Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Spring Training should show if he’s ready, which I have no doubt that he is. People keep talking about him being ready, but what does he really need to do to prove that? Is there a hole in his swing/approach that someone sees? The only thing I can think of is his home run numbers, but he was 19 and I expect him to add more strength. However, if he never adds that plus power tool but he retains his plus plus hit tool, that is still VERY special. Especially from a middle infielder. How man players in the sport have a plus plus hit tool? 

Retaining the extra year matters to a great degree IF you are never planing on extending him/signing him long term. In addition, you get the pick if he wins rookie of the year or finishes top 2. 

Lastly, this is the year with Burnes and Adley’s last pre-arb year. I don’t think we can continue to afford to punt on maximizing our chances any longer.

If I was Elias I'd have him starting OD, pending him looking good in spring of course.  Again, there is more to it than him just being ready.  I don't like it, but it IS part of the game, money and service time considerations.  He's a special talent and, I believe, would be an immediate upgrade over the likes of Mateo and Urias.  I'm not questioning his ability or talent.  But until Elias SHOWS that his handling of the team is SOLELY based on wins and not on future considerations, then I'm still of the mindset he is going to take years of control etc into consideration, and therefore some decisions will be impacted by those issues.  Holiday being the most obvious one currently.  Until he proves me wrong, that's what I expect to see, and not what I'd personally do.  

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

If I was Elias I'd have him starting OD, pending him looking good in spring of course.  Again, there is more to it than him just being ready.  I don't like it, but it IS part of the game, money and service time considerations.  He's a special talent and, I believe, would be an immediate upgrade over the likes of Mateo and Urias.  I'm not questioning his ability or talent.  But until Elias SHOWS that his handling of the team is SOLELY based on wins and not on future considerations, then I'm still of the mindset he is going to take years of control etc into consideration, and therefore some decisions will be impacted by those issues.  Holiday being the most obvious one currently.  Until he proves me wrong, that's what I expect to see, and not what I'd personally do.  

Gunnar got a taste in 2022 and OD 2023.  He wasn’t slow rolled or manipulated.  Adley had an injury, so depends on how you view that…. Point is that there’s no clear pattern for top end talent as a guide.  Especially given the NPV of wins and playoff odds.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Of course you never know.  Point is some are saying without question he IS ready.  They don't know that for sure, of course.  I feel that he IS ready myself.  But at the same time I recognize that with the SSS against AAA pitching, the argument can be easily made by Elias to keep him down to get more 'seasoning' be it a few weeks, a couple months, or 2/3rd of the year, depending.  I'd have him starting OD.  But I'd also have had Westburg/Ortiz playing last year over Frazier, and many other such moves.  I know we are in a different stage of our franchise history, i.e. playing to win now, but at the same time until I see them being that aggressive with Holiday being promoted to the MLB team, I expect to see a Gunnar like treatment.  

There were things that Gunnar needed to work on. His OPS against LH pitching at AAA. Staying back on offspeed pitches. His clock while playing SS, not getting too hurried. 

I don’t see any of those things being a concern for Holliday, who is even younger than Gunnar was. It’s probably why Holliday was picked at 1:1 and Gunnar not until the 30’s.

We could play the service time game. But my hope is that with the ownership change, we have moved into a different class/caliber of organization.

Holding him down would be a very Orioles thing to do. My hope is with the stench of the Angelos awfulness gone, we have moved beyond these type of things which IMO are rooted in cheapness not competitiveness. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Gunnar got a taste in 2022 and OD 2023.  He wasn’t slow rolled or manipulated.  Adley had an injury, so depends on how you view that…. Point is that there’s no clear pattern for top end talent as a guide.  Especially given the NPV of wins and playoff odds.

Aldey should have been up to "get a taste" in 2021.

[Billy F-Face3]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I heard this rationale in the board several times regarding Holliday "not being ready". Is there something I am missing? Has a hole/weakness been identify that I haven't seen or become aware of? 

I have heard several posters compare the treatment of Henderson in '22 vs the handling of Holliday in '24. However, I think there are a few fundamental differences to consider. 1) We did not have legit World Series aspirations in '22. It can be argued that we really weren't trying to win/compete with the midseason selloff. 2) Henderson despite how wonderful of a talent/prospect that he was, had a few concerns/weaknesses - hitting off speed pitches & hitting LHP. I haven't seen that at all with Holliday. 3) Holliday unlike even Henderson & Rutschman jumped FOUR LEVELS IN ONE SEASON. How many prospects in the last 30 years have done that not just with the O's (never) but in the entire sport? He is not like everybody else.

What would be the legit reason to keep him in the Minor Leagues for the likes of Mateo/Urias? Didn't we waste a year of Westburg's development last season with the likes of Frazier/Urias?

 

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

defense.

This. And getting more experience against quality LHP. 

We all witnessed how long it took for Gunnar to adjust in 2023 vs LHP.  There's 2 ways to go about it. Either keep Holliday in AAA for safety and get his experience there, or let him take his lumps in the Big League to start his career until he adjusts.  The latter is very risky because it can rattle a player's confidence and cost the team wins.

