Poster Trade Ideas

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, oriole said:

Kremer, Santander, Mayo for Logan Gilbert

 

It gives the M’s the DH/COF they’re looking for, a formidable back end starter to replace Gilbert, and a very good prospect that is close to being major league ready. The difference in Santander and Gilbert’s arbitration pay (using MLBTR estimates) is $7.8m…so its adding a little to the M’s payroll but they just cleared some space and it’s still good value for Santander.

It upgrades Kremers spot in the rotation for the O’s and frees up some money to throw at Jordan Montgomery in FA. Mayo doesn’t have a spot in Baltimore and he’s pretty much ready. He is a great candidate to cash in on his prospect value IMO. 

It’s possible something else may need to be added for the M’s to make the deal, but probably nothing anywhere near our top 10.

Rotation 

Montgomery, Gilbert, Bradish, Rodriguez, Means

Lineup looks something like

CF Mullins L

C Rutschman S

SS Henderson L

1B Mountcastle R

DH Kjerstad L

LF Hays R

RF Cowser L

3B Westburg R

2B Holliday L

 

I fully concede that none of that is happening, just having fun.

I think you are are rooting for a different team then I am.

150m for Montgomery.

Giving up Mayo who I think will be with the O's for 5 or 6 years.

Good luck with that.

Edited December 22, 2023 by wildcard

[24fps]

Suggestion:  Change the thread title to "Poster Trade Ideas Except for Dylan Cease" and see if that has any impact on the direction its heading.

I'm perfectly happy with focusing on acquiring the best SP possible and mix and match the rest of the roster with current vets and our abundance of ML-ready prospects.  I don't see much else needed for 2024 except maybe one more RP so maybe this isn't the best thread for me to invest too much time in.  I'm really looking forward to watching the evolution of the 2023.

As #5 starters go, I think Kremer is a pretty good one, so I don't see any need to get rid of him - he can be next season's Gibson at a much cheaper cost with similar durability and probably better results.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Does this work both ways?  Take away Cease’s August and he has a 3.89 ERA.

Maybe I’m wrong but didn’t Kremer start late due to the WBC? I suppose you can do it both ways. He’s not my favorite target.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not even the biggest Cease supporter, but comparing Kremer to him is just...

 

 

I like to consider the actual results. Those expecting him to come here and be Cy Young behind our defense are likely to be disappointed. It’s my opinion that he’s 75% likely to be a 4 ERA pitcher. That’s obviously not bad but it’s not ACE numbers or drastically better than Kremer.

[Can_of_corn]

38 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Maybe I’m wrong but didn’t Kremer start late due to the WBC? I suppose you can do it both ways. He’s not my favorite target.

Lots of guys played in the WBC, do you have any evidence that it negatively impacted their season(aside from Diaz of course)?

[oriole]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think you are are rooting for a different team then I am.

150m for Montgomery.

Giving up Mayo who I think will be with the O's for 5 or 6 years.

Good luck with that.

I kept every prospect around except Mayo and signed one major free agent which is a glaring need on a team with payroll space. I think if those moves were made, we’d see an above average rotation, above average defense, and possibly a very dynamic offense. Maybe you look for a veteran part time DH type player? I dunno. Not sure why you think it’s that bad of an approach.

[24fps]

36 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I like to consider the actual results. Those expecting him to come here and be Cy Young behind our defense are likely to be disappointed. It’s my opinion that he’s 75% likely to be a 4 ERA pitcher. That’s obviously not bad but it’s not ACE numbers or drastically better than Kremer.

I don't remember anyone suggesting that the O's defense would turn Dylan Cease into Cy Young.  In 2023 the O's team DRS was +34 and the White Sox put up -59 or 29th out of 30 teams.  That alone indicates he will benefit from the change of scenery regardless of other factors.

75% is a specific number.  I'm curious as to how was it arrived at.

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, 24fps said:

I don't remember anyone suggesting that the O's defense would turn Dylan Cease into Cy Young.  In 2023 the O's team DRS was +34 and the White Sox put up -59 or 29th out of 30 teams.  That alone indicates he will benefit from the change of scenery regardless of other factors.

75% is a specific number.  I'm curious as to how was it arrived at.

