Are we underestimating Chayce McDermott?

[Flash- bd]

18 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You said, "We're talking about a high school pitcher who has 288 IP as a starter under his belt before last season where he was pitching without his real stuff for most of it." You do realize that's because he's not been able to stay healthy to compile those innings, right? You know he's a guy who's velocity has dropped off already from where he was in his first two years in the minors, right? You do know he's had back, shoulder, and even a strained forearm at points in his career, right?

Absolutely. As with most pitching prospects, injuries are my biggest worry with Hall. That said, his current stuff is certainly still plus, and that's what I focus on. Certainly, further velocity drops in the short-term would really hurt my opinion of him, as it would with anyone. 

18 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Some of you point to his improvement at the major league level when he dropped to 2.3/9 as a reason to be hopeful. Maybe the fact that he never pitched more than two innings of threw more than 27 pitches (not including his one long relief outing early in the year where it took him 75 pitches to get three 3 INNINGS!!) had more to do with that improvement than any sudden better command?

 

Yeah, no doubt, I definitely take this point, and perhaps even more importantly, it's just such a small sample size so to be almost irrelevant. It's more the overall package + lack of development as a SP that makes me think: "it's too early to not think of this guy as a future starter."* 

*We've discussed the other relevant questions here a bit (needs of the team, short-term vs. long-term, etc. here so I won't say more on that)

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

As for McDermott, he has some of the same concerns and we'll need to see how he does in Norfolk this year before making a final call, but he did show more signs last year of potentially being able to stick as a starter. 

 

Interesting. I like McDermott a lot, but on the face of it here's a pitcher who doesn't have that many less IPs as a starter in the minors given the stipulation I put above (242 or so to 288), and is a college pitcher (so different development trajectory), yet in his last 119 IP has a 5.1 BB/9. I suppose you're referring to the fact that he lowered his BB/9 to 4.3 in those 50.2 innings at Norfolk, which, definitely, is better than what Hall has done in his most recent innings at Norfolk.* Or is there more from a scouting perspective that you're seeing that makes you say this? (Genuine question, in a discussion like this it might sound like I'm making these kind of questions in part in a spirit of provocation or challenging your opinion, but as I say, I say it with genuine deference to people who have far more baseball knowledge than I do and interest in them sharing it with me...internet tone is tricky!)

*As I say, I can't help but take a lot of his recent work in the minors with a big grain of salt, due to his lesser stuff after the injury. But you're also right to point out that the two things (injuries and projection) shouldn't necessarily be separated so cleanly as I do.

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Absolutely. As with most pitching prospects, injuries are my biggest worry with Hall. That said, his current stuff is certainly still plus, and that's what I focus on. Certainly, further velocity drops in the short-term would really hurt my opinion of him, as it would with anyone. 

Yeah, no doubt, I definitely take this point, and perhaps even more importantly, it's just such a small sample size so to be almost irrelevant. It's more the overall package + lack of development as a SP that makes me think: "it's too early to not think of this guy as a future starter."* 

*We've discussed the other relevant questions here a bit (needs of the team, short-term vs. long-term, etc. here so I won't say more on that)

Interesting. I like McDermott a lot, but on the face of it here's a pitcher who doesn't have that many less IPs as a starter in the minors given the stipulation I put above (242 or so to 288), and is a college pitcher (so different development trajectory), yet in his last 119 IP has a 5.1 BB/9. I suppose you're referring to the fact that he lowered his BB/9 to 4.3 in those 50.2 innings at Norfolk, which, definitely, is better than what Hall has done in his most recent innings at Norfolk.* Or is there more from a scouting perspective that you're seeing that makes you say this? (Genuine question, in a discussion like this it might sound like I'm making these kind of questions in part in a spirit of provocation or challenging your opinion, but as I say, I say it with genuine deference to people who have far more baseball knowledge than I do and interest in them sharing it with me...internet tone is tricky!)

*As I say, I can't help but take a lot of his recent work in the minors with a big grain of salt, due to his lesser stuff after the injury. But you're also right to point out that the two things (injuries and projection) shouldn't necessarily be separated so cleanly as I do.

I wouldn’t shut the door on Hall starting completely but:

1.  A year in the bullpen may actually be good for his future as a starter.

2.  Corbin Burnes pitched 39, 49, and 59 innings in 2018-2020 mostly as a reliever and then 167 in 2021.   Relieving can be a progression to starting.

