Established arms vs non established arms

[Sports Guy]

Obviously there has been a lot of talk on this site about adding a starter.

A common answer I have seen a lot lately is the idea that people would prefer one of the Marlins or Mariners young arms vs a Cease trade.

We don’t need to necessarily rehash all the reasons why but instead I want to focus on just the production aspect of things.

 I have  certainly made it no secret that I want one of these arms as well but that would instead of Kremer. My thought process being that the Os need more young, cost controlled arms with big upside and we have the resources to do it.

However, that also goes with the idea that we add a starter that is no worse than a true #3 guy. 
 

My worry is that if we add one of the young arms that they won’t be a difference making arm. Now, we can’t say for sure that Luzardo or Burnes or Cease or Bieber would be either but I think it’s obvious that you feel better about guys with an established track record vs a young high upside arm but one that has no track record or an iffy track record.
 

I feel in previous years, the younger arm over the established arm is/was a no brainer. But now we have to look at what is best for the team that is trying to win and especially what’s best for the team in the playoffs and while it’s possible the young unestablished arm could be that guy come October, it’s obviously very risky to expect and assume that.

 

[RZNJ]

Expecting ANY one starter to be your savior in October/November is foolish.   Any upgrade in starters helps us win more in the regular season and improves our odds in the playoffs.  I think the chances are that it’s either Cease or Luzardo.  I think Elias first choice is Cease because of the upside and durability but he’ll pivot if the WS want more than he’s willing to give.  He might be willing to give more for the extra year of Luzardo OR he might go into the season with Wells.   He’s not between a rock and a hard place.

[interloper]

I think if we end up with a young arm, it will be because we couldn't make a trade work for an established arm. I think Elias (and Hyde) prefer a more veteran guy, but could pivot to an unproven arm. 

End of the day at the very least you just have to increase the talent base of your starting rotation.

[clapdiddy]

Good post.   My feeling about this is that both moves can be made.  

Can a guy like Bieber be traded for someone like Santander?   Would Elias do that?    Would Cleveland?    If not, would there be some other combination of player(s) on the 40-man roster to acquire Bieber?     If you do that, you can still use some of your young depth to acquire one of the Marlins/Mariners young guys.  

I am not sold on Cease as "the guy" to put them over the top.   If Elias feels he is "the guy", then I feel a little better about acquiring him.   For me, I think Bieber is a more realistic, albeit possibly a less effective, alternative.   But, if acquiring him allows them to acquire another young arm to put into the rotation, that combination could be worth more than a Cease acquisition alone.  

 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Expecting ANY one starter to be your savior in October/November is foolish.   Any upgrade in starters helps us win more in the regular season and improves our odds in the playoffs.  I think the chances are that it’s either Cease or Luzardo.  I think Elias first choice is Cease because of the upside and durability but he’ll pivot if the WS want more than he’s willing to give.  He might be willing to give more for the extra year of Luzardo OR he might go into the season with Wells.   He’s not between a rock and a hard place.

Another thing to remember is that Bradish, Rodriguez and Kremer all have more playoff experience than Cease, and Luzardo has never made it out of the 5th inning in his two post season starts. 

That's not to say that neither wouldn't be upgrades in the rotation this year, just that it doesn't necessarily mean the Orioles have acquired proven veteran starters with winning playoff experience. 

The Orioles should always be trying to improve their pitching depth so if they can get a young upside starter, for depth prospects than they absolutely should do it, but the big three can't be in any discussion and Kjerstad and Cowser only go in the right deal.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Good post.   My feeling about this is that both moves can be made.  

Can a guy like Bieber be traded for someone like Santander?   Would Elias do that?    Would Cleveland?    If not, would there be some other combination of player(s) on the 40-man roster to acquire Bieber?     If you do that, you can still use some of your young depth to acquire one of the Marlins/Mariners young guys.  

I am not sold on Cease as "the guy" to put them over the top.   If Elias feels he is "the guy", then I feel a little better about acquiring him.   For me, I think Bieber is a more realistic, albeit possibly a less effective, alternative.   But, if acquiring him allows them to acquire another young arm to put into the rotation, that combination could be worth more than a Cease acquisition alone.  

 

Bieber intrigues me too but the risk is higher..of course, the package to get him is far less.

Getting Bieber would increase my desire to get a second arm but I also don’t think the Os move on from Kremer.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Another thing to remember is that Bradish, Rodriguez and Kremer all have more playoff experience than Cease and Luzardo has never made it out of the 5th inning in his two post season starts. 

That's not to say that neither wouldn't be upgrades in the rotation this year, just that it doesn't necessarily mean the Orioles have acquired proven veteran starters with winning playoff experience. 

The Orioles should always be trying to improve their pitching depth so if they can get a young upside starter, for depth prospects than they absolutely should do it, but the big three can't be in any discussion and Kjerstad and Cowser only go in the right deal.

It’s not the playoff experience that matters to me, it’s the thought that you acquire these guys thinking they can be legit guys you feel comfortable going to in the playoffs.

As of today, unless you are a complete homer, no one on this site can say they feel very comfortable about the pitching staff for the playoffs…even the pen has to give people pause right now.

They may be adequate for the regular season but that’s a different discussion.

