How Many #1/#2 Starters Exist in MLB

[GoldGlove21]

With all of the talk about the Orioles only giving up high-level prospects for a TOR starter, how many #1/#2 starters do you think exist in MLB? I am also curious as to who you think those players are and what those players make verses the amount of team control left on those arms.

[Malike]

Assuming a 1 is an Ace, probably a handful as I believe it's the most misused way to describe a team's number 1 starter in the sport. Words like Ace and Superstar get thrown around way too easily and it's silly.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

Assuming a 1 is an Ace, probably a handful as I believe it's the most misused way to describe a team's number 1 starter in the sport. Words like Ace and Superstar get thrown around way too easily and it's silly.

Yep.  There are very few true aces out there.

I think Snell is an example of a #1 starter but not an ace.

[Frobby]

Honestly, I’ve always hated the terminology. Because nobody agrees on what it means, and many people’s definitions are way stricter than the literal definition of the term.  

[Malike]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep.  There are very few true aces out there.

I think Snell is an example of a #1 starter but not an ace.

It's along the same lines as we need a .900 OPS MOO bat. There were ten .900+ OPS guys in 2023 in all of MLB, but people act like they grow on trees.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I’ve always hated the terminology. Because nobody agrees on what it means, and many people’s definitions are way stricter than the literal definition of the term.  

I can remember years ago Drungo posting what the average 1 starters ERA is, #2 ERA, etc…I’m not sure if that info is still out there but I would be interested in that.

I can remember at the time the average 5th starter had an ERA around 5.3…yet if you had a starter in your rotation with that ERA, you would want them gone.

 

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I’ve always hated the terminology. Because nobody agrees on what it means, and many people’s definitions are way stricter than the literal definition of the term.  

A playing card with one large symbol on the face?

Lots of guys have "Ace" stuff, but they aren't Aces. Chris Archer for example was in a similar position as Cease is right now. He was the hottest trade chip, the Rays' "Ace", despite never putting up an ERA+ greater than 121 and having a career ERA+ of 102. 

[btdart20]

I went the simple 30 x 2 = 60.  

A "playoff team" tends to want 2 in the top 30.

Agreed that an ace is a sub-set of #1 SP.  The number fluctuates every year with performance.  Generally 10-15 range for me.  Bradish was a borderline ace in 2023 IMO.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

I went the simple 30 x 2 = 60.  

A "playoff team" tends to want 2 in the top 30.

Agreed that an ace is a sub-set of #1 SP.  The number fluctuates every year with performance.  Generally 10-15 range for me.  Bradish was a borderline ace in 2023 IMO.

There are thousands of examples of guys who have had a season where they pitched like an Ace. There are not many bonafide Aces in MLB, that's the main difference. By definition, every team has a number 1 pitcher, it's their best starter, even if they aren't that great.

[Aristotelian]

I've got 49 that I would be comfortable with as a credible #2 starter or better on a playoff contending team. Who am I missing?

Aces (8): Wheeler, Snell, Cole, Strider, McLanahan, Fried, Burnes, DeGrom

#1 (17): Gausman, Gray, Gallen, Steele, Webb, Eflin, Lopez, Kirby, Valdez, Bradish, Senga, Verlander, Alcantara, Shohei, Yamamoto, Kershaw, Castillo

#2 (24): Montgomery, Nola, Cease, Luzardo, Kelly, Gilbert, Mikolas, Peralta, Berrios, Morton, Steele, Bassit, Keller, Eduardo, Bibee, Garrett, Miller, Gonsolin, Buehler, Stroman, Eovaldi, Darvish, Yu, Scherzer

[clapdiddy]

Realistically, the only guy right now I'd consider a true "ace" is Gerrit Cole.  

Edited January 5 by clapdiddy

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I've got 49 that I would be comfortable with as a credible #2 starter or better on a playoff contending team. Who am I missing?

Aces (8): Wheeler, Snell, Cole, Strider, McLanahan, Fried, Burnes, DeGrom

#1 (17): Gausman, Gray, Gallen, Steele, Webb, Eflin, Lopez, Kirby, Valdez, Bradish, Senga, Verlander, Alcantara, Shohei, Yamamoto, Kershaw, Castillo

#2 (24): Montgomery, Nola, Cease, Luzardo, Kelly, Gilbert, Mikolas, Peralta, Berrios, Morton, Steele, Bassit, Keller, Eduardo, Bibee, Garrett, Miller, Gonsolin, Buehler, Stroman, Eovaldi, Darvish, Yu, Scherzer

Grayson Rodriguez says ouch

As a fan of baseball, the best pitcher in the world is such a slippery concept there's never really a set answer.   But there is a hope in a few years he's the answer to that question in a way I'd also say there's not really a chance Kyle Bradish is the answer to that question.

That said, I do hope when we look up WAR leaders for 2023-2028 Bradish is in the Top 10 as he signs a $200mm+ contract not with us!

We talk about the board sleeping on Billy Cook or Ramon Urias....I know Corey Seager's lineup blasted him but I think Grayson's perceived value now is less than his actual value.     Pitches are just data and in the 2nd Half Bradish, Grayson and Cease were all in the Top 10 of Stuff+, even though they pooped the bed as October greenhorns or were winding down the part of their careers joined at the hip to the Reinsdorf/LaRussa brand.

Of course it is 10X more likely Grayson's arm detonates some time the next few years than this happens, but that's also true of Sandy Alcantara, Shane McClanahan, Eury Perez, Roki Sasaki, etc.     

 

[Jim'sKid26]

32 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Realistically, the only guy right now I'd consider a true "ace" is Gerrit Cole.  

Why? I'm curious why you say only Cole?

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Grayson Rodriguez says ouch

As a fan of baseball, the best pitcher in the world is such a slippery concept there's never really a set answer.   But there is a hope in a few years he's the answer to that question in a way I'd also say there's not really a chance Kyle Bradish is the answer to that question.

That said, I do hope when we look up WAR leaders for 2023-2028 Bradish is in the Top 10 as he signs a $200mm+ contract not with us!

We talk about the board sleeping on Billy Cook or Ramon Urias....I know Corey Seager's lineup blasted him but I think Grayson's perceived value now is less than his actual value.     Pitches are just data and in the 2nd Half Bradish, Grayson and Cease were all in the Top 10 of Stuff+, even though they pooped the bed as October greenhorns or were winding down the part of their careers joined at the hip to the Reinsdorf/LaRussa brand.

Of course it is 10X more likely Grayson's arm detonates some time the next few years than this happens, but that's also true of Sandy Alcantara, Shane McClanahan, Eury Perez, Roki Sasaki, etc.     

 

I thought of Grayson but I have to consider him more of a #3 until he has some sustained success. 

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Why? I'm curious why you say only Cole?

In my estimation, an "ace" is a guy you know is going to win the game that day.    I just don't think there are other guys like him out there.   I think there are some very good pitchers besides him, but I don't consider any of them an "ace".   Back in the day, I would have considered Verlander, Randy Johnson, Clemens, Maddux, Sale and others "aces".   I may be missing someone from today, but that's all I have right now is Cole.    I would likely have Ohtani on that list as well if he were not hurt.   Strider might be one if he replicates what he did last year.