't pay for pitching, you gotta trade for pitching.

Beyond the other thoughts here, if he really can't move some players around for help now, he should move them for lower level prospects.  If, for example, Elias moved Norby, Stowers, Urias and Hays for some good 18-20 year old kids, I'd be okay with that, too.  Just get value back somewhere because several of these guys are soon going to be worth less.  To say nothing of letting deserving players get a shot in the Majors.

[interloper]

On the non-prospect trade front, could Hays bring a Verdugo-type return?

Hays: 28, career .751, career 9 rWAR, 2 years of control
Verdugo: 27, career .765, career 11.1 rWAR, 1 year of control

Verdugo is the slightly better player, but Hays has the extra year of control. The Red Sox received 3 pitchers of varying quality: 23-yo Fitts who projects as a back-end SP, 28-yo Weissert who should be a ML relief option for Boston, and 22-yo Judice who is an enormous (6'8, 230) relief prospect. 

That's honestly a pretty great return for one year of a Hays-like type of player. I would be pretty thrilled to get even 2 out of 3 of those guys for Hays. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by interloper

[Yardball85]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Exactly haha. That's all I'm saying really. Something has to give. Either you trade vets or you trade prospects. IMO the Orioles can't just sit on all of their assets and do neither, because at the very least they'd just be eating money and wasting value. 

Sooner or later Elias will have to just say yes to something. Hopefully he doesn't back himself into a corner where he's getting pennies on the dollar. 

I think a guy like Baumann is actually a pretty decent second or third piece to a trade. Young reliever who throws hard with some ML success. Elias likes trading relievers. 

Right.  It's poor asset management.  Not saying Elias won't make a trade, and he has no need to tell the media he is looking to make a trade, but he really should before SPT starts. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

On the non-prospect trade front, could Hays bring a Verdugo-type return?

Hays: 28, career .751, career 9 rWAR, 2 years of control
Verdugo: 27, career .765, career 11.1 rWAR, 1 year of control

Verdugo is the slightly better player, but Hays has the extra year of control. The Red Sox received 3 pitchers of varying quality: a 23-year old Fitts who projects as a back-end SP, 28 yo Weissert who should be a ML relief option for Boston, and 22 yo Judice who is an enormous (6'8, 230) relief prospect. 

That's honestly a pretty great return for one year of a Hays-like type of player. I would be pretty thrilled to get even 2 out of 3 of those guys for Hays. 

Aside from the extra year of control, that seems like a pretty good comp. And trading Hays (as opposed to Santander or Mullins) probably makes sense since whoever we replace him with (Stowers, Cowser, etc.) would have much smaller offensive shoes to fill. The more I think about it, the more I think Hays, Mountcastle and Mateo or Urias (if they're worth anything) are the players it makes the most sense to trade. And if we have a chance to land a stud SP, I think Westberg should be in play. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

You don't think Elias is under at least a bit of pressure (internal and external) to improve the team now that such a high bar has been set? And since signing notable FAs doesn't seem like an option then by default wouldn't he be under some pressure to make a trade since that's really the only way he can improve the team? And I completely get / understand that it makes sense to bank on the personal growth / development of some of our younger players making the team better, but I'm talking more about the areas in which we don't have that young depth in the pipeline, like with our pitching. 

He’s not under any real pressure unless the team is a disappointment this year.  He’s built up a lot of credit over the last two years.

[sportsfan8703]

Worst case scenario is that we have to do a trade like the Dodgers-Yankees just pulled off.  Those trades are rare, but one just happened.  Next off season, or even the deadline, we might trade Stowers for a prospect that is at a lower level.  Same with Norby.  Although, I like that Norby is RH.  Norby has value to us as a RH bat if he can be playable at 2B/3B/RF/LF/1B.  He could be a platoon bat with all the LH hitters we have.  

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Ripken said:

I think most of us are saying something along these lines.  If you don't draft pitching, and you don't pay for pitching, you gotta trade for pitching.

Beyond the other thoughts here, if he really can't move some players around for help now, he should move them for lower level prospects.  If, for example, Elias moved Norby, Stowers, Urias and Hays for some good 18-20 year old kids, I'd be okay with that, too.  Just get value back somewhere because several of these guys are soon going to be worth less.  To say nothing of letting deserving players get a shot in the Majors.

I’m going to be semi-contrarian.  First, the team has traded for a good bit of pitching — Bradish, McDermott, Povich, Johnson and others.  Second, the pitching already here is underrated - they allowed the 7th fewest runs in the majors last year.  Third, the team has now turned its attention to drafting more pitchers, as shown in the 2023 draft.  So, I think the idea that our team is significantly unbalanced  between hitting and pitching is greatly exaggerated.  I think the imperative of trading some hitters for pitchers is more driven by a surplus of hitters and not really a big shortage of pitchers.  

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to be semi-contrarian.  First, the team has traded for a good bit of pitching — Bradish, McDermott, Povich, Johnson and others.  Second, the pitching already here is underrated - they allowed the 7th fewest runs in the majors last year.  Third, the team has now turned its attention to drafting more pitchers, as shown in the 2023 draft.  So, I think the idea that our team is significantly unbalanced  between hitting and pitching is greatly exaggerated.  I think the imperative of trading some hitters for pitchers is more driven by a surplus of hitters and not really a big shortage of pitchers.  

I tend to agree. 

While it would be nice to trade some prospect depth for SP... if they don't, ok, but they need to at least make room for said prospect depth by trading from the ML roster. Which is where I think Elias, no matter what, will be forced to eventually make some moves on the fringes. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by interloper