Is our no. 2 - 5 prospect pecking order all that clear?

[Warehouse]

Elias has said multiple times that only 2 or 3 players are untouchable.  For me, the dividing line is 60 prospect (future all-star) vs 55 prospect (above average regular).

I think most updated rankings will have Basallo and Mayo as 60 prospects or better. 

I don’t think there is a strong case to rate Cowser or Kjerstad as a 60 prospect. 

I know MLB pipeline rated Cowser as a 60 last year, but I think that’s a stretch unless he sticks as a true centerfielder. I expect they’ll bump him down a notch this year.  As a corner outfielder with an MILB K% of 26%, questions about ability to handle high velocity/offspeed, and good but not elite power, I think 60 is a stretch.

Likewise, Kjerstad has a very high chase rate, underwhelming AAA power numbers, and non-zero DH risk. 

They are both very strong 55 prospects, but I don’t see the case for 60.  Some may argue draft pedrigee, high OPS in run-inflated international league, or gut feeling, but I don’t find these convincing.

 

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Elias has said multiple times that only 2 or 3 players are untouchable.

One of the ways I would parse this is as Mike Elias code to Chris Getz like Garrett Crochet and/or Michael Kopech coming with Dylan Cease might gain access to Coby Mayo.

Or to Peter Bendix in reference to Jesus Luzardo and Tanner Scott.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What if Basallo gives us 2-3 years as a catcher while he’s young?  Heck. Kjerstad, might not have 2-3 years in him as a RF. 

Why does that matter? 

[waroriole]

I think 2 and 3 are clear. Basallo and then Mayo. I put Cowser above Kjerstad. In a deal for Cease they’re all off the table. Westburg too. 

[AnythingO's]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

I'm not as high on Cowser as some. What does a successful Cowser look like at the MLB level? A corner OF with 55 power? Is that the profile we want, as a legitimate first division contender? To me, he also has a lot to prove about his makeup. 

I think Kjerstad is a little underrated by some. Another year of experience and I think we see less swing and miss, better decisions and we see him get to his 65 power more. He’s a better defender than some say, probably about average, maybe a tick above. Maybe around the same as Santander, another underrated defender. 

I also believe HK is underrated here. His line after June and July at AAA was  Then, after playing continuously from June 2022 trying to makeup for 2 lost years, he cratered in August hitting 0.228 before rebounding in Sept to 0.375 and getting called up. The final line in AAA  was heavily influenced by August. His bat is closer to Mayo than Cowser. Many don't think he can stick in RF but why? Savant has both Kjerstad and Cowser rated 64 in sprint speed (27.9 fps) when Mullins is rated 68 (28.0 fps). Hays by comparison is rated 53 (27.5 fps). HK had 5 triples at AAA vs 1 for Cowser, in fewer ABs, and never drew a throw. HK had another 3 triples in AA. So it's not speed. Fangraphs rates HK as 6.0 in their Speed rating which includes baserunning, Cowser is 4.9 where 5.0 is good/average and Mayo, who many want in RF because of his arm, was 3.3. Cowser has a better arm than HK but HK's bat is ready now and Mayo's is close behind. In the Holiday batting video, Tony-OH wondered who the othe rguy was with a really fast bat, it was HK. Cowser needs to fix his 27-28% SO rate at AAA and work on defense in LF. Santander is a viable 1B-DH, moving O'Hearn for a low level prospect just makes sense to free ABs for HK.

Edited January 15 by AnythingO's
typo

[Tony-OH]

On 1/14/2024 at 5:48 PM, Frobby said:

In the various trade threads, I keep reading that players X, Y or Z are “untouchable,” or in any event, certainly couldn’t be included in a package for player Q.   But is it really that clear what the 2-5 pecking order is, i.e., player X cannot be included in a multiplayer trade but player Y can?

Tony has it 2 Basallo, 3 Mayo, 4 Kjerstad, 5 Cowser.  And I’ve seen folks draw rigid lines about Basallo or Mayo, some even about Kjerstad.  

But when I look at other rankings, opinions on those four players are far from unanimous.  For example, CBS Sportsline has Cowser as our no. 2 prospect, and Basallo below our top 3.  MLB.com has it Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo.

My point is not that these sources are right and Tony is wrong.   My point is that the pecking order between these four is not that clear, and that maybe declaring any of those four off-limits in trade discussions is wrong.  If you like Basallo better than the others, then you offer lesser secondary pieces in combination with him than you would in a trade package where one of the others was the headliner.   Same with deciding about Kjerstad vs. Cowser.

