Is our no. 2 - 5 prospect pecking order all that clear?

[Frobby]

In the various trade threads, I keep reading that players X, Y or Z are “untouchable,” or in any event, certainly couldn’t be included in a package for player Q.   But is it really that clear what the 2-5 pecking order is, i.e., player X cannot be included in a multiplayer trade but player Y can?

Tony has it 2 Basallo, 3 Mayo, 4 Kjerstad, 5 Cowser.  And I’ve seen folks draw rigid lines about Basallo or Mayo, some even about Kjerstad.  

But when I look at other rankings, opinions on those four players are far from unanimous.  For example, CBS Sportsline has Cowser as our no. 2 prospect, and Basallo below our top 3.  MLB.com has it Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo.

My point is not that these sources are right and Tony is wrong.   My point is that the pecking order between these four is not that clear, and that maybe declaring any of those four off-limits in trade discussions is wrong.  If you like Basallo better than the others, then you offer lesser secondary pieces in combination with him than you would in a trade package where one of the others was the headliner.   Same with deciding about Kjerstad vs. Cowser.

Now, maybe Tony will vomit all over this and say that the divide between these players is very clear and some are too valuable to trade in any scenario or at least for anyone who isn’t a slam dunk current star.   But I’m not so clear on it.  
 

Edited January 14 by Frobby

[Jammer7]

Tony’s list is certainly the most informed, and the most timely. The MLB list will probably be different when their preseason list comes out. That list was last re-ranked at the All Star break, I think. I’m not sure about the CBS list.

BA has Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad. That list is fresh as well, and it is well-informed since Jon Meoli writes it.

IMHO, Holliday is the only untouchable. Basallo, Mayo and Kjerstad should not go anywhere, unless it’s for a crazy-good deal they cannot pass up. 

[Sports Guy]

I think the top 3 are clear and obvious although you can argue over 2 vs 3…I also think there is a drop off between 3 and 4.

[24fps]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In the various trade threads, I keep reading that players X, Y or Z are “untouchable,” or in any event, certainly couldn’t be included in a package for player Q.   But is it really that clear what the 2-5 pecking order is, i.e., player X cannot be included in a multiplayer trade but player Y can?

Tony has it 2 Basallo, 3 Mayo, 4 Kjerstad, 5 Cowser.  And I’ve seen folks draw rigid lines about Basallo or Mayo, some even about Kjerstad.  

But when I look at other rankings, opinions on those four players are far from unanimous.  For example, CBS Sportsline has Cowser as our no. 2 prospect, and Basallo below our top 3.  MLB.com has it Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo.

My point is not that these sources are right and Tony is wrong.   My point is that the pecking order between these four is not that clear, and that maybe declaring any of those four off-limits in trade discussions is wrong.  If you like Basallo better than the others, then you offer lesser secondary pieces in combination with him than you would in a trade package where one of the others was the headliner.   Same with deciding about Kjerstad vs. Cowser.

Now, maybe Tony will vomit all over this and say that the divide between these players is very clear and some are too valuable to trade in any scenario or at least for anyone who isn’t a slam dunk current star.   But I’m not so clear on it.  
 

Last year during spring training I took BA's top 100 and compared it on a spreadsheet with 9 other rankings from a variety of sources including CBS Sportsline, Fangraphs and elsewhere.  The differences including at the top were far, far greater than I anticipated.  You point about lack of unanimity is well taken.

Basallo and Mayo look like they're going to develop abnormally big power to go along with a good overall hit tool.  That could always change, but if it doesn't then you have a talent that doesn't come your way very often.  It's worth the gamble to set them aside IMO.  Cowser and Kjerstad should be good players but I don't think either have the same ceiling.

[RZNJ]

Basallo.  Age 19 THIS YEAR.  Already a taste of AA.  Huge offensive ceiling and good enough to catch.   Basallo and Holliday are UNTOUCHABLE.

Mayo is a clear #3 if he can play 3B.  Again age matters.  22 this year.

Cowser is a divisive prospect.  Most have him top 20 or at least top 40.  Law and Fangraphs have him way, way down.

Having said all that, it appears that Elias has drawn a line that separates the top 5 from everyone else.

[oriole]

It comes down to who you’re talking about trading for as well. The more I learn about Cease, the more I think that every one of the guys you’ve listed is more valuable even if traded straight up. 
 

