Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens: “C’mon Orioles, Do Something!”

[tntoriole]

So is the purpose of Fangraphs “predictions” to get correct who actually wins the most or championships?  And do they have a track record of being correct? 
 

it seems mainly they say well the actual winners didn’t do what they should have done but no our model is wonderful 

 

like say betting on horses.. it is interesting to know their stride rate, speed down short and long distances, what they had for breakfast… etc .. but the value of predictive rags is do they get who wins right any more than Joe Q blind luck picks. 
 

Put another way.. if i put big money on Fangraph predictions, what would be my chances? 

Edited January 19 by tntoriole

[btdart20]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But winning 1 run games isn’t a repeatable stat. Clutch hitting with RisP isn’t a repeatable stat.

I'm drifting here but two thoughts:

1.  Winning 1 run games is output data.  Decisions (or even sustainability) are based on input data to leads to output data.  

What are the inputs for winning close games or clutch hitting?  How do we improve those inputs?

It's less about the full BP stats because we're not using marginal arms in tight games.  SPs have something to do with it.  So does the hitting, baserunning, and defense.  Maybe defense is more heavily weighted than heading into any specific game?

A couple of good match-up BP arms with a few key metrics?  K%?  GB%?  Low HR/9?  DP%?  

What clutch hitting metrics are we looking at?  High contact%?  Low K%?  Hitting with 2 strikes?  Length of the swing path in the hit zone?  Time of the bat in the hit zone?  Ability to match the pitch angle of entry?

Baserunning?  Defense?

 

2.  Will we be in as many 1-run games in 2024 as we were in 2023?  My guess is no (assuming health for key contributors) because I anticipate our offense will be better and not as dependent on those clutch situations.  IMO, the health factor is the biggest case for adding an SP.  Not saying "101" but we'll lose by 2+ runs and win by 2+ runs more than not.

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I mean they only need one starting pitcher. Sure they could and should pay money to someone like Montgomery or Snell (or whomever if you don't like those guys). Or they could and should trade for someone like Cease or Luzardo (or whomever). 

But it's not like we should be out there making a ton of moves. We just need the one guy and the roster is pretty set other than maybe some bullpen tinkering around the edges. 

It's frustrating that the Orioles are reluctant to spend and slow to trade, yes, full agree. But a several-thousand word article based around the fact that it's January 19 and we haven't yet made the one solitary move that's still needed is kind of wild. 

It's only January 19, but the options have dwindled severely.  There are only two free agent starting pitchers left who would be a clear upgrade over Kyle Gibson (Snell and Montgomery), and both of them are going to cost at least four years and over $100 million; it would be out of character for John Angelos to sign one of them.  There is only one starting pitcher who is definitely available on the trade market who would be a clear upgrade over Kyle Gibson, and the White Sox are being unreasonable in their demands.   There were other options earlier in the off-season to upgrade the rotation, but they are now gone.  

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

I’m not really arguing against you there. There’s definitely more that we could have done, but we’d probably all be pissed if we traded away a lot of talent for a 1 year rental and still didn’t win a World Series. We still have all of that talent to trade now, but now the clock is ticking on most of those guys, so making a trade becomes more necessary every day. Like I said, if we don’t make a meaningful trade by the trade deadline this year, I’ll start to be more pessimistic about it happening like the rest of you. 

I'm still fine with the Erod for Miller deal.

 

[Pickles]

40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

They won more games than they were expected to and they also scored more runs than they were expected to(from Baseruns).

How is that using the best of both worlds?

Both statements are true, they both exceeded their pythag, which is based on RS/RA and also scored more runs than their offense would indicate.

Since neither of those have been shown to be sustainable they are not likely to continue into next season.

This article is from Sept 20.

Being lazy I'll extrapolate it over 162.

The 2023 Orioles scored 807 runs, they should have scored 775 runs.  (It's off a bit since I'm being lazy and the O's actual runs scored were down from that point in the season).

If you plug 775 RS and 678 RA into the system you get a .556 WP, or 90 wins.  That's the same record as the Rangers and one up on the Blue Jays, two up on the Mariners.  That may or may not have been a WC team.

No idea why I just wasted five minutes doing that when I know you won't pay any attention to it.

Maybe someone else will appreciate it.

 

Why wouldn't I pay attention to it?  You just proved my point.  Thanks.

[RarityFlaherty]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm still fine with the Erod for Miller deal.

 

Sure, but in hindsight it doesn’t look like it was all that great of a trade. And he would have probably left in free agency by now anyway,  but if we still had Erod maybe we wouldn’t be as worried about adding a starter right now. Or maybe we would have been better the following years with Erod as a starter.  Who knows? Sometimes the trades you don’t do can be more important than the ones that you actually complete. 