[RZNJ]

Burnes is here for one year.  That was a now move.   Maybe they hold down Holliday a month but if he has a strong spring and rakes at Norfolk he’s coming up.   He might make the team out of ST.   I’ll be shocked if he’s at Norfolk at the all-star break.   He’s not your typical prospect and he’s not Gunnar.  He’s going to get the Holliday treatment.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

 

This. And getting more experience against quality LHP. 

We all witnessed how long it took for Gunnar to adjust in 2023 vs LHP.  There's 2 ways to go about it. Either keep Holliday in AAA for safety and get his experience there, or let him take his lumps in the Big League to start his career until he adjusts.  The latter is very risky because it can rattle a player's confidence and cost the team wins.

Fill in the blank:

The Orioles might lose games that they should win if Jackson Holliday starts over _________________.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

 

This. And getting more experience against quality LHP. 

We all witnessed how long it took for Gunnar to adjust in 2023 vs LHP.  There's 2 ways to go about it. Either keep Holliday in AAA for safety and get his experience there, or let him take his lumps in the Big League to start his career until he adjusts.  The latter is very risky because it can rattle a player's confidence and cost the team wins.

What safety?

I've lived in Norfolk it's not safer than Baltimore.

You don't need to be in the minors to work on defense.

 

 

Do you honestly think that Jackson Holliday is going to get rattled if he struggles a bit?  Is that an actual concern for you?

How is that for sure not going to happen if he spends time in AAA and then struggles?

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Fill in the blank:

The Orioles might lose games that they should win if Jackson Holliday starts over _________________.

Adley Rutschman.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

 

This. And getting more experience against quality LHP. 

We all witnessed how long it took for Gunnar to adjust in 2023 vs LHP.  There's 2 ways to go about it. Either keep Holliday in AAA for safety and get his experience there, or let him take his lumps in the Big League to start his career until he adjusts.  The latter is very risky because it can rattle a player's confidence and cost the team wins.

What legit concerns do you have for Holliday hitting LHP? Has he shown you ANYTHING that says that he can’t or even needs to work on that? 

That was a legit concerns for Gunnar. But to compare the two is a mistake IMO. They are not the same as players in that what applies to one does not apply to the other just because they are young superstar potential LHH infielders. 

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Burnes is here for one year.  That was a now move.   Maybe they hold down Holliday a month but if he has a strong spring and rakes at Norfolk he’s coming up.   He might make the team out of ST.   I’ll be shocked if he’s at Norfolk at the all-star break.   He’s not your typical prospect and he’s not Gunnar.  He’s going to get the Holliday treatment.

Totally agree!

[CaptainRedbeard]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t have doubt that he could be here now but yea, I’m taking another year away if I can.  Now, I would try to get him signed to a 9-10 year deal and just have him up immediately but without that, you absolutely get the extra year, especially with a boras client.

 

How much better do you think Holliday is than Urias/Mateo on Opening Day?

I think Holliday is probably something like a 3 WAR player right now. Urias/Mateo are like 2 WAR. So by leaving Holliday down in AAA, you’re giving up ~1 WAR over the course of the full season. 

If you think Holliday is a 3 WAR player but want the extra year, you probably shouldn’t send him down for just the minimum 3 weeks because there’s a decent chance he’ll win ROY and you lose the extra year anyway (in addition to maybe transparently pissing off Holliday/Boras with service time manipulation). Plus, if you call him up before Super 2, that extra year is a 4th trip through arb, which diminishes the value.

So if you need to leave Holliday down until midseason to make sure he’s out of ROY contention, and he’s about 1 WAR better than Urias, you’re costing ~0.5 WAR to do that, or about $5M surplus value if you want to put a $ value on it. 

What’s the discount rate on 0.5 WAR / $5M in 2024 vs. the extra year of control on Holliday in 7 years?

Just considering service time, if you put a premium on 2024 wins and you think Holliday is that much better than Urias then there’s still a good argument to have him go on Opening Day. It’s not a slam dunk either way, it’s arguable. And the ROY pick may slightly tip the scales towards having him up Opening Day. 

That said, if the Orioles don’t think he’s ready for legitimate, non-service time reasons, then he’s probably not that much better than Urias and it’s an easy call to send him down. But I think, and I think the Orioles think, that Holliday’s going to show up to Spring Training and demonstrate he’s ready right now. 

I thought Ortiz was better than Urias by enough of a margin, in addition to it being valuable to get Ortiz MLB playing time, that the equation was clear he should be starting Opening Day instead of Holliday. But now that Ortiz is gone I think it’s going to be Holliday. 

[btdart20]

 

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You NEVER KNOW.

You just don't.

My argument is simple, can they learn what they need to learn in the majors?

Do they improve the team?

 

What are playoff odds with Jackson on the OD roster?  What are odds without him?  Is it discernibly different?  FWIW, I don’t think it matters that much.  

If it doesn’t matter, then is the dice role of an extra year of control worth it?  ROY, relationship, payroll, trade value… quite a few variables.  Least of which is the HOF.  The new rules at least make you pause the clock games.  Which is legit for low/mid-payroll teams.  Even LAD has played the game if we’re counting Daddy Morebucks.

[btdart20]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Aldey should have been up to "get a taste" in 2021.

That’s fair but also part of my point.  And also before the present value of wins.

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Totally agree!

Am I missing something?  He’s open for both options.  You’re heavily invest in Holliday on the OD.