Long Elias Interview Today (1/25)

[interloper]

In the interview Elias was talking about how all the teams have room for pitching and quipped that the Dodgers "keep signing pitchers". Wonder if that was an unintentional Paxton frustration-venting. Probably not. 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m just reading the garbage you put out there. You are good with Wells as the starter. You would happy with Lorenzen.  That’s not making us better. 

Elias gets it.  You don't.  He just said he has a team coming off a 100 win season with waves of prospects coming.   He does not want to trade a bunch of his high value prospects for two years of someone that might get injured or be a burst.

He actually referred to the O's doing that in the past and it hurt the team badly.   Glenn Davis  for Schilling, Finley and Harnisch.   Elias does not have to take that kind of risk and it does not sound like he will.

Elias has gotten rid of players that he thinks he can improve on.

Gibson 4.73 ERA replaced by Means 3.74 career ERA and GRod

Frazier replaced by Holliday, Westburg and Ortiz

Hicks replaced by Cowser and Kjerstad

A don't see how anyone thinks that is standing still.   

Edited January 26 by wildcard

[RVAOsFan]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So did Alex Cobb.  Gallardo signed in late February.

I was so pumped when we signed Alex Cobb.  Probably not something I should admit to but I wanted that one last run so bad. 

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not sure why there is such a hesitance from fans to win now. It’s like people only want to win with what’s here.  I get that fans aren’t used to the Os winning or being in the seat of buyers to get over the hump but the fear of it is odd to me.

I am on the side of trying to improve (within reason) but I also get it. Now that we have a good team we have more incentive to win, but we also have fewer needs, and to upgrade is going to cost more. The guys at the bottom of the rotation are Kremer, Irvin, and Wells. They are all cheap, credible MLB level pitchers. Then in the bullpen you have Webb, Tate, and Baumann. Again, cheap, credible pitchers. To upgrade those positions you need not just a good player but a plus-plus player to really move the needle. Those guys cost dollars we don't have and prospects we don't want to part with. I wouldn't say I want to stay put, but I don't want to trade any of our top three prospects for a guy who has maybe 20% chance of underperforming Kremer. And I don't want to trade Ortiz or Kjerstad or a guy who isn't a needle mover.

I believe we could get Cease right now if we were willing to part with Holliday.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias gets it.  You don't.  He just said he has a team coming off a 100 win season with waves of prospects coming.   He does not want to trade a bunch of his high value prospects for two years of someone that might get injured or be a burst.

He actually referred to the O's doing that in the past and it hurt the team badly.   Glenn Davis  for Schilling, Finley and Harnisch.   Elias does not have to take that kind of risk and it does not sound like he will.

Elias has gotten rid of players that he thinks he can improve on.

Gibson 4.73 OPS replaced by Means 3.74 career OPS and GRod

Frazier replaced by Holliday, Westburg and Ortiz

Hicks replaced by Cowser and Kjerstad

A don't see how anyone thinks that is standing still.   

I feel what you're saying here, but there's still plenty of time for Elias to do things that you assume he will not do (i.e.: trade prospects or sign a weird veteran infielder/outfielder that blocks a prospect, etc). Those things don't look likely, but I would just caution about saying anything definitive until late February at least. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias gets it.  You don't.  He just said he has a team coming off a 100 win season with waves of prospects coming.   He does not want to trade a bunch of his high value prospects for two years of someone that might get injured or be a burst.

He actually referred to the O's doing that in the past and it hurt the team badly.   Glenn Davis  for Schilling, Finley and Harnisch.   Elias does not have to take that kind of risk and it does not sound like he will.

Elias has gotten rid of players that he thinks he can improve on.

Gibson 4.73 ERA replaced by Means 3.74 career ERA and GRod

Frazier replaced by Holliday, Westburg and Ortiz

Hicks replaced by Cowser and Kjerstad

A don't see how anyone thinks that is standing still.   

Does everything in life fly over your head or just baseball analysis?  You are the new cindyluvsbrady. 

