Cowser vs Kjerstad revisited

[Sports Guy]

I believe we had an earlier discussion and/or poll (I couldn’t find it) where we were discussing Kjerstad vs Cowser and which one would you prefer to trade if you had to trade one of them.

Iirc, most people on here said they would trade Cowser before Kjerstad..I was amongst them.

But as I have thought it more and more, is that the right call?

My personal thought was that I felt the power of Kjerstad would carry over better than any other tool either player had and because of that, I gave the slight lean to Silent J.

The thing is though, Cowser seems to be the better all around player and Kjerstad has major defensive question marks it sounds like.

Because of that and because we have other DH/1B options, are we better off trading HK instead?

My hope is that we don’t have to trade either but I don’t think that’s realistic. 
 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Moose Milligan]

I agree that I hope we don't have to trade either.  

Right now, I could go either way on who gets traded, all of that depends on the return, of course.

I just think it's absurd how everyone here loves to beat the "small sample size" horse whenever they can but want to throw that out when discussing Cowser.  

I also don't know what Kjerstad did other than hitting two homers to make a lot of people a believer.  He didn't exactly dominate in his short time up in Baltimore, either.  

I believe both of these guys should be on the OD roster if they're not traded and should get as much playing time as possible.

[Frobby]

It’s a true coin flip IMO.   I was really impressed with the carry Kjerstad gets on the ball from watching his brief stint in the majors.  He’s going to hit several homers a year on balls he doesn’t really barrel.   I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t develop into a hitter at least as good as Santander.   But, he may not be any better defensively than Santander either, and could be a bit worse.   The fact that the O’s seemed pretty reluctant to put him in the field concerned me, even though I thought he looked solid out there when I watched him last spring training.

With Cowser, I really have to force myself to avoid overweighting his major league performance from last year and trust his minor league performance over a way bigger sample and the scouting reports about his defense.   I favored him over Kjerstad going into last season because of his ability to play a bit of CF and and above average corner OF, and the fact that he looked a bit shaky out there in the majors kind of undermined that.  But I still think at the end of the day he’s the better defender and will put up a better OBP (not necessarily a higher BA though).   

For me, it’s six of one and a half dozen of the other, and I wouldn’t hold up a trade because another team was demanding Kjerstad instead of Cowser or vice versa.  
 

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree that I hope we don't have to trade either.  

Right now, I could go either way on who gets traded, all of that depends on the return, of course.

I just think it's absurd how everyone here loves to beat the "small sample size" horse whenever they can but want to throw that out when discussing Cowser.  

I also don't know what Kjerstad did other than hitting two homers to make a lot of people a believer.  He didn't exactly dominate in his short time up in Baltimore, either.  

I believe both of these guys should be on the OD roster if they're not traded and should get as much playing time as possible.

I think Silent J looked more comfortable at the plate. He has also hit lefties very well in the minors.

The defense and positional issues combined with what else we have at those positions really has me questioning the best way to go here. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s a true coin flip IMO.   I was really impressed with the carry Kjerstad gets on the ball from watching his brief stint in the majors.  He’s going to hit several homers a year on balls he doesn’t really barrel.   I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t develop into a hitter at least as good as Santander.   But, he may not be any better defensively than Santander either, and could be a bit worse.   The fact that the O’s seemed pretty reluctant to put him in the field concerned me, even though I thought he looked solid out there when I watched him last spring training.

With Cowser, I really have to force myself to avoid overweighting his major league performance from last year and trust his minor league performance over a way bigger sample and the scouting reports about his defense.   I favored him over Kjerstad going into last season because of his ability to play a bit of CF and and above average corner OF, and the fact that he looked a bit shaky out there in the majors kind of undermined that.  But I still think at the end of the day he’s the better defender and will put up a better OBP (not necessarily a higher BA though).   

For me, it’s six of one and a half dozen of the other, and I wouldn’t hold up a trade because another team was demanding Kjerstad instead of Cowser or vice versa.  
 

 

I think your last thought is what I’m thinking too.  Before, I would have even very hesitant to trade Kjerstad for Cease. But now I think I’m open to either player and don’t have a big opinion of which one should go.

 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I think Silent J looked more comfortable at the plate. He has also hit lefties very well in the minors.

The defense and positional issues combined with what else we have at those positions really has me questioning the best way to go here. 

Kjerstad did look comfortable.

I also seem to remember Cowser hitting some balls hard, just right at defenders.  I don't think he was as bad as he looked.

