Starting pitcher: What would be your preference?

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, ChicagoTerp said:

Just because we can afford it, doesn't mean we should do it. To me, that deal for Cease is what he would be worth if he had just repeated his 2022 stats. It's an overpay for a guy who had the season he just had. Not saying he's a scrub, just too big a question mark for HK and JW.

He would be worth way more than this if he repeated 2022. If he had back to back CY caliber years, he easily fetches one of Holliday or Basallo plus these guys.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

It feels like the obvious choice would be to just sign a free agent, if that’s on the table. That way we keep all of our prospects to trade for a pitcher at the deadline. If we aren’t getting a deal we like now, it’s probably better to make a trade at the deadline when we have a clearer picture of our needs and how players are performing. 

We have a clear picture of our needs right now and if Elias doesn’t want to give up prospects now and didn’t want to give them up last offseason and didn’t want to give them up in the middle of a 100 win season, why would you think he will all of a sudden do it this July?

[drjohnnyfever1]

I voted to stick with what we have.  It's not that I'm opposed to a trade, but I think the guys being discussed as trade chips are potentially more valuable than a couple of years control of Cease or Luzardo.  I think we are more likely to do a one year deal on someone, so the choice for me is stick or a one year deal.  A one year deal is almost an afterthought to me, because we aren't going to get anything close to a TOtO starter, unless Elias hits the lottery on a salvage project again.  So for me, waiting til the trade deadline, seeing what the guys we see as trade chips do playing is my evaluation.  Even with modest performance, those guys aren't going to lose too much shine in the trade market, so getting a clearer idea of what they are capable of in the majors should be the goal.  If they are doing great and some of the guys near the end of their contracts are too, there are options to trade them and still keep our young talent.

[RarityFlaherty]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

We have a clear picture of our needs right now and if Elias doesn’t want to give up prospects now and didn’t want to give them up last offseason and didn’t want to give them up in the middle of a 100 win season, why would you think he will all of a sudden do it this July?

Maybe there are injuries that make it more clear that we need to add a starter.  Also, Cease could perform well to start the season and Elias becomes more willing to part with prospects, or Cease could perform poorly and the price goes down. Or maybe another opportunity arises at the deadline for a different pitcher. 

[interloper]

I went with A simply because I want to watch that Sox board cry when we send Mayo somewhere else. 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

I voted to stick with what we have.  It's not that I'm opposed to a trade, but I think the guys being discussed as trade chips are potentially more valuable than a couple of years control of Cease or Luzardo.  I think we are more likely to do a one year deal on someone, so the choice for me is stick or a one year deal.  A one year deal is almost an afterthought to me, because we aren't going to get anything close to a TOtO starter, unless Elias hits the lottery on a salvage project again.  So for me, waiting til the trade deadline, seeing what the guys we see as trade chips do playing is my evaluation.  Even with modest performance, those guys aren't going to lose too much shine in the trade market, so getting a clearer idea of what they are capable of in the majors should be the goal.  If they are doing great and some of the guys near the end of their contracts are too, there are options to trade them and still keep our young talent.

Why is that a problem?

I think there is a pretty fair shot that six years of Westburg is going to produce more value than two years of Cease.

The supposed goal is to win a title right?

Trading six years for two can be fine if it helps leads to that goal.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why is that a problem?

I think there is a pretty fair shot that six years of Westburg is going to produce more value than two years of Cease.

The supposed goal is to win a title right?

Trading six years for two can be fine if it helps leads to that goal.

I think Elias’ goal is too have a chance at a title each year.  It’s always a balance between present vs. future.  

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Maybe there are injuries that make it more clear that we need to add a starter.  Also, Cease could perform well to start the season and Elias becomes more willing to part with prospects, or Cease could perform poorly and the price goes down. Or maybe another opportunity arises at the deadline for a different pitcher. 

So, you think Elias will part with even better prospects in a few months?  Because that’s what he will have to do if Cease pitches better.

And sure maybe an injury happens but the need for starter is there right now. 
 

And you talk about other opportunities but again, Elias hasn’t shown a willingness to trade anyone of real value when those opportunities have presented themselves.  The more likely outcome is another Flaherty, hope to catch lightning in a bottle trade.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why is that a problem?

I think there is a pretty fair shot that six years of Westburg is going to produce more value than two years of Cease.

The supposed goal is to win a title right?

Trading six years for two can be fine if it helps leads to that goal.

Exactly…and again, do you believe in Elias or not?

Everyone here constantly applauds Elias for what he has built, how well he has drafted and developed, etc…well do you believe he continues to do that or not?  Because if you do, those guys are replaceable.