Edited January 26 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am on the side of trying to improve (within reason) but I also get it. Now that we have a good team we have more incentive to win, but we also have fewer needs, and to upgrade is going to cost more. The guys at the bottom of the rotation are Kremer, Irvin, and Wells. They are all cheap, credible MLB level pitchers. Then in the bullpen you have Webb, Tate, and Baumann. Again, cheap, credible pitchers. To upgrade those positions you need not just a good player but a plus-plus player to really move the needle. Those guys cost dollars we don't have and prospects we don't want to part with. I wouldn't say I want to stay put, but I don't want to trade any of our top three prospects for a guy who has maybe 20% chance of underperforming Kremer. And I don't want to trade Ortiz or Kjerstad or a guy who isn't a needle mover.

I believe we could get Cease right now if we were willing to part with Holliday.

Again, not trading the top 3 is fine…but there is zero reason to take the other guys off the table.

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, interloper said:

I feel what you're saying here, but there's still plenty of time for Elias to do things that you assume he will not do (i.e.: trade prospects or sign a weird veteran infielder/outfielder that blocks a prospect, etc). Those things don't look likely, but I would just caution about saying anything definitive until late February at least. 

I think Elias will add pitching.   He may showcase Norby, Stowers and Urias in ST and see if he can find a 5th starter for some combination of those guys.  If I sound too definite its just the way I write.   I know it will probably not happen the way I write.

Edited January 26 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, not trading the top 3 is fine…but there is zero reason to take the other guys off the table.

Right, but then the question is who we would get for those guys. Probably not Cease. And if it's someone worse than Cease, are they upgrades over Kremer/Wells?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Right, but then the question is who we would get for those guys. Probably not Cease. And if it's someone worse than Cease, are they upgrades over Kremer/Wells?

First of all, there is zero question we can get Cease using guys like a Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg and others (not all of them obviously)

Secondly, there are other guys out there.

Your last question is in the eye of the beholder. First of all, talking about upgrades depends on your view of the player.

Even if you are wildcard and make up bs for Wells, you are absolutely are overlooking so many important things about what you should expect out of his performance and the idea that you take him out of the pen, which is already an issue anyway.

Right now, unfortunately, Kremer  is being handed a rotation spot, so we aren’t getting anyone better than him because we aren’t getting 2 pitchers.

Now, as for “an upgrade”..again, it depends on many factors. Is Edward Cabrera an upgrade?  I think he’s an obvious upgrade because the stats bear it out…but there is a legit floor there because of the command/control issues.

OTOH, it’s likely you don’t need to trade our best prospects to get him.

So the answer to your question is a resounding yes.  You would have to be an incredibly naive person and one who doesn’t understand not pays attention to stats to believe “we are good”. There is no intelligent thought behind that, especially when you start talking about the playoffs.

And spare me the whole, we can trade for a pitcher later.  Yea because Elias doesn’t want to trade prospects now and didn’t want to at the deadline and didn’t want to last offseason  but he’s all of a sudden going to want to in July…and we don’t know who will be available or if there salaries will fit under our payroll structure because of our horrendous owner.

This team absolutely has to add a legitimate starting pitcher. Not Lorenzen, who has poor peripheral stats, bad statcast numbers and has been a reliever for most of his career. 
 

Im very happy to have guys like Wells and Irvin on this team for depth.  We will likely need more than 5 or 6 starters. But relying on them to start entering the year is absolutely dumb. I don’t even care if by some miracle it works out..it’s still dumb.  Jumping off a building and living doesn’t mean you have proven that it’s a smart thing to do.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, there is zero question we can get Cease using guys like a Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg and others (not all of them obviously)

Secondly, there are other guys out there.

Your last question is in the eye of the beholder. First of all, talking about upgrades depends on your view of the player.

Even if you are wildcard and make up bs for Wells, you are absolutely are overlooking so many important things about what you should expect out of his performance and the idea that you take him out of the pen, which is already an issue anyway.

Right now, unfortunately, Kremer  is being handed a rotation spot, so we aren’t getting anyone better than him because we aren’t getting 2 pitchers.

Now, as for “an upgrade”..again, it depends on many factors. Is Edward Cabrera an upgrade?  I think he’s an obvious upgrade because the stats bear it out…but there is a legit floor there because of the command/control issues.

OTOH, it’s likely you don’t need to trade our best prospects to get him.

So the answer to your question is a resounding yes.  You would have to be an incredibly naive person and one who doesn’t understand not pays attention to stats to believe “we are good”. There is no intelligent thought behind that, especially when you start talking about the playoffs.

And spare me the whole, we can trade for a pitcher later.  Yea because Elias doesn’t want to trade prospects now and didn’t want to at the deadline and didn’t want to last offseason  but he’s all of a sudden going to want to in July…and we don’t know who will be available or if there salaries will fit under our payroll structure because of our horrendous owner.