3.  With Bautista down and Kimbrel a downgrade I think Halls potential dominance out of the pen is more of a need than a year of trial by fire in the rotation.

4. Last years SSS gave me hope that he can tone down the walks and pitches per inning in a relief role and perhaps translate that to being a starter but let’s give him a year to gain that confidence and experience as a reliever.

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn’t shut the door on Hall starting completely but:

1.  A year in the bullpen may actually be good for his future as a starter.

2.  Corbin Burnes pitched 39, 49, and 59 innings in 2018-2020 mostly as a reliever and then 167 in 2021.   Relieving can be a progression to starting.

3.  With Bautista down and Kimbrel a downgrade I think Halls potential dominance out of the pen is more of a need than a year of trial by fire in the rotation.

4. Last years SSS gave me hope that he can tone down the walks and pitches per inning in a relief role and perhaps translate that to being a starter but let’s give him a year to gain that confidence and experience as a reliever.

I 2nd this approach.

[waroriole]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn’t shut the door on Hall starting completely but:

1.  A year in the bullpen may actually be good for his future as a starter.

2.  Corbin Burnes pitched 39, 49, and 59 innings in 2018-2020 mostly as a reliever and then 167 in 2021.   Relieving can be a progression to starting.

3.  With Bautista down and Kimbrel a downgrade I think Halls potential dominance out of the pen is more of a need than a year of trial by fire in the rotation.

4. Last years SSS gave me hope that he can tone down the walks and pitches per inning in a relief role and perhaps translate that to being a starter but let’s give him a year to gain that confidence and experience as a reliever.

Ideally we sign at least one competent SP and Hall begins the year in the bullpen, along with Wells. However, I’d like to see Hall start the year as more of a multi-inning pitcher. If he’s built up a little, it makes it easier to transition to starting later in the year, if needed or earned. If by the end of the season we need him in a fireman role, he’d be a great weapon in the playoffs. 

Edited January 25 by waroriole

[btdart20]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

3.  With Bautista down and Kimbrel a downgrade I think Halls potential dominance out of the pen is more of a need than a year of trial by fire in the rotation.

This can put Hall at the back of the pack to start the 2024 SP auditions.  Even if he outperforms the rest as an SP, he still may be in the pen.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn’t shut the door on Hall starting completely but:

1.  A year in the bullpen may actually be good for his future as a starter.

2.  Corbin Burnes pitched 39, 49, and 59 innings in 2018-2020 mostly as a reliever and then 167 in 2021.   Relieving can be a progression to starting.

3.  With Bautista down and Kimbrel a downgrade I think Halls potential dominance out of the pen is more of a need than a year of trial by fire in the rotation.

4. Last years SSS gave me hope that he can tone down the walks and pitches per inning in a relief role and perhaps translate that to being a starter but let’s give him a year to gain that confidence and experience as a reliever.

Point 3 is really important.  

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

This can put Hall at the back of the pack to start the 2024 SP auditions.  Even if he outperforms the rest as an SP, he still may be in the pen.

This is another big point I've made in my argument. The Orioles are no longer rebuilding and Hall fills a valuable role in the bullpen for a contending team. Even if someone holds out hope that Hall will suddenly figure it out and do something he's never done before and become a consistent starting pitcher who can pitch 175 innings, the chances of him doing it this coming year is extremely, extremely small.

If this were 2021, I very well may be willing to give Hall another shot at starting and maybe even return him to AAA to work on it, but its' 2024, this team is a contender, and Hall ca be an impact late inning reliever.

 

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

Interesting. I like McDermott a lot, but on the face of it here's a pitcher who doesn't have that many less IPs as a starter in the minors given the stipulation I put above (242 or so to 288), and is a college pitcher (so different development trajectory), yet in his last 119 IP has a 5.1 BB/9. I suppose you're referring to the fact that he lowered his BB/9 to 4.3 in those 50.2 innings at Norfolk, which, definitely, is better than what Hall has done in his most recent innings at Norfolk.* Or is there more from a scouting perspective that you're seeing that makes you say this? (Genuine question, in a discussion like this it might sound like I'm making these kind of questions in part in a spirit of provocation or challenging your opinion, but as I say, I say it with genuine deference to people who have far more baseball knowledge than I do and interest in them sharing it with me...internet tone is tricky!)

