Long Elias Interview Today (1/25)

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Wrong.  You should give up your mind reading.  You are terrible at it.

I’m just reading the garbage you put out there. You are good with Wells as the starter. You would happy with Lorenzen.  That’s not making us better. 

[LookinUp]

A couple of other things that Elias said in that long interview.

1. They view Hall as a starter. What they don't know yet is whether they plan to stretch him out in the spring or throughout the year.

2. He's deliberately quiet about player extensions because he wants their agents to know that what's said behind closed doors will stay there. That doesn't mean that we'll extend anyone, but it offers a sliver of hope for those of us who think there's a real chance they extend 1-2 guys this spring.

[LookinUp]

40 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Maybe, but losing Franco is going to sting (no pun intended). And maybe one of Baz / Pepiot breaks out and replaces Glasnow's production, but it's far from a given. 

I think the Rays are an amazing org, but they were crushed by injuries last year and that really hurts this season. They were still hard to beat, but I feel like this might be the year in between really good ones, where they "only" win like 88 games. 

[milbest77]

12 hours ago, Os4days said:

Lets face it, we are going to be essentially the same team as last year playing against a much better division. Not to be a Debbie Downer but I highly doubt we win the division and probably fighting for a wild card.
 

I said it last year that we needed to take advantage of our situation but Elias and Angelos decided to sit on their hands and we’re doing the same thing this offseason. 

This 100%. There is going to be a regression back to the mean. Just a reality. It’s also the drawback of having the top farm system, every other team knows it and therefore will ask for pieces we don’t want to give up. 
 

I didn’t mind the Flaherty trade at the time, at least they did something. But, the proverbial bag of baseballs was too much to give up for him let alone the two kids we sent back. Hindsight. 
 

I get the feeling that particular trade has made Elias gun-shy. I think, at this point, they’ll just wait til ST to scoop up the guys that are desperate for work. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m just reading the garbage you put out there. You are good with Wells as the starter. You would happy with Lorenzen.  That’s not making us better. 

Actually, Lorenzen would allow Wells and Hall and Wells to stay in the pen and probably give us Gibson level performance.   It's not the move anyone wants but it does improve the team as it stands now.  

I still think we'll see a trade for someone more significant.  Hopefully the Marlins so I can go read the WS board afterwards. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, milbest77 said:

This 100%. There is going to be a regression back to the mean. Just a reality. It’s also the drawback of having the top farm system, every other team knows it and therefore will ask for pieces we don’t want to give up. 
 

I didn’t mind the Flaherty trade at the time, at least they did something. But, the proverbial bag of baseballs was too much to give up for him let alone the two kids we sent back. Hindsight. 
 

I get the feeling that particular trade has made Elias gun-shy. I think, at this point, they’ll just wait til ST to scoop up the guys that are desperate for work. 

Let me know when Prieto, Rom, or Showalter are significant contributors in the majors.  I think he regrets that Flaherty sucked.  I don't think he feels like he lost any key prospects in that deal.  

[Moose Milligan]

Another Elias interview that'll be analyzed to death and referenced for the rest of time.  Awesome!

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

A couple of other things that Elias said in that long interview.

1. They view Hall as a starter. What they don't know yet is whether they plan to stretch him out in the spring or throughout the year.

2. He's deliberately quiet about player extensions because he wants their agents to know that what's said behind closed doors will stay there. That doesn't mean that we'll extend anyone, but it offers a sliver of hope for those of us who think there's a real chance they extend 1-2 guys this spring.

They aren’t going to extend anyone.

As for Hall, maybe they will go the Burnes route, as has been talked about on here. It’s definitely possible they feel a year of consistent BP work will help. I’m not sure I buy they will do this but maybe.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, milbest77 said:

This 100%. There is going to be a regression back to the mean. Just a reality. It’s also the drawback of having the top farm system, every other team knows it and therefore will ask for pieces we don’t want to give up. 
 

I didn’t mind the Flaherty trade at the time, at least they did something. But, the proverbial bag of baseballs was too much to give up for him let alone the two kids we sent back. Hindsight. 
 

