Orioles 2024 Best defensive combination

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Mayo should not sniff 3B on this Orioles team. There's literally 4 other better defensive 3B ahead of him. He's a 1B or RF. There's nothing wrong with acknowledging that. 

Well if you say so... lol 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well if you say so... lol 

I mean the minor league numbers don't lie. He's approaching 90% fielding percentage, which is abysmal. He has a lot to prove if he wants to play 3B in the major leagues ahead of Gunnar, Westburg, or Ortiz.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

I mean the minor league numbers don't lie. He's approaching 90% fielding percentage, which is abysmal. He has a lot to prove if he wants to play 3B in the major leagues ahead of Gunnar, Westburg, or Ortiz.

Be clear on your argument. Is your argument that he can't play 3B effectively, or there are better options? 

And do you do all your assessments based off minor league fielding error rates? Isn't that a little pre-2000ish way of evaluating? 

[interloper]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Be clear on your argument. Is your argument that he can't play 3B effectively, or there are better options? 

And do you do all your assessments based off minor league fielding error rates? Isn't that a little pre-2000ish way of evaluating? 

I think he'd be okay there every now and then, I just don't think right now he's qualified to be a starter over there on this team. Pretty high standard right now. If we were rebuilding, sure, chuck him out there like we did with Mountcastle. 

I'll grant you fielding percentage isn't a great metric. But when it's THAT bad, there's definitely some deficiencies with his defense. Sounds like he's improving so I'm not ruling out that he can hack it in a few years. I just don't know why we're in any rush to play him at 3B in 2024 given the elite infielders we have and the development he can still benefit from at AAA for most of this year. 

I suppose I was a shade harsh on him. Personally I just like him being a masher in RF, depending on what Kjerstad is up to. 

Edited January 10 by interloper

[wse120372]

21 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Santander may have improved last year from his previous two years, but he was still -1 OOA and -3 FRV. 

I know everyone wants to remember a few plays by Cowser in the outfield and want to say he's a bad defender, but I've seen him a ton in the minors and he's going to be a very good corner outfielder and adequate CF fill in.

Cowser needs reps in a MLB ball park. It's not an easy adjustment due to the third deck. His jumps will get much better in time. I see him playing a lot of LF this year. 

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Be clear on your argument. Is your argument that he can't play 3B effectively, or there are better options? 

And do you do all your assessments based off minor league fielding error rates? Isn't that a little pre-2000ish way of evaluating? 

You (Tony)  have other things to go on, having watched a lot of him in person and/or on film and talking to scouts, etc.   But from a statistical point of view, there’s not much out there for minor leaguers.  wildcard likes to cite range factor, but I think that’s a terribly misleading statistic because it depends way too much on factors the fielder can’t control.  I’ve seen fielders with good fielding percentages who aren’t that good due to limited range, and I’ve seen fielders with slightly below average fielding percentages who make up for it with spectacular range.   But Mayo’s percentage is quite bad - it wouid take a lot of range to make up for it and I’ve never heard that Mayo’s range is anything special.  Really, the best arguments for Mayo are (1) minor league fielding percentages tend to be a bit low due to non-optimal field and lighting conditions, and (2) Mayo has improved a lot, is a hard worker and should continue to improve.  I am on board with your assessment that he should be able to play a decent 3B, I just think our other alternatives are better defensively at 3B, even though Mayo has a better arm than some of them.   It could be that the way things will line up, Mayo at 3B will still be our best option to maximize the offense/defense combo on the field, but my gut feeling is that we’d have a better combo if Mayo is in RF or 1B.

[Aristotelian]

I haven't watched Mayo closely but none of the reports I have seen talk much about his defense other than arm. When you combine the reports with the body type and then you see a .900 fielding percentage, it's a reasonable conclusion that we have better options there. I have always thought he would end up at 1B despite the arm.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I haven't watched Mayo closely but none of the reports I have seen talk much about his defense other than arm. When you combine the reports with the body type and then you see a .900 fielding percentage, it's a reasonable conclusion that we have better options there. I have always thought he would end up at 1B despite the arm.

We do have a better option…Henderson. Henderson is the long term third baseman. 

That doesn’t mean Mayo can’t handle the position…he’s just not as good as Henderson and we have SS candidates that, combined with Henderson at third, give us a better left side of the IF.

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We do have a better option…Henderson. Henderson is the long term third baseman. 

That doesn’t mean Mayo can’t handle the position…he’s just not as good as Henderson and we have SS candidates that, combined with Henderson at third, give us a better left side of the IF.

I think this is the key point that some here are missing. I have never argued that Mayo is the best defensive option at 3B amongst current candidates, and yes, Gunnar is the best combo option at 3B, but I've seen people just be dismissive of Mayo at 3B at all.

Now I understand and agree with those who say there are better defensive options at 3B, and Mayo very well may be a better long term fit in RF or 1B (though I think Basallo will be a lot there to save his bat), but if Ortiz is moved this offseason (and that's a big IF still), then Gunnar is my everyday SS and I'd rather see Mayo at 3B than Urias (assuming Westburg is still here and at 2B). 