[clapdiddy]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Bieber intrigues me too but the risk is higher..of course, the package to get him is far less.

Getting Bieber would increase my desire to get a second arm but I also don’t think the Os move on from Kremer.

If you get a younger guy, maybe you can have them be a long man in the bullpen.   I'm still not sold on Means being counted on for 25 - 30 starts this season.  It would be nice to have that available depth.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, clapdiddy said:

If you get a younger guy, maybe you can have them be a long man in the bullpen.   I'm still not sold on Means being counted on for 25 - 30 starts this season.  It would be nice to have that available depth.   

Yea, I guess you can go that route.  If you just want the arm and let things play itself out, that could be a good way of doing things.

[HakunaSakata]

The main benefit I see to adding a young arm as opposed to a veteran is the potential to have a difference maker for the foreseeable future as opposed to just the next two seasons. It also seems to be more in line with the team's general strategy of young player development. Is there more risk involved? Probably, but if Elias and his team trust their scouting / research I'm not sure it's any riskier than hoping someone like Cease recaptures the form of  what was clearly his outlier season. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

The main benefit I see to adding a young arm as opposed to a veteran is the potential to have a difference maker for the foreseeable future as opposed to just the next two seasons. It also seems to be more in line with the team's general strategy of young player development. Is there more risk involved? Probably, but if Elias and his team trust their scouting / research I'm not sure it's any riskier than hoping someone like Cease recaptures the form of  what was clearly his outlier season. 

Well if the Os trust those same things with Cease and he has already been at the top, it stands to reason that is far less riskier.

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not the playoff experience that matters to me, it’s the thought that you acquire these guys thinking they can be legit guys you feel comfortable going to in the playoffs.

As of today, unless you are a complete homer, no one on this site can say they feel very comfortable about the pitching staff for the playoffs…even the pen has to give people pause right now.

They may be adequate for the regular season but that’s a different discussion.

From what I've read, I think most people think the Orioles need to upgrade the rotation or at least add a good solid #3 or higher starter, and not a Gibson type. 

I think Elias knows that too, but he's not just giving away good, cheap talent because it's backed up a bit. I don't know what's been offered, but I do know I don't want any of the big three being traded. 

One other thing is we are at a point with Bradish and Kremer that they are established big league starters. We know the upside of Grayson and we have a half season of him fulfilling on his immense promise. We also have an established starter in Means though obviously coming off TJ surgery and then getting shut right back down does not make anyone feel good about what he can provide this year.

So yes, I agree with you that I don't want Wells/Irvin/McDermott/Povich battling for the 5th starter's spot in a year where we should be legitimate contenders. But i had major question marks about the rotation throughout most of last season and they won 101 games. 

I don't want to take too much out of the playoff sweep because a lot of that had to do with hitting a white hot Texas team that was obviously destined to be World Champs last year. But, Bradish pitched well and next year, Grayson will have a whole season under his belt and will hopefully be able to contain his excitement/nerves better next year. I would right now like to be able to pencil a veteran with a track record into that 3rd starter's spot, but I don't want to overpay now when that "sure thing" starter might be more readily available at the trading deadline.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

From what I've read, I think most people think the Orioles need to upgrade the rotation or at least add a good solid #3 or higher starter, and not a Gibson type. 

I think Elias knows that too, but he's not just giving away good, cheap talent because it's backed up a bit. I don't know what's been offered, but I do know I don't want any of the big three being traded. 

One other thing is we are at a point with Bradish and Kremer that they are established big league starters. We know the upside of Grayson and we have a half season of him fulfilling on his immense promise. We also have an established starter in Means though obviously coming off TJ surgery and then getting shut right back down does not make anyone feel good about what he can provide this year.

So yes, I agree with you that I don't want Wells/Irvin/McDermott/Povich battling for the 5th starter's spot in a year where we should be legitimate contenders. But i had major question marks about the rotation throughout most of last season and they won 101 games. 

I don't want to take too much out of the playoff sweep because a lot of that had to do with hitting a white hot Texas team that was obviously destined to be World Champs last year. But, Bradish pitched well and next year, Grayson will have a whole season under his belt and will hopefully be able to contain his excitement/nerves better next year. I would right now like to be able to pencil a veteran with a track record into that 3rd starter's spot, but I don't want to overpay now when that "sure thing" starter might be more readily available at the trading deadline.

You will have to overpay a lot more in July.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You will have to overpay a lot more in July.

Perhaps, but perhaps a couple of low level guys blossom and become better trading chips and then they still have upper level guys to go to battle with in the near future.

[now]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not the playoff experience that matters to me, it’s the thought that you acquire these guys thinking they can be legit guys you feel comfortable going to in the playoffs.

As of today, unless you are a complete homer, no one on this site can say they feel very comfortable about the pitching staff for the playoffs…even the pen has to give people pause right now.

They may be adequate for the regular season but that’s a different discussion.

Speaking from the "homer" camp, I'm more comfortable going into playoffs with the current rotation pieces than with the current bullpen (even with Tate and Kimbrel added). Aside from the quality of the personnel, the bullpen seems inherently more unpredictable, and it gets leaned on more heavily in the playoffs.