We are also started to see some real potential from our international guys.

Being afraid to trade guys where you have depth when you are trying to win makes no sense to me.

Keep the elite guys, your top 3..that makes sense because replacing elite talent is very hard to do. However, replacing good to very good talent is much easier.

Do you want to win or do you want to continue to be the top rated farm system?  What matters more?

 

[nsw]

100% agree with RarityFlaherty. It's so frustrating to see the incredible salary room we have go to waste (so far). Our cheap core is a awesome, and adding FAs "for free" prospect-wise is a no-brainer. It sure feels like all of this is up to JA. We've crushed it with the rebuild draft-and-develop-wise. Great "scrap heap" finds, too. The final piece is starting to spend $ on pitching to finish off the roster for our big window that's now wide open.

Maybe the "strategy" is to wait for the deadline and pick up any healthy premium pitchers available for trade at that time. 

[RarityFlaherty]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, you think Elias will part with even better prospects in a few months?  Because that’s what he will have to do if Cease pitches better.

And sure maybe an injury happens but the need for starter is there right now. 
 

And you talk about other opportunities but again, Elias hasn’t shown a willingness to trade anyone of real value when those opportunities have presented themselves.  The more likely outcome is another Flaherty, hope to catch lightning in a bottle trade.

If Elias isn’t willing to trade anyone of real value, then neither of the two trades you propose are going to happen anyway, so your hypothetical scenario is moot and there’s no point in even asking the question. In the scenario that another opportunity arises, your hypothetical already assumes he is wiling to trade Mayo, Kjerstad, and Westburg. 

Edited January 19 by RarityFlaherty

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RarityFlaherty said:

If Elias isn’t willing to trade anyone of real value, then neither of the two trades you propose are going to happen anyway, so your hypothetical scenario is moot and there’s no point in even asking the question. In the scenario that another opportunity arises, your hypothetical already assumes he is wiling to trade Mayo, Kjerstad, and Westburg. 

That’s the point!  If he won’t do the trade after 3 other major opportunities to move someone, why would you then believe he will do it at a 4th opportunity?  YOU are the one bringing up the idea that pays up at the deadline, not me. 

[wildbillhiccup]

59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You have to give up something to get something. If the Orioles intend to convert Mayo to RF, Kjerstad becomes redundant. Plus the Orioles have Cowser, and Beavers on the horizon and the fact that they need the DH spot for Adley at least 40 times a year and he becomes a guy that's available for me even though I do like the bat for the most part.

Westburg is a guy who can play 2B and 3B effectively and he should get to his power more with experience, but he's never going to be 30 plus homer guy and his walk rate has fallen off a bit at AAA and then the majors.

With Ortiz, Urias and Norby (If you are willing to have below average defense) ready, and Holliday on the horizon, he's replaceable this year and the future.

The only way you don't make that deal is if you think Cease is who he was last year and will not recover a bit, but his 3.72 FIP suggests he was better than his 4,58 ERA playing on a losing team suggests.

I'm making that deal if I don't have to add a ton more.

I just think it's too much given the return (mostly the limited years for Cease). I could understand headlining the trade with one of Westberg or Kjerstad, but I would have a hard time giving up both unless we planned on tryin to extend Cease like the Twins did with Pablo Lopez last season. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

I just think it's too much given the return (mostly the limited years for Cease). I could understand headlining the trade with one of Westberg or Kjerstad, but I would have a hard time giving up both unless we planned on tryin to extend Cease like the Twins did with Pablo Lopez last season. 

You think it’s too much but you would give up a much higher ceiling talent for one more year of a pitcher that has had one good season worthy of trading for?

If another team had Westburg and Kjerstad, would you trade Mayo for them?

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Cease is more important to the success of this team the next 2 years than those 2 are.

We have in house replacements for them And have what amounts to essentially be 3 first round picks in June.  On top of that, you likely end up with another first round pick/high pick when Cease walks away after 2025. 
 

 

I understand your point of view, but I'm not overpaying for Cease. To me, giving up both Westberg and Kjerstad (as opposed  to just one) would be a significant overpay IMO. And the only way to justify giving up that much would be if the Orioles intended to try and immediately extend Cease and lock him up for more years post trade (like the Twins did with Lopez last season). That's the only way  I could get behind Westberg + Kjerstad package. 

For the record I voted for the Luzardo trade. I wouldn't be thrilled with having to part iwth Mayo, but I think the value would be better given the fact that he's younger than Cease and under team control for longer.