I don't care what Elias says, they have to - and will - make a trade

[HakunaSakata]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to be semi-contrarian.  First, the team has traded for a good bit of pitching — Bradish, McDermott, Povich, Johnson and others.  Second, the pitching already here is underrated - they allowed the 7th fewest runs in the majors last year.  Third, the team has now turned its attention to drafting more pitchers, as shown in the 2023 draft.  So, I think the idea that our team is significantly unbalanced  between hitting and pitching is greatly exaggerated.  I think the imperative of trading some hitters for pitchers is more driven by a surplus of hitters and not really a big shortage of pitchers.  

Maybe the pitching versus hitting statement needs to be quantified a bit. For example, what if I said that we have an imbalance of MLB ready hitters versus MLB ready pitchers. Is that a statement you can get behind? And in terms of last season, we're already down one starting pitcher in Gibson with no obvious in house candidate to fill his spot. So the urgency I see is more for this season than it is long term. Then it just comes down to personal preference. Would you rather see them sign a mediocre to below average pitcher or trade for a good pitcher? I'd prefer the latter.

 

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Maybe the pitching versus hitting statement needs to be quantified a bit. For example, what if I said that we have an imbalance of MLB ready hitters versus MLB ready pitchers. Is that a statement you can get behind? And in terms of last season, we're already down one starting pitcher in Gibson with no obvious in house candidate to fill his spot. So the urgency I see is more for this season than it is long term. Then it just comes down to personal preference. Would you rather see them sign a mediocre to below average pitcher or trade for a good pitcher? I'd prefer the latter.

 

I agree with all you said except the in house guy replacing Gibson is Means. I do think there is a good chance he is better than Gibson, although he may not pitch as many innings. But we may be able to upgrade Kremer/Wells/Irvin and push Means to the back end. 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Maybe the pitching versus hitting statement needs to be quantified a bit. For example, what if I said that we have an imbalance of MLB ready hitters versus MLB ready pitchers. Is that a statement you can get behind? And in terms of last season, we're already down one starting pitcher in Gibson with no obvious in house candidate to fill his spot. So the urgency I see is more for this season than it is long term. Then it just comes down to personal preference. Would you rather see them sign a mediocre to below average pitcher or trade for a good pitcher? I'd prefer the latter.

 

I’d much rather see them trade for a good pitcher.  As somebody posted in another thread, if the pitcher doesn’t figure to be in our playoff rotation, I don’t want him.  

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d much rather see them trade for a good pitcher.  As somebody posted in another thread, if the pitcher doesn’t figure to be in our playoff rotation, I don’t want him.  

Meaning another team would need to be willing to trade a playoff rotation caliber pitcher 

[Spy Fox]

52 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Maybe the pitching versus hitting statement needs to be quantified a bit. For example, what if I said that we have an imbalance of MLB ready hitters versus MLB ready pitchers. Is that a statement you can get behind? And in terms of last season, we're already down one starting pitcher in Gibson with no obvious in house candidate to fill his spot. So the urgency I see is more for this season than it is long term. Then it just comes down to personal preference. Would you rather see them sign a mediocre to below average pitcher or trade for a good pitcher? I'd prefer the latter.

I'd say that we actually have two obvious-ish candidates to fill Gibson's spot, in Wells and Irvin. And I'm sure that's how the O's will spin it if they don't add another SP. 

But, as others are saying, the real reason to upgrade the rotation is less because the current #5 spot is a gaping whole, and more because we want to better ensure that we have a great top-half of the rotation come playoff time. 

I actually think, just like with position players, we have more MLB-quality pitchers than we can give innings to. Baumann and Baker would have stayed on the MLB roster all year long for most teams. Irvin would have gotten more starts for most teams.

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

I'd say that we actually have two obvious-ish candidates to fill Gibson's spot, in Wells and Irvin. And I'm sure that's how the O's will spin it if they don't add another SP. 

But, as others are saying, the real reason to upgrade the rotation is less because the current #5 spot is a gaping whole, and more because we want to better ensure that we have a great top-half of the rotation come playoff time. 

I actually think, just like with position players, we have more MLB-quality pitchers than we can give innings to. Baumann and Baker would have stayed on the MLB roster all year long for most teams. Irvin would have gotten more starts for most teams.

If you move Wells or Irvin from the bullpen to the rotation aren't you just robbing Peter to save Paul? And we might have a quantity pitcher problem for the back end of the rotation, but calling it a quality one seems like a stretch. 

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

Elias does a pretty good job of following through on almost everything he says, at least technically. He usually leaves himself some wiggle room, but IMO he doesn't blow a lot of smoke as a GM, all things considered. Love that about him.

However. 

I believe he is full on GM-speaking when during the Winter Meetings he insinsuated that he's not pressured to make a trade, depth is good, etc. I don't buy it. He has absolutely no choice but to make at least one, and probably several, trades before the start of the season. 

As RZNJ pointed out in his 26-man roster thread, we are (for the moment) committing roster spots/money to the following players without options: McKenna, Mateo, Hilliard, Urias, Tate, Webb, and Baumann. So without simply eating the cost of several tendered contracts (or a portion of it if they are cut before a certain date - I'm iffy on that rule), the Orioles would enter the season with a bunch of optionless guys, be forced to DFA some decent MLers, and almost all of the prospects back down in AAA. 

Obviously, that's not going to happen. 

