Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens: “C’mon Orioles, Do Something!”

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

And by making the team better, what does that mean for their playoff chances?

Improve it.  Of course.  The question is how much.

Let's say it's 180 IP of Dylan Cease vs. 150 IP from Cole Irvin.

How many WAR do you think is the difference?

And how many percentage points does that WAR increase your playoff odds?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Improve it.  Of course.  The question is how much.

Let's say it's 180 IP of Dylan Cease vs. 150 IP from Cole Irvin.

How many WAR do you think is the difference?

And how many percentage points does that WAR increase your playoff odds?

It’s likely at least a 2-3 win difference. Thats huge when talking about making the playoffs.

Plus it makes you far better IN the playoffs.

If you have all this confidence in them making the playoffs as currently constructed and you actually care about winning, your thoughts should solely be on how can we better IN the playoffs.

Not only is it obvious they need to add another legit starter but they also need another real BP arm.

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s likely at least a 2-3 win difference. Thats huge when talking about making the playoffs.

Plus it makes you far better IN the playoffs.

If you have all this confidence in them making the playoffs as currently constructed and you actually care about winning, your thoughts should solely be on how can we better IN the playoffs.

Not only is it obvious they need to add another legit starter but they also need another real BP arm.

I thought the playoffs were a crapshoot?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, dystopia said:

I thought the playoffs were a crapshoot?

They are but it doesn’t take much thought and intelligence that increasing your chances in a crapshoot is a smart thing to do.

[Chelsea_Phil]

You it are a persnickety person, sportsguy.  On this thread and other threads. Thin skin?

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

They are but it doesn’t take much thought and intelligence that increasing your chances in a crapshoot is a smart thing to do.

Either it’s a crapshoot or it’s not. If it is, then all that really matters is getting in and all bets are off after that, and acquiring someone like Cease doesn’t actually move the needle. If it’s not, then making these moves actually does makes a difference. 
 

Don’t project your intellectual and logical failures onto me. 

[Guest]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

Letting people go isn’t exactly an affirmative act.  He’s added Kimbrel and made a couple of other minor moves like Hilliard.   So he hasn’t done much, and even Elias said at the beginning of the offseason that he wanted to add a starting pitcher, hopefully one that could slot in our top 3.  

The winter isn’t over yet, but if Elias did nothing more I’d be very disappointed   That disappointment may or may not correlate to how the team does in 2024, so I won’t freak out about it.   Elias has earned the benefit of the doubt, and it’s not like we don’t have decent options for our rotation.  But I’d be happy if Elias accomplished his own stated goal for buttressing the rotation.  
 

I disagree with you on the benefit of the doubt as far as pitching acquisitions go - he said after the 2022 trade deadline he tried to trade FOR a pitcher. Does anyone really believe that? Then came the 2022 offseason (Gibson), 2023 trade deadline (Flaherty), and now this offseason (-). If you’re not offering real money or real prospects, can it be said you’re trying for a #1/2/3 type arm?

[Frobby]

23 hours ago, tntoriole said:

So is the purpose of Fangraphs “predictions” to get correct who actually wins the most or championships?  And do they have a track record of being correct? 
 

it seems mainly they say well the actual winners didn’t do what they should have done but no our model is wonderful 

 

like say betting on horses.. it is interesting to know their stride rate, speed down short and long distances, what they had for breakfast… etc .. but the value of predictive rags is do they get who wins right any more than Joe Q blind luck picks. 
 

Put another way.. if i put big money on Fangraph predictions, what would be my chances? 

Semantics, but these are projections, not predictions.  They’re done on a mathematical model.  Individual Fangraphs writers also make predictions.  Ben Clemens predicted the O’s would win the AL East. 

[dystopia]

23 hours ago, tntoriole said:

So is the purpose of Fangraphs “predictions” to get correct who actually wins the most or championships?  And do they have a track record of being correct? 
 

it seems mainly they say well the actual winners didn’t do what they should have done but no our model is wonderful 

 

like say betting on horses.. it is interesting to know their stride rate, speed down short and long distances, what they had for breakfast… etc .. but the value of predictive rags is do they get who wins right any more than Joe Q blind luck picks. 
 