I get the feeling that particular trade has made Elias gun-shy. I think, at this point, they’ll just wait til ST to scoop up the guys that are desperate for work. 

I don’t think he’s gun shy but I do think he’s afraid to trade certain guys.

I don’t mind a hard line stance of not trading the top 3 guys for what is available. That stance shouldn’t exist for anyone else and there is absolutely zero chance the Os can’t put together a deal using the “other guys” to get what they need.  This is not a 3 player system.

Edited January 26 by Sports Guy

[interloper]

Yeah we can't point to one trade and surmise that Elias is now gun-shy. Elias is a confident GM who is going to stick by his models when it comes to player values and trades and all that. For better or worse, I guess, but a guy this analytically-minded is not going to let the small sample of one bad trade skew how he does his job. 

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I struggle with this sentiment too. I get not wanting to overpay for pitching via a trade or free agency, but I have a hard time understanding how a rational person can say they're perfectly content going into the season with our current starting rotation. Or even our bullpen to a lesser extent, because not signing or trading for an another starting pitching is going inevitiably push Wells and/or Hall into the rotaiton at some point and make our bullpen weaker. 

There are two terms you use in this statement that require better definition.     First, what does it mean to “overpay?”   To me, overpaying is a move that is likely to make your team worse in the long run, and I never want my team to do that.   That’s the judgment Elias has to make.  The fact that we’re paying more than we’d like, or more than other teams have offered, is irrelevant to my definition of overpaying.   

The second term you use is “perfectly content.”   I don’t think anyone here wants to go into this season with our current rotation.   But if the only way to improve the rotation is to overpay, as I’ve defined the term, then at that point I’d live with the current rotation, because I don’t want the team to be made worse long term.   

Note, I am not saying the only way to improve our rotation is to overpay.  That remains to be seen.  

 

[wildbillhiccup]

46 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mateo speed is a weapon and running him out there is the best way to use him.

Running him out there is an expression. It means to play and/or start a player regularly. Playing Mateo regularly would not only hurt the Orioles in the short term, but also in the long term because it would impact the development of better players.  I also think you're overating the speed element. Look at Billy Hamilton. If speed alone is so valuable then why has he played for three different teams in the last two years?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There are two terms you use in this statement that require better definition.     First, what does it mean to “overpay?”   To me, overpaying is a move that is likely to make your team worse in the long run, and I never want my team to do that.   That’s the judgment Elias has to make.  The fact that we’re paying more than we’d like, or more than other teams have offered, is irrelevant to my definition of overpaying.   

The second term you use is “perfectly content.”   I don’t think anyone here wants to go into this season with our current rotation.   But if the only way to improve the rotation is to overpay, as I’ve defined the term, then at that point I’d live with the current rotation, because I don’t want the team to be made worse long term.   

Note, I am not saying the only way to improve our rotation is to overpay.  That remains to be seen.  

 

A lot of trades that are made will probably make the team worse in the long run.  The Miller trade made the team worse in the long run, you wouldn't have made it?  Anytime you are trading six plus years for two or fewer you will run into that.

Sometimes you have to make a move for the current team.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There are two terms you use in this statement that require better definition.     First, what does it mean to “overpay?”   To me, overpaying is a move that is likely to make your team worse in the long run, and I never want my team to do that.   That’s the judgment Elias has to make.  The fact that we’re paying more than we’d like, or more than other teams have offered, is irrelevant to my definition of overpaying.   

The second term you use is “perfectly content.”   I don’t think anyone here wants to go into this season with our current rotation.   But if the only way to improve the rotation is to overpay, as I’ve defined the term, then at that point I’d live with the current rotation, because I don’t want the team to be made worse long term.   

Note, I am not saying the only way to improve our rotation is to overpay.  That remains to be seen.  

 

You are saying you don’t overpay because it likely makes you worse long term.

There is absolutely no way of knowing that.

[milbest77]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let me know when Prieto, Rom, or Showalter are significant contributors in the majors.  I think he regrets that Flaherty sucked.  I don't think he feels like he lost any key prospects in that deal.  

Not really my point, but I get what you’re saying. Hindsight is always 20/20.