I lot depends on who is still here come spring training. I will say IF Ortiz is still here and wins the SS job, moving Gunnar to 3B, then i think they send Mayo back to AAA. If they do that, I'd like to see him get a healthy amount of starts in RF.

 

[Sports Guy]

I have talked about this a lot of the last several months but how quickly the Os are ready to promote guys is a huge story and it goes with this thread as well.

Between right now and mid June, it’s very likely that Ortiz, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo and Holliday will be ready.

The first question will be, which of those guys is still here on OD and the next question is, of those guys who do you prefer to keep.

If we are talking purely about upside and we, for arguments sake, say that Holliday advances enough defensively to stay at SS, I think it’s safe to say that the Os best lineup will have Basallo, Mayo and Holliday in it long term. 

Now, thinking about that, it means that we have Westburg or Ortiz at second, Holliday at SS and Henderson at third. We then have Mayo and Basallo at first or DH…but of course, Mayo may also be able to handle RF.

If we think of it in those terms, that has it as Basallo at first and Mayo in RF.  That leaves 3 open positions…LF, CF and DH. 

Going back to that original 5 I mentioned, Kjerstad can not handle CF or LF in OPACY. Cowser can handle LF. Obviously the hope is Bradfield can be the CFer. Kjerstad could handle DH and maybe play some at first and in RF, especially if Basallo will still handle some catching duties.

But it seems to me that it’s Kjerstad and not Cowser that could be the odd man out due to the defensive question marks.

So, if we go with that premise, it means Kjerstad and one of Westburg or Ortiz seem to be the most likely to go plus any of the vets.

Best case scenario between now and mid June is to trade those 2 for a high end pitcher and move Mountcastle or Santander.  Bring up Mayo and Holliday by mid June. 
 

 

Edited January 11 by Sports Guy

[CaptainRedbeard]

Mayo is just one of so many long term question marks defensively. I think Adley and Cowser are the only big pieces where we definitely know where they will be playing?

Henderson - Good enough for SS now, but best at 3B long term?

Holliday - Good enough for 2B now, but eventually best at SS?

Westburg - Is he better suited for 2B than 3B because of his arm, or interchangeable?

Ortiz - If he’s not playing SS, is his bat good enough to be a starter at 2B or 3B?

Mayo - Can he stick at 3B? If he can’t stick at 3B, can he even play average defensively anywhere? If he moves off 3B because of size and lack of athleticism/range as he ages, is he a subpar RF? If he moves off 3B because he makes too many non-throwing errors, won’t that still be a problem at 1B?

Kjerstad - Probably ok in RF for now, but is he capable of playing 1B? Is he really best suited to DH and can play in the field as needed to rotate other guys through DH?

Basallo - Can he stick at C, or at least enough to start ~60 games there when Adley is DHing or getting off days?

I don’t envy Elias needing to figure this out. They’ve got too many infielders to play at the MLB level (and I’m not even counting Norby here) and all of their bats are ready or will be this season. It makes sense to trade from this strength for pitching but deciding who is most expendable is a complex puzzle and with a lot of unknowns.  

 

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Mayo is just one of so many long term question marks defensively. I think Adley and Cowser are the only big pieces where we definitely know where they will be playing?

Henderson - Good enough for SS now, but best at 3B long term?

Holliday - Good enough for 2B now, but eventually best at SS?

Westburg - Is he better suited for 2B than 3B because of his arm, or interchangeable?

Ortiz - If he’s not playing SS, is his bat good enough to be a starter at 2B or 3B?

Mayo - Can he stick at 3B? If he can’t stick at 3B, can he even play average defensively anywhere? If he moves off 3B because of size and lack of athleticism/range as he ages, is he a subpar RF? If he moves off 3B because he makes too many non-throwing errors, won’t that still be a problem at 1B?

Kjerstad - Probably ok in RF for now, but is he capable of playing 1B? Is he really best suited to DH and can play in the field as needed to rotate other guys through DH?

Basallo - Can he stick at C, or at least enough to start ~60 games there when Adley is DHing or getting off days?

I don’t envy Elias needing to figure this out. They’ve got too many infielders to play at the MLB level (and I’m not even counting Norby here) and all of their bats are ready or will be this season. It makes sense to trade from this strength for pitching but deciding who is most expendable is a complex puzzle and with a lot of unknowns.  

 

 

I would bet Elias already knows what he’s going to do. However, he does have to thin out some options in an effort to win now and not see guys lose value.

[CaptainRedbeard]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would bet Elias already knows what he’s going to do. However, he does have to thin out some options in an effort to win now and not see guys lose value.

Yeah, I think Elias certainly has a much better idea than we do where these guys should be playing, it’s much harder for us on the outside looking in. He has way, way better information than what is publicly available. But some of it does come down to future development, including physical development and not just in improving skills, and that can still be unpredictable. Holliday and Basallo in particular, but Mayo as well, are so young that even Elias can’t really know what they’re going to be working with physically in 2 years.