Previous performance 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, 24fps said:

I don't remember anyone suggesting that the O's defense would turn Dylan Cease into Cy Young.  In 2023 the O's team DRS was +34 and the White Sox put up -59 or 29th out of 30 teams.  That alone indicates he will benefit from the change of scenery regardless of other factors.

75% is a specific number.  I'm curious as to how was it arrived at.

So the defensive differential between the two teams was 83 runs.  The White Sox allowed 841 runs, so about 10% of their runs allowed were as a result of inferior defense.   So, you could approximate that Cease’s ERA might decline by 10% or so if he had the Orioles’ defense behind him instead of Chicago’s.

Cease has a career 3.83 ERA pitching with Chicago’s defense behind him, so with Baltimore’s current defense maybe he’d be in the 3.50 range.  

Therefore, I’d say the odds are good that Cease would produce a sub-4.00 ERA for the Orioles.  That’s not guaranteed considering his poor year in 2023, but I still like his chances.

 

 

 

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

I have a Kathy Ireland poster I’m looking to move. Near mint condition.  Would be looking to get back an Alicia Silverstone post Clueless poster. 

[btdart20]

13 hours ago, oriole said:

Kremer, Santander, Mayo for Logan Gilbert

 

It gives the M’s the DH/COF they’re looking for, a formidable back end starter to replace Gilbert, and a very good prospect that is close to being major league ready. The difference in Santander and Gilbert’s arbitration pay (using MLBTR estimates) is $7.8m…so its adding a little to the M’s payroll but they just cleared some space and it’s still good value for Santander.

It upgrades Kremers spot in the rotation for the O’s and frees up some money to throw at Jordan Montgomery in FA. Mayo doesn’t have a spot in Baltimore and he’s pretty much ready. He is a great candidate to cash in on his prospect value IMO. 

It’s possible something else may need to be added for the M’s to make the deal, but probably nothing anywhere near our top 10.

Rotation 

Montgomery, Gilbert, Bradish, Rodriguez, Means

Lineup looks something like

CF Mullins L

C Rutschman S

SS Henderson L

1B Mountcastle R

DH Kjerstad L

LF Hays R

RF Cowser L

3B Westburg R

2B Holliday L

 

I fully concede that none of that is happening, just having fun.

Gotta say that starting lineup looks competitive even without a masher at 3B.  

M’s are looking to bring their regional sports network in house.  That’s where their payroll is going this year.  I don’t think they want to add Santander’s arb $ unfortunately.

And the underlined part is where I think you and Elias diverge.  For some players cashing out on prospect value is a goal.  For some players cashing in on MLB value is the goal.  I think Elias has MLB value on a prospect like Mayo.

TBD for sure.  You’ve put together a compelling offer though IMO.

[sportsfan8703]

1. Jose Quintana for the #5 spot. Maybe they’d want Ramon Urias and Stowers. I’ve been saying Quintana all offseason. It’s a shame his sinker is only 93mph and not 99mph. 

2. One of the Dodgers slew of SP that are in AAA/MLB, but aren’t good enough to crack their super team, but are good enough to be our #5 SP. We could offer them a prospect that isn’t on the 40 man roster.  Probably even better for them if they don’t have to be added next offseason either. So like Mac Horvath or Max Wagner for one of their MLB SP depth arms.

Wagner/Horvath for Stone/Frasso/Knack/Hurt

[clapdiddy]

34 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

1. Jose Quintana for the #5 spot. Maybe they’d want Ramon Urias and Stowers. I’ve been saying Quintana all offseason. It’s a shame his sinker is only 93mph and not 99mph. 

2. One of the Dodgers slew of SP that are in AAA/MLB, but aren’t good enough to crack their super team, but are good enough to be our #5 SP. We could offer them a prospect that isn’t on the 40 man roster.  Probably even better for them if they don’t have to be added next offseason either. So like Mac Horvath or Max Wagner for one of their MLB SP depth arms.

Wagner/Horvath for Stone/Frasso/Knack/Hurt

Going for a "#5" starter would be extremely disappointing.  

[NCRaven]

15 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not even the biggest Cease supporter, but comparing Kremer to him is just...

 

 

Oh my lord.  I can't stop.  I'm falling further and further into the rabbit hole.  Someone please make this go away!

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

Oh my lord.  I can't stop.  I'm falling further and further into the rabbit hole.  Someone please make this go away!