It’s also about how they fit on the team. There’s a lot of infielders and outfielders that are pretty locked into their positions going forward. Why do we need Mayo when we’ve got Westburg, Henderson, and Holliday taking up spots for the foreseeable future? Basallo is great and all, but he’s worth much more as a catcher and we’ve already got a pretty good catcher on the roster. Considering that Bradfield is the likely heir apparent for CF, a Cowser/Bradfield/Kjerstad alignment is awfully left handed. 
 

Whatever you do, you can’t let any of these guys for a meh starter. Just because the white Sox think that Cease is an ace, doesn’t make him an ace.

[wildcard]

Keep them all and it really does not matter which order they are in.

[emmett16]

To me Mayo & Basallo have a chance to be franchise altering generational talents.   I’m not giving up those lottery tickets.  I’d put them 2 & 3 because I prefer ceilings.  Kjerstad and Cowser look to have floors of MLB regulars with a chance to be really good.  Basallo carries the most risk but also has the biggest upside, he could be 2 or 5 for me.  I think putting these guys in various orders is really just splitting hairs and an exercise on what’s most important to the person ranking them.  

[Moose Milligan]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the top 3 are clear and obvious although you can argue over 2 vs 3…I also think there is a drop off between 3 and 4.

Agree. It’s Holliday #1 and you can make the case for Basallo/Mayo or Mayo/Basallo at #2 and #3. Then it’s Cowser/Kjerstad or Kjerstad/Cowser. 
 

It is clear between 3 and 4. 

[Three Run Homer]

To the extent that there is genuine disagreement within the industry about the value of different prospects, this is something that a smalrt GM can exploit.  If there are people in the industry who see (say) Cowser as a top 20 prospect while Elias only regards him as the team's 4th best prospect,  then trade him to the true believers and let the other team suffer from the Winner's Curse.  

[RZNJ]

Kjerstad has great power potential but aggressive tendencies.

Cowser has great all-around offensive potential but contact issues.

Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo all showed great offensive potential with great (Holliday) to good plate discipline AND Basallo and Mayo showed improved plate discipline after promotions.   Basallo and Mayo trending up!

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

To the extent that there is genuine disagreement within the industry about the value of different prospects, this is something that a smalrt GM can exploit.  If there are people in the industry who see (say) Cowser as a top 20 prospect while Elias only regards him as the team's 4th best prospect,  then trade him to the true believers and let the other team suffer from the Winner's Curse.  

I like to think Cowser can be a top 20 prospect AND our 4th best prospect.  Lol

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

In the various trade threads, I keep reading that players X, Y or Z are “untouchable,” or in any event, certainly couldn’t be included in a package for player Q.   But is it really that clear what the 2-5 pecking order is, i.e., player X cannot be included in a multiplayer trade but player Y can?

Tony has it 2 Basallo, 3 Mayo, 4 Kjerstad, 5 Cowser.  And I’ve seen folks draw rigid lines about Basallo or Mayo, some even about Kjerstad.  

But when I look at other rankings, opinions on those four players are far from unanimous.  For example, CBS Sportsline has Cowser as our no. 2 prospect, and Basallo below our top 3.  MLB.com has it Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo.

My point is not that these sources are right and Tony is wrong.   My point is that the pecking order between these four is not that clear, and that maybe declaring any of those four off-limits in trade discussions is wrong.  If you like Basallo better than the others, then you offer lesser secondary pieces in combination with him than you would in a trade package where one of the others was the headliner.   Same with deciding about Kjerstad vs. Cowser.

Now, maybe Tony will vomit all over this and say that the divide between these players is very clear and some are too valuable to trade in any scenario or at least for anyone who isn’t a slam dunk current star.   But I’m not so clear on it.  
 

I have 

Holiday 

Mayo

Kjerstad

Basallo 

Ortiz

Cowser

[ChosenOne21]

For me Holiday, Basallo, Mayo are basically untouchable. I'd trade Kjerstad or Cowser, but probably not both. Don't have a huge preference on who stays.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I have 

Holiday 

Mayo

Kjerstad

Basallo 

Ortiz

Cowser

Kjerstad over Basallo is a bold take.

I'm not sure I'd do that even if you guaranteed me Basallo won't stick at Catcher.