I agree that Kjerstad looks to be a guy who inevitably winds up as a 1B/DH type.  Right now, we have that in O'Hearn and Mountcastle who aren't long term options.  But behind them we've got Mayo who looks to be a fixture and then Adley/Basallo when they're not catching.  

I'm not sure where Kjerstad fits in.  Ideally Cowser's defense slots him in a corner outfield spot.

[Spy Fox]

It's a ceiling vs floor thing for me. I think Cowser's ceiling is higher but Kjerstad is the more likely to hit his floor as a quality MLB hitter. 

Given our depth of position player prospects, I'm more drawn to the higher upside player. So I personally would rather keep Cowser and trade Kjerstad.

There's a chance that could look foolish in a year or two. But I think if we trade Kjerstad and he becomes a great power hitter but poor defender, we'll likely have a couple other guys performing well in similar roles for us. If we trade Cowser and he becomes Markakis+, we don't necessarily have another of those in the wings. 

[Sports Guy]

 Btw, my hope is the WS (if we dealt for Cease) would be good with Westburg over these 2 And we keep them and move Westburg…have Ortiz take his spot and hope HK shows further improvement in RF.

 

[sportsfan8703]

It’s a toss up. I’m human, and was heavily invested in our season last season, so to say that recency bias wouldn’t be a thing here would be untrue. With that being said… I prefer Cowser because he’s the one guy in our system that can play LF at OPACY. Kjerstad could be replaced in RF by Mayo/Beavers. Kjerstad could be replaced at 1B/DH by Mounty/AR/Basallo/DH rotation.

I just prefer Cowser’s ability to play LF in OPACY. 

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 Btw, my hope is the WS (if we dealt for Cease) would be good with Westburg over these 2 And we keep them and move Westburg…have Ortiz take his spot and hope HK shows further improvement in RF.

 

Kudos to you. You’re deep into this. Mean that as a compliment. As much as it stinks, trading Westburg as the centerpiece over Cowser/Kjerstad makes sense. Especially with Holliday and Mayo being so close, and infielders. 

[wse120372]

I think there is still some meat on the bone with developing HK. He missed so much time with some serious health issues. I'll be watching him intently this spring. Personally I think he hits another gear.

[oriole]

31 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Kudos to you. You’re deep into this. Mean that as a compliment. As much as it stinks, trading Westburg as the centerpiece over Cowser/Kjerstad makes sense. Especially with Holliday and Mayo being so close, and infielders. 

Does Westburg have comparable value to either of those two? I doubt it. It sounds like even Cowser or Kjerstad would be too low for Cease. WS would want both. They won’t get it, but that’s my understanding of how highly they value Cease.

[Jim'sKid26]

So if we look at tools, acknowledging that Cowser is a year younger, we get the following from @Tony-OH:

Cowser:

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/55
Game Power: 45/50
Raw Power: 50/55
Run: 55/55
Defense: 50/55

Kjerstadt:
Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/50
Game Power: 45/60
Raw Power: 65/65
Run: 50/45
Defense: 40/45
 

To me the thing that sticks out here is Silent J's power. On a team without a true MOO power hitter that is a skill to keep. I would trade Cowser if I had to choose.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Jim'sKid26

[btdart20]

I go back/forth on these two frequently.  Fully reserve the right to flip-flop on this one!

How much do the timelines or futures of Hays/Santander with the O's impact Cowser/HK?  If neither Hays/Santander are traded, feels like HK is most likely to get more MLB playing time because of Santander's looming FA.  Toss in Beavers, EBJ, and Fabian (and maybe even Norby) as plausible OF options before Hays (and Mullins) are FAs.

In other words, at the moment I'd trade Cowser before HK.  

[deward]

2 hours ago, oriole said:

Does Westburg have comparable value to either of those two? I doubt it. It sounds like even Cowser or Kjerstad would be too low for Cease. WS would want both. They won’t get it, but that’s my understanding of how highly they value Cease.

As you said, they aren't going to get that, so at some point they'll have to decide if they're willing to accept one of the packages that is actually on the table. I'd offer Ortiz/Norby (or Stowers)/Povich and sit back and wait to see if anyone tops it. My understanding is that the WS want pitching more than anything, which could be a problem.

As for the original question, I still value HK's power as the best carrying tool between him and Cowser, but I like both and value them roughly equally. I don't think I'd trade six years of either for Cease (although I'd have to consider a one-for-one swap). My preference would be to see the team transition both into the lineup in place of Hays and O'Hearn.