Arbitration demands and offers to be exchanged next Friday (1/12)

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Most of these will probably settle before the hearing.  The gaps are mostly trivial.   

Doesn't Elias normally follow the file-and-trial approach?  Or has he relaxed that?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Doesn't Elias normally follow the file-and-trial approach?  Or has he relaxed that?

Elias says this every year, then doesn’t do it.  

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Elias says this every year, then doesn’t do it.  

It's more like Roch says this every year. I think he just likes typing "file and trial". 

[Frobby]

I’ve been studying the Hays case, in which he’s asking $6.3 mm and the team has offered $5.85 mm.   Both positions are pretty reasonable and I hope they settle it somewhere in the middle.  But if it’s forced to a hearing, I think the team probably wins.  

Ironically, one of the best comps for Hays is Mullins.  They’re both outfielders with 4+ years of service.  Last year, Mullins made $4.1 mm, Hays $3.2 mm.   Mullins will make $6.325 mm this year, a raise of $2.25 mm after an injury-plagued season in which he was valued at 2.8 rWAR, 1.8 fWAR.  The team has offered Hays a $2.65 mm raise after a healthy year in which he was worth 2.5 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR.   Hays is seeking a $3.1 mm raise that would put his total salary at $6.3 mm, just $25,000 under Mullins.  To me that seems very ambitious considering that career wise, Mullins has been worth 12.2 rWAR, 11.7 fWAR to Hays’ 9.0 rWAR, 7.0 fWAR.

Another good comp is the 2022 version of Alex Verdugo, who had 4+ years of service time, had been worth 9.5 rWAR, 7.2 fWAR in his career, but was coming off a 1.2 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR season.  He got a $2.75 mm raise from $3.55 mm to $6.3 mm.  Hays can argue that his career to date is similar to Verdugo’s a year ago, and he’s coming off a better season than Verdugo’s 2022, so he deserves to make at least what Verdugo made. 

Bottom line for me, you rarely see a player’s salary double in Arb 2 unless they’ve really had a huge year.  Hays had a nice year, arguably his best, but I don’t think it warrants doubling his pay.  I’d settle it at $6 mm even and Hays can feel good about getting a number that starts with a 6.   But I’m betting on the O’s if it goes to a hearing.  

 

Edited January 13 by Frobby

[Just Regular]

I know the old school stat RBI's is an outsized driver, but I'm not clear whether All-Star berths per se matter much.     Hays and Mullins do have Verdugo 1-0 there if they are significant.

[Safelykept]

On 1/12/2024 at 8:28 AM, Can_of_corn said:

The O'Hearn number blows my mind a bit.

Career -1.5 rWAR

How much is a couple of hot months worth?

The one that blows my mind is Means at 3.3 Million . Its Too low almost like both sides there is something in the Medicals, Just off that we definitely need another starter

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

The one that blows my mind is Means at 3.3 Million . Its Too low almost like both sides there is something in the Medicals, Just off that we definitely need another starter

This is a wrong impression.  It’s very typical of players who had a TJ and missed most of two seasons.   Alex Cobb is the perfect comp.  He agreed to a $4 mm salary in Arb 1, got injured that spring, missed all that season.  He got paid another $4 mm in Arb 2, coming back to make 5 starts at the end of the year, then got a $200 k raise to $4.2 mm in Arb 3.   Means made 4 starts in his comeback year and is getting a $350 k raise, nearly double what Cobb got.  

Edited January 15 by Frobby

[Going Underground]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is a wrong impression.  It’s very typical of players who had a TJ and missed most of two seasons.   Alex Cobb is the perfect comp.  He agreed to a $4 mm salary in Arb 1, got injured that spring, missed all that season.  He got paid another $4 mm in Arb 2, coming back to make 5 starts at the end of the year, then got a $200 k raise to $4.2 mm in Arb 3.   Means made 4 starts in his comeback year and is getting a $350 k raise, nearly double what Cobb got.  

Plus the Orioles gave him a two year contract for 2022 and 2023 for basically appearing in six games for $5.925 million 

[Safelykept]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is a wrong impression.  It’s very typical of players who had a TJ and missed most of two seasons.   Alex Cobb is the perfect comp.  He agreed to a $4 mm salary in Arb 1, got injured that spring, missed all that season.  He got paid another $4 mm in Arb 2, coming back to make 5 starts at the end of the year, then got a $200 k raise to $4.2 mm in Arb 3.   Means made 4 starts in his comeback year and is getting a $350 k raise, nearly double what Cobb got.  

Man I hope you're right, Because I love John Means, If Theirs not something in the   Meds Why are the not trying to extend him.

[Going Underground]

2 hours ago, Safelykept said:

Man I hope you're right, Because I love John Means, If Theirs not something in the   Meds Why are the not trying to extend him.

Pitched in six games in the last two years. Will be 32 in his free agent year. Don't see an extension at this time.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Going Underground said:

Pitched in six games in the last two years. Will be 32 in his free agent year. Don't see an extension at this time.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to extend him if he pitches well his first 5-10 starts.  

Means’ injury was pretty poorly timed when it came to maximizing his income during his Arb years.  He’ll have made just a little more than $9 mm total in his three years, where if he’d been healthy and pitched to his career average he’d probably have made $19 mm or so.   He really needs to have a good, healthy season to cash in.

 

 

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to extend him if he pitches well his first 5-10 starts.  

Means’ injury was pretty poorly timed when it came to maximizing his income during his Arb years.  He’ll have made just a little more than $9 mm total in his three years, where if he’d been healthy and pitched to his career average he’d probably have made $19 mm or so.   He really needs to have a good, healthy season to cash in.

 

 

To cash in with who? He goes 10, 12 starts into the season puts you at what middle to late June. The only thing  i have advocated is a 2 year ext.You wait to the middle of season whats to keep from pitching the rest of season opting for FA. Point being if he pitches even only 150 innings to his norm, hes going to get 3 if not 4 years

[wildcard]

Means projects to pitch 25 starts,  150 IP at a 3.74 ERA for each of the next three years.   O's will get a bargain in 2024.   He is easily worth 15m per year.  If he gets through ST healthy the O's would be smart to sign him to a 3/35-40m contract.   

Anyone been paying attention to what starters on getting of the FA market?

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Means projects to pitch 25 starts,  150 IP at a 3.74 ERA for each of the next three years.   

 

Says who?  You?

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Says who?  You?

You’ve heard of Steamers?  This is Dreamers Projections.