Now, maybe Tony will vomit all over this and say that the divide between these players is very clear and some are too valuable to trade in any scenario or at least for anyone who isn’t a slam dunk current star.   But I’m not so clear on it.  
 

I won't vomit all over this, but their is a clear line for me between 2-3 and 4-5. 

It's not that I don't like Kjerstad and Cowser, it's just they have a chance to be good major leaguers while Mayo and Basallo have a chance to be impact major league stars.

Honestly, Basallo may have the highest ceiling of anyone in the organization to include Gunnar and Adley. 

There are always going to be varying opinions and you can take what you want out of these other places when it comes to evaluating prospects (I honestly didn't know cbssportline was still a thing and definitely didn't know they did prospect evaluations).

It sound like from the reports Elias is hesitant to trade any of the top 5 anyways, but for me, the top 3 are basically off the table since anyone you would be willing to trade them for, the other team is not going to want to trade.

[Tony-OH]

On 1/14/2024 at 6:58 PM, RZNJ said:

Basallo.  Age 19 THIS YEAR.  Already a taste of AA.  Huge offensive ceiling and good enough to catch.   Basallo and Holliday are UNTOUCHABLE.

Mayo is a clear #3 if he can play 3B.  Again age matters.  22 this year.

Cowser is a divisive prospect.  Most have him top 20 or at least top 40.  Law and Fangraphs have him way, way down.

Having said all that, it appears that Elias has drawn a line that separates the top 5 from everyone else.

And they are typically the ones that have access to some minor league statcast data. I wonder if they've dropped him so much over the ability hit good velocity and left-handed breaking balls? 

This was the reason he was #5 for me vs #4 even though he's a much better defender and runs better than Kjerstad. 

Kjerstad has a 2023 version of O'Hearn floor. Cowser has a left-handed hitting version of McKenna as a floor.

[Tony-OH]

On 1/15/2024 at 10:50 AM, Roll Tide said:

I only really look at MLB… not paying for Baseball America and I’m not a fan of Fangraphs. So it’s just MLB.com. 
 

Im not sure what you’re at here.  I agree that they should know better than me since they are paid to work on this stuff. 
 

In my mind, I’m still going with what I have until a reason (his AA season) changes my mind. Even then, as I mentioned, I’m concerned he ends up a DH or 1B. That decreases his value quite a bit. Tony, and other sources think he can stick at Catcher. But, I don’t think anyone is saying it’s a lock. Plus his defensive skills at C are still developing. MLB since you brought it up has his defense as a 45 but a 60 ARM. I’m not sure but I think 50 is average. So he’s considered below on the fall report.

 

Anyway, you don’t have to agree. You can go with the colored bubbles outlook. I have no problem that you have him ranked higher than me. Truthfully, if I, dealing any of our top 4 guys besides Cowser it’s him. 

The only reason to move Basallo off catcher is to save his legs so it doesn't affect his bat. He showed me last year there was a little reason not to think he can't play a solid defensive catcher at the major league level. He's got a plus, plus arm, he receives pretty well, he blocked better last year and he works really, really hard at all aspects of his game. 

I'm unsure of game calling overall, but I'm sure that will continue to get better with experience and besides, with as much info as they're given on those cards, its becoming less and less of a something catcher's have to do. 

[NCRaven]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The only reason to move Basallo off catcher is to save his legs so it doesn't affect his bat.

The only reason that I see for moving Basallo is Rutschman's presence as the everyday catcher and the lack of quality 1B depth in the system.  As I've said elsewhere, I think Mayo fits best in RF with his arm and an already full slate of infielders capable of playing 3B (Henderson and Westburg, primarily).  I don't think Kjerstad belongs in the infield.  Just from a roster building standpoint, a lineup of Rutschman (C), Basallo (1B), Holliday (2B), Henderson (3B), Mayo (RF), Bradfield (CF), Cowser (LF), and Kjerstad (DH) would be a homegrown dream team.  And, there is more talent on the farm.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

The only reason that I see for moving Basallo is Rutschman's presence as the everyday catcher and the lack of quality 1B depth in the system.  As I've said elsewhere, I think Mayo fits best in RF with his arm and an already full slate of infielders capable of playing 3B (Henderson and Westburg, primarily).  I don't think Kjerstad belongs in the infield.  Just from a roster building standpoint, a lineup of Rutschman (C), Basallo (1B), Holliday (2B), Henderson (3B), Mayo (RF), Bradfield (CF), Cowser (LF), and Kjerstad (DH) would be a homegrown dream team.  And, there is more talent on the farm.

