Starting pitcher: What would be your preference?

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because your scenario isn’t more likely. 

Well ultimately this is a matter of opinion. I disagree, but not because I'm a homer or something. 

-Cease track record: 1 very good season, significant downturn last year
-Fact: pitchers get hurt more often than position players, and the risk of significant season-ending injuries are higher
-Despite the Orioles' good pitching development program, we haven't had success fixing everybody
-Orioles prospect track record suggests there's a decent chance top prospects like Westburg and Kjerstad become more than bench guys, and outside evaluators of prospects would agree with that. 

I feel like I make a decent case here. How is all of that not more likely than:

-Cease is awesome and the Orioles win the World Series. 

lol 
 

Edited January 19 by interloper

[RarityFlaherty]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

It’s just going with what he has done. History has a tendency of repeating itself. 

Yeah but in your hypothetical, we are making the decision, and there is no history to look back on that could repeat. 
 

And if we are just talking about Elias, I don’t think we’ve seen enough of him to make those kinds of assumptions of what he will and won’t do. We’ve only seen him trying to be competitive at the major league level for like a season and a half. People talk about small sample size with players, so why would you judge Elias from such a small sample size?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, interloper said:

Well ultimately this is a matter of opinion. I disagree, but not because I'm a homer or something. 

-Cease track record: 1 very good season, significant downturn last year
-Fact: pitchers get hurt more often than position players, and the risk of significant season-ending injuries are higher
-Despite the Orioles' good pitching development program, we haven't had success fixing everybody
-Orioles prospect track record suggests there's a decent chance top prospects like Westburg and Kjerstad become more than bench guys, and outside evaluators of prospects would agree with that. 

I feel like I make a decent case here. 
 

1) Cease also had a solid 2021 and there is a lot about his 2023 stats that point to him being better in 2024. He’s also with an awful org who had a terrible defense behind him in 2023. As we know as Os fans, those things matter.

2)  Kjerstad had the myocarditis and the hammy issue. Cease has never been hurt. Sure, his risk of injury is higher because he’s a pitcher but he has been incredibly durable so far.

3) Yea, they should be good players..whether they are legit core guys or role players remains to be seen. 
 

The most likely scenario is those 2 are solid 1.5-3 WAR type guys and Cease is a better version of 2023. That pitcher is more valuable to the Os championship hopes the next 2 years than either of the 2 position players will be..especially in the playoffs.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Yeah but in your hypothetical, we are making the decision, and there is no history to look back on that could repeat. 
 

And if we are just talking about Elias, I don’t think we’ve seen enough of him to make those kinds of assumptions of what he will and won’t do. We’ve only seen him trying to be competitive at the major league level for like a season and a half. People talk about small sample size with players, so why would you judge Elias from such a small sample size?

3 offseason/trade deadline is a big enough sample size for a GM to have an idea of what he will do…or, to put it another way, it gives us an idea of his thought process with these things.

Combine that with horrible ownership and being cheap is the way they are likely to go.

[ChicagoTerp]

If I'm honest with myself I could probably be talked into being ok with either trade. I ultimately trust Elias, and if he likes what he's seen out of Cease and feels he's worth giving up Kjerstad, I'll buy into it.

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1) Cease also had a solid 2021 and there is a lot about his 2023 stats that point to him being better in 2024. He’s also with an awful org who had a terrible defense behind him in 2023. As we know as Os fans, those things matter.

2)  Kjerstad had the myocarditis and the hammy issue. Cease has never been hurt. Sure, his risk of injury is higher because he’s a pitcher but he has been incredibly durable so far.

3) Yea, they should be good players..whether they are legit core guys or role players remains to be seen. 
 

The most likely scenario is those 2 are solid 1.5-3 WAR type guys and Cease is a better version of 2023. That pitcher is more valuable to the Os championship hopes the next 2 years than either of the 2 position players will be..especially in the playoffs.

Fair case made. I still disagree that the "most likely" scenario is the one you put forth, but we're getting into subjectivity and opinion there. I think my scenario is likely enough that Elias is justified in holding off on a trade that includes essentially two top-5 guys (assuming Westburg's talent level is around that #5 or 6 spot had he not graduated). 

