Cowser vs Kjerstad revisited

[Since1984]

Heston is just getting started! I would not trade him unless it was a SP with 5* years of control who projects better than a #3 floor. This is how good HK is and 2024+ will prove it! 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Since1984 said:

Heston is just getting started! I would not trade him unless it was a SP with 5* years of control who projects better than a #3 floor. This is how good HK is and 2024+ will prove it! 

Who has five years of control and a floor of a #2 pitcher?

Is that even a thing?

 

[Since1984]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who has five years of control and a floor of a #2 pitcher?

Is that even a thing?

 

Good point! Grayson and Kyle are the examples off the top

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, Since1984 said:

Good point! Grayson and Kyle are the examples off the top

If we were in a position to be trading either of those guys, Kjerstad would be just the start of what we'd be asking for. 

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Since1984 said:

Good point! Grayson and Kyle are the examples off the top

I'm not certain that Grayson and Bradish have the floor of a #2.

I wouldn't say I think either are a lock to be a #1 or #2 pitcher going forward.

[Since1984]

13 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

If we were in a position to be trading either of those guys, Kjerstad would be just the start of what we'd be asking for. 

I was errant in stating a #2 floor when it should have been a Kyle or Grayson SP prospect. That said, it will take a SP prospect to move Cease.

Kjerstad has the potential to be the best power/impact hitter on the ML team (and that is saying a lot). His first year playing justifies this perspective. Heston is just getting started 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Since1984

[Since1984]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not certain that Grayson and Bradish have the floor of a #2.

I wouldn't say I think either are a lock to be a #1 or #2 pitcher going forward.

I agree, I think both have a mid rotation floor, currently. Their prospect status, historically, is what the WS are looking for, imo

[Jagwar]

I just wish they both weren't ready for promotion at the same time. 

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I would prefer to trade one (and some lesser pieces) if it will get us Cease or someone better.   However, it will be okay with me if that doesn’t happen IF we figure out a way to get each of them 400+ at bats in the majors next year and see what they can do.  But I’ll be annoyed if we keep them both and they spend 80% of the year in the minors or sitting on the bench.   

Elias plans for the future.  Its not all about 2024.  Its about the next 6 years.   Santander and Hays will probably be gone after 2024.  Kjerstad and Cowser will be needed.

Look at the O's 2nd half starters.

Bradish  2.34 ERA

GRod    2.58 ERA

Means   2.66 ERA

Kremer  3.25 ERA

And Wells  1st half   3.18 ERA

I am not saying they can duplicate those numbers for a full season but Bradish and GRod should be able to pitch 32 starts and be #1s.   Kremer can pitch 32 starts.

 Means has pitched 26 starts and Elias/Hyde/Holt have shown they will let starters pitch as many inning as they are effective.  They did that will GRod last year.   He went from 75 innings in 2022 to 163 innings in 2023.

Wells was the O's most effective starter in the first half last year.   He can pitch 15-20 starts.

The O's do need another starter but it does not have to be Cease.   I would not give up 6 years of any top prospect for Cease.  Certainly not Cowser or Kjerstad who will be needed in 2025.

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Elias plans for the future.  Its not all about 2024.  Its about the next 6 years.   Santander and Hays will probably be gone after 2024.  Kjerstad and Cowser will be needed.

Look at the O's 2nd half starters.

Bradish  2.34 ERA

GRod    2.58 ERA

Means   2.66 ERA

Kremer  3.25 ERA

And Wells  1st half   3.18 ERA

I am not saying they can duplicate those numbers for a full season but Bradish and GRod should be able to pitch 32 starts and be #1s.   Kremer can pitch 32 starts.

 Means has pitched 26 starts and Elias/Hyde/Holt have shown they will let starters pitch as many inning as they are effective.  They did that will GRod last year.   He went from 75 innings in 2022 to 163 innings in 2023.

Wells was the O's most effective starter in the first half last year.   He can pitch 15-20 starts.

The O's do need another starter but it does not have to be Cease.   I would not give up 6 years of any top prospect for Cease.  Certainly not Cowser or Kjerstad who will be needed in 2025.

 

It’s not just about 2024 but if Elias is constantly looking at only the long term, it’s going to be very hard to win in the short term.