Is Ortiz your SS?

[NCRaven]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Is Ortiz your SS?

Crap!  Meant to have Henderson at SS and Westburg at 3B!

[Frobby]

To my point in the OP, per MLB.com:

17.  Bassllo

19. Cowser

30. Mayo

32. Kjerstad 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

 

[Roll Tide]

On 1/14/2024 at 5:48 PM, Frobby said:

In the various trade threads, I keep reading that players X, Y or Z are “untouchable,” or in any event, certainly couldn’t be included in a package for player Q.   But is it really that clear what the 2-5 pecking order is, i.e., player X cannot be included in a multiplayer trade but player Y can?

Tony has it 2 Basallo, 3 Mayo, 4 Kjerstad, 5 Cowser.  And I’ve seen folks draw rigid lines about Basallo or Mayo, some even about Kjerstad.  

But when I look at other rankings, opinions on those four players are far from unanimous.  For example, CBS Sportsline has Cowser as our no. 2 prospect, and Basallo below our top 3.  MLB.com has it Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo.

My point is not that these sources are right and Tony is wrong.   My point is that the pecking order between these four is not that clear, and that maybe declaring any of those four off-limits in trade discussions is wrong.  If you like Basallo better than the others, then you offer lesser secondary pieces in combination with him than you would in a trade package where one of the others was the headliner.   Same with deciding about Kjerstad vs. Cowser.

Now, maybe Tony will vomit all over this and say that the divide between these players is very clear and some are too valuable to trade in any scenario or at least for anyone who isn’t a slam dunk current star.   But I’m not so clear on it.  
 

So it’s an interesting topic but even the mentioned forums lists don’t matter. I doubt a GM is using them and that includes Elias. It’s only matters how they are valued by him and his trade partner.

[Warehouse]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

To my point in the OP, per MLB.com:

17.  Bassllo

19. Cowser

30. Mayo

32. Kjerstad 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

 

Yes, but they have Holliday as a 70 future value and the other five O’s prospects as 55 future values.  I think 60 FV is the dividing line for being untouchable in most trade scenarios (i.e., less than 4 controllable years coming back).

I think it’s more reasonable to evaluate Mayo or Basallo as 55 FV (which probably means viewing them as pure 1B) than to put Cowser or Kjerstad as 60 FV given some of their weaknesses.  

That being said, I would bet the Orioles have a rosier view of Mayo and Basallo’s potential defensive future and that they place a 60 FV on both (maybe even 65 for Sammy).  

I also think Pipeline is overly optimistic rating Cowser as among the best 55 FVs given his swing and miss issues in both Norfolk and Baltimore last year.  I’m skeptical that, say, Elias has offered Mayo but Getz is holding out for Cowser and Mike won’t budge.

Overall, it’s good news for us to have divergent views on sorting our top prospects, as it makes it easier to line up on a trade if another team has O’s prospects in a different order than Elias does.  Of course, it doesn’t matter if Getz ranks one of our prospects differently than Elias if he’s asking for $100MM+ in projected prospect surplus value.

[Just Regular]

On the MLB Network program accompanying the list release, Dan O'Dowd, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo were the panel.    Some of the comments on our guys:

O'Dowd on Kjerstad - I think he's ready to play in big leagues but everyday at-bats crucial at this stage of the development process.

Mayo on Mayo - he disagreed with the honor given CHC Owen Caissie a moment earlier for "best power".    The overall 4-sentence assessment on defensive role - its tone was more concession he needs to go over to 1B.

Callis on Cowser - good instincts on bases, very solid player who can do a little bit of everything to help a team win.  #Westburg   Callis went to the "church of Judge" (42K in 84 PA) on the great citation of small sample size for a batter's first encounter with MLB pitchers.

Mayo on Basallo - his power highlighted as "wow, plus tool" in direct contrast to the summary on Colton Cowser not having any.    Mayo volunteered that "he's still just figuring it out because he's so young".     

I'm not sure I buy that take from Jonathan Mayo on Basallo, who has been in the Sigbot's loving hug several years now and I think that process has probably gotten him as close to full skill polishing as any teenager on the planet, without actually you know letting them try to compete with Kyle Gibson or Gerrit Cole IRL.

Edited January 27 by Just Regular