Cowser vs Kjerstad revisited

[Just Regular]

Its almost hard to find a contrast, especially given the near identical starting point of draft pool dollars conferred by Mike Elias.

One would be Kjerstad played the SEC while Cowser's college was a smaller school.

To lean into a shtick, if the SEC doesn't have recruiting tabs on you around when you can get a learner's permit, you might not be in Tier 1.

Elias' overall assessments have been good enough my starting expectation for EBJ is about 20% less valuable than Kjerstad/Cowser as that's what the money suggests.

I do mentally subdivide high school and college for that - even though Gunnar/Mayo only got ~$2mm to start, from age 18-21 they played their way up the ladder to an extent I don't think many college guys have the capability to.      Once the Sigbot gets your 18-21 data, it can weigh and measure you even more precisely.

 

[oriole]

21 minutes ago, deward said:

As you said, they aren't going to get that, so at some point they'll have to decide if they're willing to accept one of the packages that is actually on the table. I'd offer Ortiz/Norby (or Stowers)/Povich and sit back and wait to see if anyone tops it. My understanding is that the WS want pitching more than anything, which could be a problem.

 

I think the package you’re suggesting is very far fetched. There are 28 teams out there that can, and would, beat that with ease. You will need at least one of our top 5. My point was that the WS would want more than one of our top 5 and likely someone in top 6-10 in addition.

 

Id offer something like Cowser, Kremer, and someone between our 10-20 and let them say no and then move on. 

[HakunaSakata]

I like Kjerstad quite a bit more. I know he's more limited defensively, but I think he has JD Martinez upside in terms of his hitting ceiling. I'm really hoping the team commits to getting him 400+ ABs this season and gives him time to find his groove. 

[HakunaSakata]

31 minutes ago, deward said:

As you said, they aren't going to get that, so at some point they'll have to decide if they're willing to accept one of the packages that is actually on the table. I'd offer Ortiz/Norby (or Stowers)/Povich and sit back and wait to see if anyone tops it. My understanding is that the WS want pitching more than anything, which could be a problem.

As for the original question, I still value HK's power as the best carrying tool between him and Cowser, but I like both and value them roughly equally. I don't think I'd trade six years of either for Cease (although I'd have to consider a one-for-one swap). My preference would be to see the team transition both into the lineup in place of Hays and O'Hearn.

There's really no scenario where trading young pitching makes any sense for this team given the lack of depth we have at that position. Giving up someone like Povich should be a deal breaker unless we're getting a young controllable arm in return. 

[waroriole]

I said I’d rather keep Cowser in the last discussion and I stand by it. Better defensively and his minor league numbers are every bit as good as Kjerstad. The short stint in Baltimore was poor but you can’t let such a small sample size cloud your judgment. 

[deward]

23 minutes ago, oriole said:

I think the package you’re suggesting is very far fetched. There are 28 teams out there that can, and would, beat that with ease. You will need at least one of our top 5. My point was that the WS would want more than one of our top 5 and likely someone in top 6-10 in addition.

 

Id offer something like Cowser, Kremer, and someone between our 10-20 and let them say no and then move on. 

Two starting infielders (one of whom is the #50 prospect in MLB per MLB.com) and a potential replacement in the rotation? If teams were willing to beat that with ease, it would have already happened. It's a very fair offer for two years of a guy who didn't pitch like he belonged at the top of a rotation last year.

[Sydnor]

My non-scout opinion based on seeing them both in Norfolk several times this year:

Cowser has elite plate discipline/swing decisions. I wish he had gotten more opportunity because I think he needs to find the balance between aggressiveness and waiting for the pitch he can drive. I know he looked rough defensively, and I criticized him for it, but I think he can handle left in Camden. 

Kjerstad doesn’t have the same plate discipline/swing decisions, but seems to swing a miss a bit less. I’m not convinced he would be as good a defender as Santander in right because Tony gets excellent jumps, and I didn’t see that out of Kjerstad. 

I think they are both going to be good players. Kjerstad coming back from his health issues is tremendous. If I had to pick one, I’d keep Cowser because of his swing decisions and defense, but I completely understand why others my prefer Kjerstad.

[emmett16]

It’s a coin flip for me.  Gun to my head I’ll take Kjerstad.  His elite level bat speed is pretty rare.  However I highly doubt this will be an issue.  I fully expect both to be on the opening day roster and get 400 ABs this year as an Oriole.  

[Tony-OH]

I ranked Kjerstad above Cowser but I'll be honest, I could have built a case either way. Cowser's defensive edge, including a much better arm, really is what makes him stand out. Unfortunately, the concerns about him hitting velocity in the minor leagues was highlighted during his major league time. 

Cowser has a solid floor as a 4th outfielder while Kjerstad has a floor of a Ryan O'Hearn type. Both have considerably higher ceilings and solid "most likely" as regular everyday outfielders. The Orioles could do a lot worse than Cowser in LF and Kjerstad in RF one day.

If I had to trade one, man it's close, but my concerns over Cowser hitting velocity and left handed breaking pitches probably means I send him off first.

 

[oriole]

3 hours ago, deward said:

Two starting infielders (one of whom is the #50 prospect in MLB per MLB.com) and a potential replacement in the rotation? If teams were willing to beat that with ease, it would have already happened. It's a very fair offer for two years of a guy who didn't pitch like he belonged at the top of a rotation last year.

Gonna have to agree to disagree on that one I suppose. I’m sure better packages have been proposed but the White Sox have said no. Cease is hardly worth going after IMO just based on how much  the White Sox seem to think he’s worth. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, oriole said:

Gonna have to agree to disagree on that one I suppose. I’m sure better packages have been proposed but the White Sox have said no. Cease is hardly worth going after IMO just based on how much  the White Sox seem to think he’s worth. 

You go after him until it’s absolutely clear there’s a better option.  The fact that the White Sox have been stubborn so far doesn’t mean they won’t change course when spring training draws close and nothing better has come along.  

Back in my litigator days, I had many cases where the parties were far apart in settlement talks for months but suddenly reached a deal when the trial was imminent.  
 

[rudyrooster]

I like both players.  I just can't see trading a #2 overall pick (Kjerstad) when he's just breaking into the majors.  His bat seems "tailor made" for that short right porch at Camden Yards.  I also think he could play a serviceable defense in right field.  Just my opinion.

[spiritof66]

24 minutes ago, rudyrooster said:

I like both players.  I just can't see trading a #2 overall pick (Kjerstad) when he's just breaking into the majors.  His bat seems "tailor made" for that short right porch at Camden Yards.  I also think he could play a serviceable defense in right field.  Just my opinion.

For me, that's the question: will Kjerstad be good enough defensively to be an everyday player in the OF? From what little I've seen of him, I have doubts. I hope he can get enough playing time to dispel those doubts by June.

[wildcard]

I would keep them both and the WS can keep Cease.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I would keep them both and the WS can keep Cease.

I would prefer to trade one (and some lesser pieces) if it will get us Cease or someone better.   However, it will be okay with me if that doesn’t happen IF we figure out a way to get each of them 400+ at bats in the majors next year and see what they can do.  But I’ll be annoyed if we keep them both and they spend 80% of the year in the minors or sitting on the bench.   

Edited December 29, 2023 by Frobby