Put another way.. if i put big money on Fangraph predictions, what would be my chances? 

It’s to give nerds something to get off to. They certainly aren’t getting any otherwise. 

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, dystopia said:

Either it’s a crapshoot or it’s not. If it is, then all that really matters is getting in and all bets are off after that, and acquiring someone like Cease doesn’t actually move the needle. If it’s not, then making these moves actually does makes a difference. 
 

Don’t project your intellectual and logical failures onto me. 

There is a continuum between a pure crapshoot and absolute certainty.   The playoffs are neither thing.  On the continuum, they are closer to a crapshoot than they are to absolute certainty.   That’s my opinion.  

[tntoriole]

On 1/20/2024 at 11:29 AM, dystopia said:

It’s to give nerds something to get off to. They certainly aren’t getting any otherwise. 

Revenge of the nerds belies that!!! And as a proud nerd, I do fine!!! Lol 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Revenge of the nerds belies that!!! And as a proud nerd, I do fine!!! Lol 

That's kinda rapey.

[Roll Tide]

On 1/19/2024 at 12:52 PM, Pickles said:

Improve it.  Of course.  The question is how much.

Let's say it's 180 IP of Dylan Cease vs. 150 IP from Cole Irvin.

How many WAR do you think is the difference?

And how many percentage points does that WAR increase your playoff odds?

Well it depends which Cease you get. His best is 6.4 and Irvin’s is 2. Even in his worst years he will give you 2-3 WAR. Irvin could be worth very little. But the difference is likely 2WAR IMO. And again, I really don’t want Cease.

[SteveA]

On 1/19/2024 at 11:10 AM, Pickles said:

Both their expected wins and their actual runs (nice how you want to use the best of both worlds to make your argument: the hypothetical when it is convenient and the actual when it is convenient) last year would have been more than adequate to make the playoffs.

Winning 101 games is unlikely this year.

But I repeat: Why should this team not be favored to make the playoffs as of today as currently constructed?

So you think that teams that have a reasonable expectations of making the playoffs shouldn't make an effort to significantly improve the team in the offseason?   Leave that silly "improvement stuff" for the other guys?

Yes it's possible that upsides and positive outcomes will occur and we will have an excellent rotation this year.  Probable?   I don't think so.   But possible, sure.   Still, given the knowledge that about 90% of the teams in MLB each year have significant starting pitching injuries or failures, and the fact that we have clear position player surplus to the point where we have more proven major leaguers and 24+ year old prospects with little left to prove in the minors than we can fit on the roster, not to mention an incredibly low payroll... I don't think you can just sit there and say that it wouldn't be a failure if we don't add at least one quality starting pitcher.  I know there's still time for that to happen, and if they do make a big move to add a quality starter a lot of concern will go away.   But seeing people start rationalizing the fact that we might, or even probably, make the playoffs without doing so is disappointing.

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, SteveA said:

So you think that teams that have a reasonable expectations of making the playoffs shouldn't make an effort to significantly improve the team in the offseason?   Leave that silly "improvement stuff" for the other guys?

Yes it's possible that upsides and positive outcomes will occur and we will have an excellent rotation this year.  Probable?   I don't think so.   But possible, sure.   Still, given the knowledge that about 90% of the teams in MLB each year have significant starting pitching injuries or failures, and the fact that we have clear position player surplus to the point where we have more proven major leaguers and 24+ year old prospects with little left to prove in the minors than we can fit on the roster, not to mention an incredibly low payroll... I don't think you can just sit there and say that it wouldn't be a failure if we don't add at least one quality starting pitcher.  I know there's still time for that to happen, and if they do make a big move to add a quality starter a lot of concern will go away.   But seeing people start rationalizing the fact that we might, or even probably, make the playoffs without doing so is disappointing.

All of this.

This idea that it worked last year, so it’s going to work again is so lazy and ignorant.

What I think you take from last year is that the team has an incredible foundation and they have figured out how to win, at least during the regular season. They are confident and don’t seem to let much bother them. Team chemistry is incredible. They have a ton of respect for Hyde and the coaches.

All of that is important.

But to just assume everything falls in place again and that improvements only need to come from within is just wrong.