Cowser vs Kjerstad revisited

[spiritof66]

7 hours ago, interloper said:

What's usually the biggest concern with power bats? Strikeout rate. Yet a lot of people like Cowser more, who has less power and more strikeouts than Kjerstad. 

We can find LF defense somewhere. Give me the guy who can hit the Warehouse without the strikeout concerns.

 

I agree that Kjerstad looks like he's ready to hit major-league pitching. I'm not as sure he's ready (or ever will be) to be good at catching major-league hitting.  

[Since1984]

19 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I just wish they both weren't ready for promotion at the same time. 

Yes times three this coming year. Ortiz, Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers would be starters, or given a chance on a good number of mlb rosters in 2024

[Brooks The Great]

On 12/28/2023 at 11:43 AM, Spy Fox said:

It's a ceiling vs floor thing for me. I think Cowser's ceiling is higher but Kjerstad is the more likely to hit his floor as a quality MLB hitter. 

Given our depth of position player prospects, I'm more drawn to the higher upside player. So I personally would rather keep Cowser and trade Kjerstad.

I actually think it's the opposite. I think Cowser will be the safer bet to hit his floor because he's such a good hitter, and a potentially solid defender in either corner outfield spot. Meanwhile, Kjerstad is the higher upside player. Cowser didn't hit well in the majors obviously, but he also wasn't given a chance to play every day. Kjerstad's risky profile as a defender lowers his floor, but Kjerstad's power is what makes him the higher ceiling player for me.

You used the Markakis comp for Cowser, which I think is accurate and a common comp used for Cowser. Markakis was also a high floor kind of player. He never hit for big power, but was a very good hitter with a great arm, and ultimately a valuable player his whole time with the Orioles. 

[Brooks The Great]

On 12/29/2023 at 3:03 PM, Three Run Homer said:

Aside from needing trade bait to land a top starting pitcher, there is nothing forcing us to trade either one.  There is room for both Cowser and Kjerstad in the team's lineup going forward.  We should not hesitate to trade Mountcastle, Santander, and/or Hays for the right return, because Cowser, Kjerstad and Mayo are ready to take their at bats and produce.  

Totally agree, and that right there is the answer to the Cowser vs. Kjerstad debate for me. Keep both.

The only thing that concerns me is that Elias has demonstrated both a reluctance to trade his top prospects, AND also has shown to overvalue mediocre veterans and block prospects with them (Odor, Frazier, Mateo). I'm already worried about guys like O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo and even Mountcastle and Hays taking AB's away from Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz and possibly Norby and Mayo. Not only could those prospects provide better immediate value than those veterans in certain scenarios, but those prospects losing playing time to vets could very possibly be detrimental to their development.

[Warehouse]

Hard disagree on the Cowser to Markakis comp.  Markakis struck out 13% of the time over his major league career.  Cowser has struck out 26% of the time over his minor league career.  If Cowser were to match Nick’s career .136 ISO, he’ll struggle to hit for more than a .730 OPS given the swing-and-miss in his game.

That being said, Cowser has shown some promising signs in the power department so I think he will have more pop than Nick.  This season in AAA, his power metrics were as good or better than Kjerstad (especially if you normalize for Heston’s 5 triples and inside-the-park HR).

[Brooks The Great]

3 hours ago, Warehouse said:

Hard disagree on the Cowser to Markakis comp.  Markakis struck out 13% of the time over his major league career.  Cowser has struck out 26% of the time over his minor league career.  If Cowser were to match Nick’s career .136 ISO, he’ll struggle to hit for more than a .730 OPS given the swing-and-miss in his game.

That being said, Cowser has shown some promising signs in the power department so I think he will have more pop than Nick.  This season in AAA, his power metrics were as good or better than Kjerstad (especially if you normalize for Heston’s 5 triples and inside-the-park HR).

If you only want to look at K%, maybe the comp isn't accurate. But Cowser was one of the best pure OBP hitters his whole time in the minors. He has an exquisite ability to draw walks. So from a purely OBP standpoint, that makes the comp more accurate.

I think Cowser will wind up with a better major league career than Markakis - I'm a believer in Colton and I think his small sample MLB stint where he never played regularly makes most Orioles fans and posters on this board severely underrate him.