Drafting the bats and trading for the arms

[Jagwar]

7 hours ago, now said:

Mancini, Prieto, Hernaiz > Johnson, McDermott, Flaherty, Irvin 

(I might be forgetting some.)

Maybe I should have said he hasn't traded bats for anything to be excited about. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Well, he hasn't really traded for any arms yet, nor has he really traded any bats away (at least not any of significance). I guess there are several views on how to build a team, especially when you cash strapped by ownership. I just feel like the team is on the cusp of a championship. You never know when that will happen again. We need one more reliable pitcher to take us over that edge, I believe. This is the time to spend and get him. Yes, you might lose some future IF that you are giving up six years of control for, but how much is a championship worth? 

[owknows]

6 hours ago, 24fps said:

I think a pretty good case can be made that the O's biggest current need is a MOR (or better) ML pitcher for 2024 and while maximizing value in the lower levels is always desirable, for many of us it's a secondary priority.  I don't know about you, but I'm not going to be too happy with Elias if he's busy rearranging the rosters at Bowie and Norfolk, while Baltimore languishes.

 

 

Yeah. And as I said above, I'd probably seek to add a cheaper free agent starter to satisfy the MLB need, and save the trade capital for stocking the mid-minors with arms.

[HakunaSakata]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

Elias has built an analytic department, a scouting department, and player development department that together they just produced a 101 win team.   But you don't think all these baseball professionals under expiring prospect value?   I beg to differ.

I think Elias strives to keep the best and trade the rest.   Probably blocked prospects for minor league pitching talent that his organization can develop into major league pitchers.

As far as not knowing how or when to trade.   I think he values the 6 years of prospects control and weighs it vs what the other teams is offering.   And rightfully so.   His job is to strength the team in the short and the long term.   I have faith he will do that by FA or trades.  They don't have to be high profile moves.  They need to be smart moves.

In regards to the bolded line did you mean "don't understand"? For the sake of argument let's assume that you did. Understanding expiring prospect value and being able to either successfully 1) free up a spot for said prospects or 2) trade said prospects before their value starts to decline are two completely different things. Yes Elias and his team did a great job restocking the farm system and leading us to a 101 win season. I'd argue that it probably happened a year or two earlier the he expected and that Elias might have been counting on those years to address the hitter/pitcher disparity amongst our prospects. Now that the target has moved we're going to see how well Elias is  able to pivot and make adjustments to his original game plan. And while I appreciate your confidence in his ability to make trades to address the issues I have more of a I'll believe it when I see it mindset. In terms of trading, I'm a firm believer that you have to offer value to get value. Too many fans are hung up on "winning" trades, but it's perfectly reasonable to make balanced trades that help both teams. And like I implied in my prior post with all our prospect depth Elias is basically siting at the poker table with pocket aces (i.e., there's no excuse for him not be able to get something done). 

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, now said:

Mancini, Prieto, Hernaiz > Johnson, McDermott, Flaherty, Irvin 

(I might be forgetting some.)

No I’d much rather have the pitchers in this group. 

[Roll Tide]

19 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

This is not a new revelation, as I and others have mentioned this before, but, since the hiring of Elias and his subsequent drafts, the focus seems to have been on taking the safer hitters over the riskier pitchers.  This is a philosophy that makes sense given Elias and Sig Mejdal's deep understanding of statistical analysis. In the draft, the odds of the average hitter being a quality ML'er is higher than a pitcher.  Thus, if I'm right, a plan to draft the best bats available, especially early in the draft where the most value lies, was begun.  Part one, draft the bats.  Part two, trade for arms as needed.  I don't believe Elias has ever admitted to such a plan, which would be natural, but it seems pretty transparent given the evidence.  

So, they had/have a plan and have executed the first part to near perfection; draft the bats. 

• 2019: Adley, Gunnar, Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz (traded for Cole Irvin)... 1st pitcher taken was in round 8.
• 2020: Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo... Covid shortened draft, 1st pitcher taken was in round 5.
• 2021: Cowser, Norby... 1st pitcher taken was in round 5.
• 2022: Holliday, Beavers, Wagner, Fabian... 1st pitcher taken was in round 3.
• 2023: Bradfield, Horvath... Pitchers taken in rounds 2-4, 6-9. The system was bereft of pitching, so I feel they took arms (after two bats) to help offset that discrepancy. 

Part two is trade for pitching as needed.  The need is there, yet which bats to deal is difficult to gauge as many of these bats are just arriving at the big league level.  I get the feeling Elias will wait to add pitching at the trade deadline this Summer, once he gets a better feel of who he wants filling spots moving forward.  However, if an opportunity arises this offseason (or Spring) it wouldn't be a surprise to see him pull the trigger.  Time will tell... it always does.