The following players are at least somewhat blocked right now: Ortiz, Stowers, probably one of Cowser/Kjerstad, Mayo, and Holliday. If Holliday earns a spot out of ST, who goes? Westburg we assume is up to stay. Frazier is gone, but with both Urias and Mateo, there's not really room unless, again, someone is DFA'd and we carry an extra infielder. Hilliard is the only obvious DFA option, though his upside is possibly greater than McKenna. But McKenna is the more pure CFer in a system devoid of decent CF options. 

And that's before we even get into the relievers. What happens with the out-of-options trio of Baumann, Tate, and Webb who all seem to be competing for one bullpen spot (good health assumed) and to whom around $3 million is currently earmarked? The only optionable relievers would be Hall and Wells, both guys we assume will be crucial. 

So as stubborn as Elias appears to be in trade negotiations, I kind of think his back is up against the wall at the end of the day. The guy simply has to make a trade - there's really no way around it. He may keep most of his prospects at the end of the day, but there's this layer of semi-valuable MLers at the end of the roster who we have to figure out what to do with at the very least. 

I think Tate (if healthy) and Webb are in the pen. Hall likely goes back to AAA to start. Wells makes the rotation only if they don’t add a starter. 
 

Elias said there was a lot of interest in our MLB roster players. One would assume that he means the ones we’d actually trade in Mateo, Urias, Hays, Santandear, Mountcastle, O’Hearn. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

If you move Wells or Irvin from the bullpen to the rotation aren't you just robbing Peter to save Paul? And we might have a quantity pitcher problem for the back end of the rotation, but calling it a quality one seems like a stretch. 

Honestly, if we could get a full year out of Wells he might be better than a lot of guys we are discussing trading for.  But that’s a huge if.  

[Ripken]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to be semi-contrarian.  First, the team has traded for a good bit of pitching — Bradish, McDermott, Povich, Johnson and others.  Second, the pitching already here is underrated - they allowed the 7th fewest runs in the majors last year.  Third, the team has now turned its attention to drafting more pitchers, as shown in the 2023 draft.  So, I think the idea that our team is significantly unbalanced  between hitting and pitching is greatly exaggerated.  I think the imperative of trading some hitters for pitchers is more driven by a surplus of hitters and not really a big shortage of pitchers.  

I don't disagree with you but I fully believe we still need another strong starter this season and that's not coming from FA or AAA.  I also didn't suggest we had to trade for just pitching.  If, for example, Elias doesn't really think Stowers can be successful in the show, and trades him for an 18 year old 3B prospect, I'm fine with that.  I just don't want to see some of these older kids rot in Norfolk.

[emmett16]

What happens if 2 or 3 of Gunnar, Hays, Santander, and Westburg (or anyone 2 or 3) get injured next year?  They have to play 162 games.  That's an insane workload that people continue to underestimate the toll it takes.  They will find a way to get everyone AB's, even if that is in AAA.  

I don't buy that any of these guys lose any value one year from now.  If anything, they will gain value by continuing to improve in one of, if not, the best player development systems in MLB.  

Elias doesn't need to do anything.  He has boat loads of talent in house.  

With all that said I continue to believe he will trade the vets to make space eventually.  Maybe not all of them, but one or two of Hays, Santander, Urias, and Mountcastle will likely be traded by this time next year.   I think Urias, Hays & Mountcastle would be the easiest to replace in the short-term.  

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

What happens if 2 or 3 of Gunnar, Hays, Santander, and Westburg (or anyone 2 or 3) get injured next year?  They have to play 162 games.  That's an insane workload that people continue to underestimate the toll it takes.  They will find a way to get everyone AB's, even if that is in AAA.  

I don't buy that any of these guys lose any value one year from now.  If anything, they will gain value by continuing to improve in one of, if not, the best player development systems in MLB.  

Elias doesn't need to do anything.  He has boat loads of talent in house.  

With all that said I continue to believe he will trade the vets to make space eventually.  Maybe not all of them, but one or two of Hays, Santander, Urias, and Mountcastle will likely be traded by this time next year.   I think Urias, Hays & Mountcastle would be the easiest to replace in the short-term.  

Prospect age is incredibly important.

Would you rather have a guy from age 21-26, 23-28, or 26-31?

If Gunnar did at 25 what he did at 22 he wouldn't be viewed nearly the same.

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Prospect age is incredibly important.

Would you rather have a guy from age 21-26, 23-28, or 26-31?

If Gunnar did at 25 what he did at 22 he wouldn't be viewed nearly the same.

You’re right but keeping Colton Cowser in AAA at age 24 doesn’t change what he did at age 23.   

[emmett16]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Prospect age is incredibly important.

Would you rather have a guy from age 21-26, 23-28, or 26-31?

If Gunnar did at 25 what he did at 22 he wouldn't be viewed nearly the same.

I realize that.  

Big difference between 22 & 25.  I don't think there is much of a difference one year from now with the guys we are discussing.  

No.  But it would be equally as valuable to his team regardless of his age.  

[Roll Tide]

I think a number of things have to happen also. I don’t know how to come into the season making it looked like we sat on our hands 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I realize that.  

Big difference between 22 & 25.  I don't think there is much of a difference one year from now with the guys we are discussing.  

No.  But it would be equally as valuable to his team regardless of his age.  

I disagree.

I'd much rather have a 22 year old prospect, maybe from another team than a 27 year old.

Stowers played at 25 this season.  If he wastes a year in the minors he's going to be 27, I don't care what year he puts up in Norfolk that makes him less attractive.