Remember - your trade proposal did not include Kjerstad before. I forget exactly what it was but it was pretty sound. I think it was something like Westburg, Beavers, McDermott, and one more guy. 

I will say that the reports that Elias is maybe reluctant to part with Westburg is a little... silly. If you're not ok with Westburg headlining, then that reads as a bit hoard-y for sure. 

Edited January 19 by interloper

[Moose Milligan]

This is exhausting. 

[RarityFlaherty]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

3 offseason/trade deadline is a big enough sample size for a GM to have an idea of what he will do…or, to put it another way, it gives us an idea of his thought process with these things.

Combine that with horrible ownership and being cheap is the way they are likely to go.

I’m not really arguing with that last sentence. I just don’t think that if he won’t do the two trades that you have proposed, that he’s not going to do another trade at the deadline that he might view more favorably.
 

And id really have to see all of the opportunities that he has rejected to say that it’s a big enough sample size. If the only reason he hasn’t pulled the trigger on a trade is because other teams are asking for too much, we really can’t be sure where he draws the line on how much he’s willing to give up. And really this is the first year that we are starting to feel the clock ticking on the prospects we are trying to trade. We haven’t been that desperate to make a trade until this year. If we haven’t made any trades by the trade deadline, I will start to agree with you. 

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is exhausting. 

Yep. They may or may not make a trade, but we've been shown that they are not going to raise the payroll by much. There's not a chunk of money sitting that wasn't spent in the past for future considerations. All of the hypothetical conversations are just ways for us to entertain ourselves.

[wse120372]

I wouldn't like it but I can get on board with HK and Westburg for Cease. It would suck as a fan but that's probably what makes it fair. 

How much better is Westburg than Ortiz? Personally I don't see big enough of a difference to draw the line at Westburg. 

[LTO's]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cease has never been hurt.

Cease has had TJ surgery 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

We have a clear picture of our needs right now and if Elias doesn’t want to give up prospects now and didn’t want to give them up last offseason and didn’t want to give them up in the middle of a 100 win season, why would you think he will all of a sudden do it this July?

Certainty about how certain positions have settled out, and urgency of need.   Not to say he would, but those are two reasons that could change his mind.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RarityFlaherty said:

I’m not really arguing with that last sentence. I just don’t think that if he won’t do the two trades that you have proposed, that he’s not going to do another trade at the deadline that he might view more favorably.
 

And id really have to see all of the opportunities that he has rejected to say that it’s a big enough sample size. If the only reason he hasn’t pulled the trigger on a trade is because other teams are asking for too much, we really can’t be sure where he draws the line on how much he’s willing to give up. And really this is the first year that we are starting to feel the clock ticking on the prospects we are trying to trade. We haven’t been that desperate to make a trade until this year. If we haven’t made any trades by the trade deadline, I will start to agree with you. 

The 2 trades I proposed are also to demonstrate the concept of if you want Luzardo, you have to give up more than Cease and are you willing to part with an elite prospect to get Luzardo vs having to part with good to very good  prospects for Cease.

It is very likely that those are the 2 scenarios Elias is dealing with if he is indeed having discussions on both players.

 Now, if we can get Luzardo for Kjerstad, Westburg, Beavers and say Povich, hell yea..but the Mayo difference is huge for me.

If he does nothing now, didn’t make an impact trade last year and did very little last year, I think that’s plenty to go off of to doubt that he makes an impact move at the deadline. We can hope that he does but at that point, the evidence would be overwhelming that we shouldn’t expect it.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Certainty about how certain positions have settled out, and urgency of need.   Not to say he would, but those are two reasons that could change his mind.  

We have urgency now and while we don’t have all positions settled, we have a good idea.  Neither of those are reasons to believe he will all of a sudden change his way of doing things.

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

We have urgency now and while we don’t have all positions settled, we have a good idea.  Neither of those are reasons to believe he will all of a sudden change his way of doing things.

I disagree.  We could have a lot more urgency at the deadline than we do now.  We will know a lot more about how various young players are performing at different spots on the field.