Arbitration demands and offers to be exchanged next Friday (1/12)

[Frobby]

We’ll get a minor break in the offseason monotony on Friday when we find out which Arb-eligible players have settled with the Orioles, and the salary demands and offers of the others.  Just to have them handy for next Friday, here are the MLBTR and Cots estimates for our Arb-eligibles:

Santander $12.7 mm/$11.5 mm

Coulombe $2.2 mm/$2.0 mm

Means $5.93 mm/$4.0 mm

O’Hearn $3.0 mm/$2.85 mm

Mullins $6.4 mm/$6.8 mm

Hays $6.1 mm/$5.8 mm

Tate $1.5 mm/$1.6 mm

Mountcastle $4.2 mm/$3.9 mm

Perez $1.3 mm/$1.3 mm

Irvin $1.8 mm/$1.5 mm

Webb $1.2 mm/$1.2 mm

Urias $2.0 mm/$1.85 mm

Wells $2.3 mm/$2.0 mm

Four other Arb-eligible players settled already: Mateo ($2.7 mm), Akin ($825 k), McKenna ($800 k) and Hilliard ($800 k).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

I hope JA’s tit is bruised after the arb judge is done with him. 
 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hope JA’s tit is bruised after the arb judge is done with him. 
 

He might need another press conference to complain about how ticket prices are going to have to increase.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

He might need another press conference to complain about how ticket prices are going to have to increase.

They already raised the price of my tickets for 2024.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They already raised the price of my tickets for 2024.  

I'm shocked.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm shocked.

It’s a modest increase, about $13.36/game per 4 tickets.  Not enough to extend Gunnar.   

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

They already raised the price of my tickets for 2024.  

No price raise for me!   My $1200 flex plan still cost $1200.   

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

No price raise for me!   My $1200 flex plan still cost $1200.   

I guess it may buy you a little less.  

I’ve been a member of a ticket group ever since OPACY opened.  It almost broke up last year.  If it had, I would have gone with the flex plan. I like that concept.  
 

[Frobby]

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/orioles-still-have-arbitration-work-to-do

[Jim'sKid26]

So once the figures have been exchanged and the actual arbitration process begins, does that provide enough clarity to all the MLB clubs of their likely player salary cost to start the trade market back up or do we have to wait for the actual arbiter's decisions?

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So once the figures have been exchanged and the actual arbitration process begins, does that provide enough clarity to all the MLB clubs of their likely player salary cost to start the trade market back up or do we have to wait for the actual arbiter's decisions?

Guys who are Arb-eligible get traded all the time.

[Billy F-Face3]

On 1/6/2024 at 4:55 PM, Frobby said:

Santander $12.7 mm/$11.5 mm

 

 

 

On 7/18/2023 at 2:12 PM, Billy F-Face3 said:

My AI simulator estimates that Santander will get around $11 Million next season from arbitration. (Statistical input at this point of the season was if Santander had a .850 OPS and a 2 WAR).

I would say $12 Million seems more like a safe reasonable number.

I was just about right on the money in that estimate back in July. I wouldn't be surprised if he got closer to 13 either.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

 

I was just about right on the money in that estimate back in July. I wouldn't be surprised if he got closer to 13 either.

I usually study the cases closely and give my opinion if they don’t settle by the date to exchange positions.  I haven’t done that yet.  But in my experience, MLBTR is usually on the high side.  I think they’re way off base on Means.  Not sure about Santander.  

How does your AI simulator work?  I tried to get ChatGPT to answer some baseball projection questions when it first came out, without success.  
 

[Billy F-Face3]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

I usually study the cases closely and give my opinion if they don’t settle by the date to exchange positions.  I haven’t done that yet.  But in my experience, MLBTR is usually on the high side.  I think they’re way off base on Means.  Not sure about Santander.  

How does your AI simulator work?  I tried to get ChatGPT to answer some baseball projection questions when it first came out, without success.  
 

It takes the player's current season salary before their off-season Arbitration, then you plug in the statistics the player has achieved up to the current date, compares all the other player stats and salary's from around MLB, and offers an educated estimate from all the data it has. You can also plug in scout ratings for their too sets for even more refinement and estimations as another data point.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

It takes the player's current season salary before their off-season Arbitration, then you plug in the statistics the player has achieved up to the current date, compares all the other player stats and salary's from around MLB, and offers an educated estimate from all the data it has. You can also plug in scout ratings for their too sets for even more refinement and estimations as another data point.

Did you create it?