*As I say, I can't help but take a lot of his recent work in the minors with a big grain of salt, due to his lesser stuff after the injury. But you're also right to point out that the two things (injuries and projection) shouldn't necessarily be separated so cleanly as I do.

I honestly see McDermott similar to the way I saw Hall coming out of 2021 even though Hall was coming off an an injury plagued season. Basically he gets one more season to improve enough to look like a viable starter, but if it's the same old same old, they have to consider using him in the bullpen where his plus stuff should play even if the command is not great.

 

[Flash- bd]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn’t shut the door on Hall starting completely but:

1.  A year in the bullpen may actually be good for his future as a starter.

2.  Corbin Burnes pitched 39, 49, and 59 innings in 2018-2020 mostly as a reliever and then 167 in 2021.   Relieving can be a progression to starting.

3.  With Bautista down and Kimbrel a downgrade I think Halls potential dominance out of the pen is more of a need than a year of trial by fire in the rotation.

4. Last years SSS gave me hope that he can tone down the walks and pitches per inning in a relief role and perhaps translate that to being a starter but let’s give him a year to gain that confidence and experience as a reliever.

Very fair points, you've kinda convinced me to come back around and agree that we should acquire a starter. 

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I honestly see McDermott similar to the way I saw Hall coming out of 2021 even though Hall was coming off an an injury plagued season. Basically he gets one more season to improve enough to look like a viable starter, but if it's the same old same old, they have to consider using him in the bullpen where his plus stuff should play even if the command is not great.

 

Fair as well, thanks for the explanation! 

[now]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn’t shut the door on Hall starting completely but:

1.  A year in the bullpen may actually be good for his future as a starter.

2.  Corbin Burnes pitched 39, 49, and 59 innings in 2018-2020 mostly as a reliever and then 167 in 2021.   Relieving can be a progression to starting.

Good research with Burnes. Elias seems to be on the same page as this line of thinking, as per Roch's latest:

[Hall] saw a lot of really good success last year in the bullpen and perhaps depending on how spring training goes, we keep him there, slowly stretch him out over the next year or so. It’s also possible we make the move to stretch him out right away. It’s something that we’ve been talking about with him and his camp. But he’s in a good spot right now and he’s somebody that long-term we view as a starting pitcher.”

[jabba72]

58 minutes ago, now said:

research with Burnes. Elias seems to be on the same page as this line of thinking, as per Roch's latest:

[Hall] saw a lot of really success last year in the bullpen and perhaps depending on how spring training goes, we keep him there, slowly stretch him out over the next year or so. It’s also possible we make the move to stretch him out right away. It’s something that we’ve been talking about with him and his camp. But he’s in a spot right now and he’s somebody that long-term we view as a starting pitcher.”

I find it awesome that Elias still wants Hall to be a SP.  Injuries hopefully wont keep derailing him.

[Rbiggs2525]

I do not think he’s underrated here. He’s slotted around the 7th starting pitcher at the moment and that’s perfect for the position he’s in. I expect to see him next year and for him to do well.

[RZNJ]

Baseball America “12 Rookie Pitchers Who Could Breakout In 2024”

Chayce McDermott, RHP, Orioles: Acquired from the Astros in the Trey Mancini trade, McDermott has developed into one of the Orioles’ underrated cache of pitching prospects. McDermott made 26 appearances in 2023, often piggybacking with another starter. As the season wore on and McDermott saw promotion to Triple-A, the reins came off as McDermott went five or more innings in eight of his 10 Triple-A starts to end the season. 

McDermott’s arsenal is led by a four-seam fastball that’s sits 93-95 mph, touching 97 mph at peak with 18 inches of IVB from a 5-foot-7 release height. The pitch generates high rates of whiffs (31.3%) in (25.4% in-zone) and out of the zone. He pairs his fastball with a sweepy low-to-mid-80s slider, a two-plane breaker and a changeup with splitter-like shape. McDermott could be a sneaky breakout for the Orioles this season, as he truly turned a corner as a starter late in 2023. 

[IPlayGM]

He is the minor leaguer that I am most intrigued by this year. Could he take another step and be a legit starter option later this year or definitely next year? If not, could he be a bullpen booster later this season? His stuff sure seems good enough, just needs to sharpen his approach it seems. And throw more strikes.  He just strikes me as a guy that the Os would love, because the stuff is great and they can maximize the other things.

[Malike]

He's going to be a good one. The kid has swing-and-miss stuff in a real way. 3IP 6K's today against 1BB.