[Pickles]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s wrong.  If the O’s had scored their expected number of runs, their Pythagorean record would have been 89-73.   See the RH side of the chart here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns

i think our odds of making the playoffs this year are pretty decent, but we are by no means a shoe-in.  We need continued growth from our young players and reasonable luck with health.  

Does pretty decent = favored to?

Because if so, then we're on the same page.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Does pretty decent = favored to?

Because if so, then we're on the same page.

How are you defining favored? 
 

A site like FG is saying no, we aren’t a playoff team.

Vegas is saying we have like the 4th best odds to win the WL (closer to 5th than 3rd). It has us as the second best odds to win the division with Toronto right on us.

Second in our division is likely a playoff team. Third is fighting for the spot but decent chance you get in.

ALC likely only has one team. ALW could send 3 or 4 just like the ALE.

So, I would say they are probably a favorite to get one of the 4 eligible spots they can get but not by much and it won’t take much for them to not be in that category.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Sure, but in hindsight it doesn’t look like it was all that great of a trade. And he would have probably left in free agency by now anyway,  but if we still had Erod maybe we wouldn’t be as worried about adding a starter right now. Or maybe we would have been better the following years with Erod as a starter.  Who knows? Sometimes the trades you don’t do can be more important than the ones that you actually complete. 

It was a solid trade that teams going to the playoffs need to make.

I think adding Miller moved the needle and a lot of the times you have to give up value to get that.

To me the biggest issue was that they didn't keep Miller and instead kept O'Day.

[deward]

4 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Sure, but in hindsight it doesn’t look like it was all that great of a trade. And he would have probably left in free agency by now anyway,  but if we still had Erod maybe we wouldn’t be as worried about adding a starter right now. Or maybe we would have been better the following years with Erod as a starter.  Who knows? Sometimes the trades you don’t do can be more important than the ones that you actually complete. 

The process behind the Miller trade was completely sound. That team was a legit WS contender and Miller did everything he was supposed to do after he arrived. ERod was a stiff price to pay, and everyone knew it at the time, but Miller was in high demand and no one would have any complaints if that team had managed to finish the job. ERod would have been dealt during the 2018 fire sale, probably for a disappointing return.

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How are you defining favored? 
 

A site like FG is saying no, we aren’t a playoff team.

Vegas is saying we have like the 4th best odds to win the WL (closer to 5th than 3rd). It has us as the second best odds to win the division with Toronto right on us.

Second in our division is likely a playoff team. Third is fighting for the spot but decent chance you get in.

ALC likely only has one team. ALW could send 3 or 4 just like the ALE.

So, I would say they are probably a favorite to get one of the 4 eligible spots they can get but not by much and it won’t take much for them to not be in that category.

Favored imo is over 50%.  I think the O's have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs.  I personally actually think it's significantly higher.  I'd put their odds at least at 67%.  That seems to put me in line with Vegas.  I'd wager Vegas is more accurate than FG.

And honestly, I don't think Dylan Cease moves the needle one way or another very significantly.

Yeah, there are definitely scenarios where we don't make the playoffs next year.  But is Cease really a buttress against that?  If the issue pops up in the rotation, then yeah he might be.  But if the problem is in the pen or the positional group, then no not really.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Favored imo is over 50%.  I think the O's have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs.  I personally actually think it's significantly higher.  I'd put their odds at least at 67%.  That seems to put me in line with Vegas.  I'd wager Vegas is more accurate than FG.

And honestly, I don't think Dylan Cease moves the needle one way or another very significantly.

Yeah, there are definitely scenarios where we don't make the playoffs next year.  But is Cease really a buttress against that?  If the issue pops up in the rotation, then yeah he might be.  But if the problem is in the pen or the positional group, then no not really.

They are for the O's.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Favored imo is over 50%.  I think the O's have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs.  I personally actually think it's significantly higher.  I'd put their odds at least at 67%.  That seems to put me in line with Vegas.  I'd wager Vegas is more accurate than FG.

And honestly, I don't think Dylan Cease moves the needle one way or another very significantly.

Yeah, there are definitely scenarios where we don't make the playoffs next year.  But is Cease really a buttress against that?  If the issue pops up in the rotation, then yeah he might be.  But if the problem is in the pen or the positional group, then no not really.

Why do you think Elias is going after Cease?  Why do you think Elias has publicly stated that he wants a #3 or better starter?

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why do you think Elias is going after Cease?  Why do you think Elias has publicly stated that he wants a #3 or better starter?

Because he would make the team better.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Because he would make the team better.

And by making the team better, what does that mean for their playoff chances?