Starting pitcher: What would be your preference?

[wildbillhiccup]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You think it’s too much but you would give up a much higher ceiling talent for one more year of a pitcher that has had one good season worthy of trading for?

If another team had Westburg and Kjerstad, would you trade Mayo for them?

I think it boils down to how we view Luzardo. You view him as a pitcher who has just one good season and I view him as a younger pitcher under team control for longer who's just starting to come into his own. If you don't think he can continue to build upon the gains he made last season (I do) then I completely understand why you might prefer Cease. 

As for your second question the answer is, it depends. If I was a team looking to contend this season I might. If not, then I'd keep the younger player with more upside. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I understand your point of view, but I'm not overpaying for Cease. To me, giving up both Westberg and Kjerstad (as opposed  to just one) would be a significant overpay IMO. And the only way to justify giving up that much would be if the Orioles intended to try and immediately extend Cease and lock him up for more years post trade (like the Twins did with Lopez last season). That's the only way  I could get behind Westberg + Kjerstad package. 

For the record I voted for the Luzardo trade. I wouldn't be thrilled with having to part iwth Mayo, but I think the value would be better given the fact that he's younger than Cease and under team control for longer. 

The extra year doesn’t matter if he’s not pitching and it should be noted that even though he has the 3rd year, he is a super 2 guy so that 3rd year could be very expensive, maybe more than JA would be willing to spend. That would be a good problem to have but it’s worth noting.

I just don’t see any justification for giving up Mayo just to gain an extra year.  Not to mention also losing Beavers.

Mayo and Beavers > Kjerstad and one year of Luzardo

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think it boils down to how we view Luzardo. You view him as a pitcher who has just one good season and I view him as a younger pitcher under team control for longer who's just starting to come into his own. If you don't think he can continue to build upon the gains he made last season (I do) then I completely understand why you might prefer Cease. 

As for your second question the answer is, it depends. If I was a team looking to contend this season I might. If not, then I'd keep the younger player with more upside. 

I view Luzardo as a good high upside arm but it’s a fact that he has one season of over 101 IP and he’s already 26. The extra year is valuable but only to a certain point.

[interloper]

Imagine giving up Westburg and Kjerstad and Cease just kinda farts out a sub-Kremer-level 4.40 ERA over the next 2 years.

It's a distinct possibility. And that's why we should hold firm and be fine with walking away. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, interloper said:

Imagine giving up Westburg and Kjerstad and Cease just kinda farts out a sub-Kremer-level 4.40 ERA over the next 2 years.

It's a distinct possibility. And that's why we should hold firm and be fine with walking away. 

Imagine giving up those 2, they aren’t much more than role players and Cease pitches at a level that helps to lead us to a title.

 

[btdart20]

#1 - hard pass on trading Mayo+ for Luzardo.

#2 - palatable, but like HK as a MOO and Westburg's grit.  I'd prefer another package for Cease, but get the reason for this package too.

#3 - less than ideal but adds SP depth.  

#4 - Counting on Wells/Hall and then a deadline deal.

 

I went #3.  I like Paxton's upside.  And pairing him with a Wells/Hall tandem can eat some IP.

[interloper]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Imagine giving up those 2, they aren’t much more than role players and Cease pitches at a level that helps to lead us to a title.

Anything is possible I guess. I see that as the much less likely scenario though. There's more chance Cease gets hurt because he's a pitcher, there's more chance he's mediocre because of recent track record, and the pedigree of both prospects suggest they will be solid regulars. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, interloper said:

Anything is possible I guess. I see that as the much less likely scenario though. There's more chance Cease gets hurt because he's a pitcher, there's more chance he's mediocre because of recent track record, and the pedigree of both prospects suggest they will be solid regulars. 

Ahh, the true definition of homerism right here.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I view Luzardo as a good high upside arm but it’s a fact that he has one season of over 101 IP and he’s already 26. The extra year is valuable but only to a certain point.

I've made my case about his IPs and won't completely rehash it, but the short version is that the A's are mostly to blame because of how they chose to use him.  You could also look at those lack of innings as a plus (i.e., less mileage on his arm). 

[RarityFlaherty]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s the point!  If he won’t do the trade after 3 other major opportunities to move someone, why would you then believe he will do it at a 4th opportunity?  YOU are the one bringing up the idea that pays up at the deadline, not me. 

lol you are the one who created this hypothetical. And I thought it was our preference, not “what do you think Elias will do”. If we feel the ask is too high for these trades, my preference would be to just sign a free agent and keep the players for a future trade. 
 

 And I already mentioned reasons why he might be willing to pay more at the deadline. Maybe he becomes desperate due to injuries. Maybe Cease performs well and he becomes willing to pay the asking price. Also, that 4th opportunity could be a way better deal where we aren’t giving up as much. Maybe there’s a pitcher that becomes available that we haven’t even mentioned. Why would he say no to that just because he didn’t like previous trade opportunities? 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Ahh, the true definition of homerism right here.

 

How? I simply said one scenario was more likely. The injury history of pitchers alone is enough to tip the scales, even if only one of Westburg/Kjerstad surpasses role player level. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I've made my case about his IPs and won't completely rehash it, but the short version is that the A's are mostly to blame because of how they chose to use him.  You could also look at those lack of innings as a plus (i.e., less mileage on his arm). 

Well he did also have a Tj surgery iirc. But sure, part of it is usage but it doesn’t change the lack of innings. 
 

And yes, it could be a plus…but it could also be a negative. Durability and availability are 2 extremely underrated things.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

lol you are the one who created this hypothetical. And I thought it was our preference, not “what do you think Elias will do”. If we feel the ask is too high for these trades, my preference would be to just sign a free agent and keep the players for a future trade. 
 

 And I already mentioned reasons why he might be willing to pay more at the deadline. Maybe he becomes desperate due to injuries. Maybe Cease performs well and he becomes willing to pay the asking price. Also, that 4th opportunity could be a way better deal where we aren’t giving up as much. Maybe there’s a pitcher that becomes available that we haven’t even mentioned. Why would he say no to that just because he didn’t like previous trade opportunities? 

It’s just going with what he has done. History has a tendency of repeating itself. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

How? I simply said one scenario was more likely. The injury history of pitchers alone is enough to tip the scales, even if only one of Westburg/Kjerstad surpasses role player level. 

Because your scenario isn’t more likely. 

[Redgrape]

I don't understand what the Orioles are going to do with their log-jam of hitters unless they trade some of them. I think Westburg and Kjerstad being traded would clear that up, so that's how I voted.