[Tony-OH]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not just about 2024 but if Elias is constantly looking at only the long term, it’s going to be very hard to win in the short term.

At some point, Elias is going to need to need to focus on what's best for the team in 2024. He certainly does not want to just give top prospects away, but prospects are commodities that should ultimately be used to win baseball games at the major league level for the Orioles. Whether that be while wearing an Orioles uniform or traded for a player that helps them. 

I think we all agree the Orioles should be a World Series contenders going into this season. Adding a Cease or Valdez certainly helps those chances by added needed depth at the top of the starting rotation. 

I feel like they are going to have to give up a Cowser or Kjerstad in those deals and if Povich has to be included, I'd be willing to do that. 

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

At some point, Elias is going to need to need to focus on what's best for the team in 2024. He certainly does not want to just give top prospects away, but prospects are commodities that should ultimately be used to win baseball games at the major league level for the Orioles. Whether that be while wearing an Orioles uniform or traded for a player that helps them. 

I think we all agree the Orioles should be a World Series contenders going into this season. Adding a Cease or Valdez certainly helps those chances by added needed depth at the top of the starting rotation. 

I feel like they are going to have to give up a Cowser or Kjerstad in those deals and if Povich has to be included, I'd be willing to do that. 

I predict that the O's don't  get Cease or Valdez because they will not out bid the competition to get either.

[interloper]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I predict that the O's don't  get Cease or Valdez because they will not out bid the competition to get either.

Correct.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I still have a slight preference for Cowser. Kjerstad’s hit/power combo is very impressive but I worry his floor could be Mountcastle-y, with little defensive value and not enough walks to be a well above average hitter. His swing decisions and contact rates should still be better, but he may only be a 1-2 WARish player if the offensive profile doesn’t come together like we hope it will.

Cowser has a good chance of being a 1-2 WARish platoon 4th OF just on defense and walks alone. And it’s no fault of Kjerstad’s, but Cowser also has age more on his side. I’d still take Kjerstad’s bat but Cowser has the edge with the full package IMO.

Best case scenario is a trade of Westburg or Ortiz + smaller pieces for a SP and keep both Kjerstad and Cowser. I’d take a lesser SP than Cease if Cease requires Kjerstad/Cowser in addition to Westburg/Ortiz. 

There may not be space on the OD roster for both Cowser and Kjerstad but even without a trade I think both will be 2024 contributors. There’s enough space for one of them to get 4-5 starts a week even with everyone healthy, and there are always injuries, and decent risk that O’Hearn regresses. Even if O’Hearn doesn’t regress much, Kjerstad/Cowser could supplant him if they adapt to MLB pitching smoothly enough. (And I think Hays should be the backup CF / part time CF vs LHP, which opens more playing time.)

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Elias plans for the future.  Its not all about 2024.  Its about the next 6 years.   Santander and Hays will probably be gone after 2024.  Kjerstad and Cowser will be needed.

Look at the O's 2nd half starters.

Bradish  2.34 ERA

GRod    2.58 ERA

Means   2.66 ERA

Kremer  3.25 ERA

And Wells  1st half   3.18 ERA

I am not saying they can duplicate those numbers for a full season but Bradish and GRod should be able to pitch 32 starts and be #1s.   Kremer can pitch 32 starts.

 Means has pitched 26 starts and Elias/Hyde/Holt have shown they will let starters pitch as many inning as they are effective.  They did that will GRod last year.   He went from 75 innings in 2022 to 163 innings in 2023.

Wells was the O's most effective starter in the first half last year.   He can pitch 15-20 starts.

The O's do need another starter but it does not have to be Cease.   I would not give up 6 years of any top prospect for Cease.  Certainly not Cowser or Kjerstad who will be needed in 2025.

 

Well, I said it didn’t have to be Cease.  I’d like it to be someone just as good as Cease.  I’d like to push Wells and Hall to the bullpen.  And I’d like to have some depth for when someone gets hurt.  You’ve got Bradish, GRod, Kremer and Means penciled in for 122 starts.   That’s great if everything goes perfectly, but I’ll take the under, and you have to be ready in case it’s a LOT under.