This team absolutely has to add a legitimate starting pitcher. Not Lorenzen, who has poor peripheral stats, bad statcast numbers and has been a reliever for most of his career. 
 

Im very happy to have guys like Wells and Irvin on this team for depth.  We will likely need more than 5 or 6 starters. But relying on them to start entering the year is absolutely dumb. I don’t even care if by some miracle it works out..it’s still dumb.  Jumping off a building and living doesn’t mean you have proven that it’s a smart thing to do.

You know you are talking about Elias here:  (You would have to be an incredibly naive person and one who doesn’t understand not pays attention to stats to believe “we are good”. There is no intelligent thought behind that, especially when you start talking about the playoffs.)

Your strategic thinking vs Elias strategic thinking is not really a good proposition for you. He managed the O's to 101 wins. You just have your theories.

Bradish, GRod, Means and Wells looks like good starters for the playoffs if managed correctly.   If you think Bradish and GRod are not improving that is not a good bet.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

You know you are talking about Elias here:  (You would have to be an incredibly naive person and one who doesn’t understand not pays attention to stats to believe “we are good”. There is no intelligent thought behind that, especially when you start talking about the playoffs.)

Your strategic thinking vs Elias strategic thinking is not really a good proposition for you. He managed the O's to 101 wins. You just have your theories.

Bradish, GRod, Means and Wells looks like good starters for the playoffs if managed correctly.   If you think Bradish and GRod are not improving that is not a good bet.

I don’t think Elias is actually as naive as you. I don’t think Elias is a glorified cheerleader like you are.

I just think he’s being patient.  I refuse to believe he’s believes in the same idiotic things you do.

Elias has said he is talking about a lot of high level pitchers. He’s not stupid, he knows he is going to have to give up some of his better prospects to get those players.  He wouldn’t be engaged on these guys if that wasn’t the case.

Edited January 26 by Sports Guy

[24fps]

43 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am on the side of trying to improve (within reason) but I also get it. Now that we have a good team we have more incentive to win, but we also have fewer needs, and to upgrade is going to cost more. The guys at the bottom of the rotation are Kremer, Irvin, and Wells. They are all cheap, credible MLB level pitchers. Then in the bullpen you have Webb, Tate, and Baumann. Again, cheap, credible pitchers. To upgrade those positions you need not just a good player but a plus-plus player to really move the needle. Those guys cost dollars we don't have and prospects we don't want to part with. I wouldn't say I want to stay put, but I don't want to trade any of our top three prospects for a guy who has maybe 20% chance of underperforming Kremer. And I don't want to trade Ortiz or Kjerstad or a guy who isn't a needle mover.

I believe we could get Cease right now if we were willing to part with Holliday.

I expect the O's could get considerably better than Cease if they were willing to part with Holliday.  If there are teams that are unwilling to consider any discussion that doesn't include Holliday, Basallo or Mayo then Elias needs to move on to other options.  Personally I think that time should be very soon because I think he has enough budget left to add a guy like Lorenzen if necessary and as solid a fit as Cease is, he's not so good that Elias has to put himself at a disadvantage by waiting too long.

[Aristotelian]

31 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I expect the O's could get considerably better than Cease if they were willing to part with Holliday.  If there are teams that are unwilling to consider any discussion that doesn't include Holliday, Basallo or Mayo then Elias needs to move on to other options.  Personally I think that time should be very soon because I think he has enough budget left to add a guy like Lorenzen if necessary and as solid a fit as Cease is, he's not so good that Elias has to put himself at a disadvantage by waiting too long.

Lorenzen's 4.18 ERA last year was worse than Kremer and Wells and only slightly better than Irvin. 4.24 in '22 and 5.59 in '21. I don't understand why we would sign him or how he  would be considered an upgrade. Sure, we have the budget to sign him, but why we would spend the money on him? 

[jabba72]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Lorenzen's 4.18 ERA last year was worse than Kremer and Wells and only slightly better than Irvin. 4.24 in '22 and 5.59 in '21. I don't understand why we would sign him or how he  would be considered an upgrade. Sure, we have the budget to sign him, but why we would spend the money on him? 

My guess is for the same reasons they signed Gibson last year. More SP depth. Gibson did win 15 games.