What are your thoughts?

So as strong as our guys have been at drafting and developing they seem weak at trades.  Suppose not being able to trade for a difference maker is better than getting fleeced. But, our trade deadline acquisitions have bit the big one and I cam only assume it was the best he could get for what he considered a reasonable price.

[now]

21 minutes ago, waroriole said:

No I’d much rather have the pitchers in this group. 

Yeah, me too! The (>) I used meant "traded for," not "greater than."

[btdart20]

"A person of talent hits a target that no one else can hit; a person of genius hits a target that no one else can see."  -- Arthur Schopenhauer

I think Elias is targeting things we don't see.  Does he target things that other GMs aren't targeting either?  More importantly, is he hitting targets others aren't seeing?

He's been raising the floor in the past few years.  And that wasn't a target we were seeing.  Lyles, Odor, Gibson, Frazier, a scab-filled BP...  Some under/overslot drafting.  Some non-consensus early 1st round picks.  A non-traditional draft strategy.

When I see the national headline articles pushing a traditional org build agenda, I toss it.  It's easy to think traditional thoughts (trade bats for arms).  And maybe that's the path forward because Occam's razor says so.  But maybe the traditional/simplest answer isn't asking the right question?

[now]

49 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

"A person of talent hits a target that no one else can hit; a person of genius hits a target that no one else can see."  -- Arthur Schopenhauer

I think Elias is targeting things we don't see.  Does he target things that other GMs aren't targeting either?  More importantly, is he hitting targets others aren't seeing?

He's been raising the floor in the past few years.  And that wasn't a target we were seeing.  Lyles, Odor, Gibson, Frazier, a scab-filled BP...  Some under/overslot drafting.  Some non-consensus early 1st round picks.  A non-traditional draft strategy.

When I see the national headline articles pushing a traditional org build agenda, I toss it.  It's easy to think traditional thoughts (trade bats for arms).  And maybe that's the path forward because Occam's razor says so.  But maybe the traditional/simplest answer isn't asking the right question?

Good insights about smarter, less visible targeting.

Not sure I agree that trading bats for arms is a traditional thought; at least, not talked about the way we do here lately. I don't recall it ever being raised before Elias arrived with bat-heavy drafts... except as an opposing theory to the prevailing Flanagan mindset (grow the arms). Or perhaps applied to certain teams in recent decades such as Texas that were bat heavy.

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I always thought the adage was grow the arms and buy the bats. 

That was Andy MacPhail’s adage.  How’d it work out for him?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

In regards to the bolded line did you mean "don't understand"? For the sake of argument let's assume that you did. Understanding expiring prospect value and being able to either successfully 1) free up a spot for said prospects or 2) trade said prospects before their value starts to decline are two completely different things. Yes Elias and his team did a great job restocking the farm system and leading us to a 101 win season. I'd argue that it probably happened a year or two earlier the he expected and that Elias might have been counting on those years to address the hitter/pitcher disparity amongst our prospects. Now that the target has moved we're going to see how well Elias is  able to pivot and make adjustments to his original game plan. And while I appreciate your confidence in his ability to make trades to address the issues I have more of a I'll believe it when I see it mindset. In terms of trading, I'm a firm believer that you have to offer value to get value. Too many fans are hung up on "winning" trades, but it's perfectly reasonable to make balanced trades that help both teams. And like I implied in my prior post with all our prospect depth Elias is basically siting at the poker table with pocket aces (i.e., there's no excuse for him not be able to get something done). 

Elias' method appears to be trade the expensive players within reason and develop the young talented players.   In view of that I think Urias is probably traded.  O'Hearn is a FA at the end of the 2024 season.   I don't know when he will be traded (over the winter or at the trade deadline but I don't think he makes it to the end of the season.

Hays and Santander will probably not be back for 2025.  So the O's will need to keep Cowser, Kjerstad and Beavers.

Holliday has not dominated AAA yet, so I think he starts the season there.  Mayo still needs to work on this defense at 1B and 3B.  So Ortiz and Westburg are needed  to start the season at 2B and 3B.   Holliday and Mayo will probably join the team during the season which will push other off the 26 man roster.  But that happens into the season.

The guys that will need to be traded, probably for minor league pitching, are Urias, Stowers and maybe O'Hearn.   Norby is blocked and I would trade him but he is still only 23 and is not even on the 40 man yet.   We will see.

I think Elias signs a FA starter/reliever before opening day to reenforce the starters.   Bradish, GRod, Means, Kremer and Wells are good starters but there are still 20-25 starts to cover even with them in the rotation.  I don't know that Elias will trust Irvin and McDermott to cover those starts.

[Greg Pappas]

12 hours ago, owknows said:

I don't think the smarmy tone started with me.

And I have fully addressed the point.

My point is pretty simple. That while there is a difference in assessing the success rate of pitchers and position players as drafted... that difference narrows as they progress through the minors. And as they progress to and through AAA.. we have learned about as much as we can about them, from their actual play against other professional players, all at comparable level.

Hence AA and AAA pitchers don't carry nearly the risk that drafted pitchers do... as they have been vetted by their play. If those players are acquired by trade.. then the team that originally drafted them took the risk associated with getting them to that level so that we can more accurately assess their potential. Hence it is a strategic advantage to acquire mid-minor pitching for nearly ready prospects (or the players they supplant).

And more value can be concentrated using this strategy, than by spending all of those prospects (or the players they supplant) on a single established MOR MLB pitcher.

I can't make it any plainer than that. If you still don't get it... I'd have to call it willful.

And once again... the smarmy turn in our conversation originated with you. Not with me.

I had misunderstood your meaning in regards to pitching v batters by AA/AAA in response to the OP, whereas that makes sense now.  My brother and I had a chat a couple of nights ago, discussing trading high level hitting prospects for high level pitching prospects... just one or two such trades perhaps.

I really enjoy getting to understand posters like yourself that are "new" to me.  There are a lot of smart people posting here (and a lot that aren't LOL.)  While I don't always agree, I appreciate a differing and well-considered point of view.  

[HakunaSakata]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias' method appears to be trade the expensive players within reason and develop the young talented players.   In view of that I think Urias is probably traded.  O'Hearn is a FA at the end of the 2024 season.   I don't know when he will be traded (over the winter or at the trade deadline but I don't think he makes it to the end of the season.

Hays and Santander will probably not be back for 2025.  So the O's will need to keep Cowser, Kjerstad and Beavers.

Holliday has not dominated AAA yet, so I think he starts the season there.  Mayo still needs to work on this defense at 1B and 3B.  So Ortiz and Westburg are needed  to start the season at 2B and 3B.   Holliday and Mayo will probably join the team during the season which will push other off the 26 man roster.  But that happens into the season.

The guys that will need to be traded, probably for minor league pitching, are Urias, Stowers and maybe O'Hearn.   Norby is blocked and I would trade him but he is still only 23 and is not even on the 40 man yet.   We will see.

I think Elias signs a FA starter/reliever before opening day to reenforce the starters.   Bradish, GRod, Means, Kremer and Wells are good starters but there are still 20-25 starts to cover even with them in the rotation.  I don't know that Elias will trust Irvin and McDermott to cover those starts.

That’s fine, but I think the problem with that approach is the veterans, aside from Mountcastle or Mullins, have very little trade value, which goes back to my point about having to give quality to get quality. 
 

if Elias has the opportunity to trade Ortiz or Westburg for a young controllable pitcher I think it’s an educated risk that he should take. I think there’s a better than 50% chance that Holliday makes the OD roster and even if he doesn’t they can get by with some combination of Urias/Mateo for a few months until he is ready.  To me that’s a better move than potentially keeping Ortiz at AAA (if Holliday makes the team) where his value would probably start to depreciate because of his age. 

[24fps]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

"A person of talent hits a target that no one else can hit; a person of genius hits a target that no one else can see."  -- Arthur Schopenhauer

I think Elias is targeting things we don't see.  Does he target things that other GMs aren't targeting either?  More importantly, is he hitting targets others aren't seeing?

He's been raising the floor in the past few years.  And that wasn't a target we were seeing.  Lyles, Odor, Gibson, Frazier, a scab-filled BP...  Some under/overslot drafting.  Some non-consensus early 1st round picks.  A non-traditional draft strategy.

When I see the national headline articles pushing a traditional org build agenda, I toss it.  It's easy to think traditional thoughts (trade bats for arms).  And maybe that's the path forward because Occam's razor says so.  But maybe the traditional/simplest answer isn't asking the right question?

 

“Innovation, by definition, suggests change will be taking place,” Sig said. “If there’s change taking place, it’s not likely going to feel right. If it felt right, it would have been done a long time ago.”
― Ben Reiter, Astroball: The New Way to Win It All

 

The current Orioles FO has been heavily influenced by the Astros organization of the 2010's and if you look at the route Elias has taken, it makes sense thought of in that context.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, now said:

Yeah, me too! The (>) I used meant "traded for," not "greater than."

Wasnt Andy McPhail's philosopy the exact opposite?