Corbin Burnes quote re: extension vs free agency

[Spy Fox]

10 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Burnes isnt saying that, mlbtr is speculating 200-250m, which is probably too low if Burnes has a typical season. If he pitches to a 4.50 ERA, then maybe 175-200m.

A 4.50 would be a bad departure from his career norms. If that happens, I think it'd depress his market further than that and he might actually take a QO to try again at the megadeal.

[UMDTerrapins]

Wouldn’t it be nice if one of McDermott, Povich, Johnson, Baumler emerges as a plus ML starter for us! 
I agree a Burnes extension is seriously unlikely. What’s the group think on a Means extension? Yes he’s 31 this season, but he could be a good value signing and he’s got low mileage on his arm. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, UMDTerrapins said:

Wouldn’t it be nice if one of McDermott, Povich, Johnson, Baumler emerges as a plus ML starter for us! 
I agree a Burnes extension is seriously unlikely. What’s the group think on a Means extension? Yes he’s 31 this season, but he could be a good value signing and he’s got low mileage on his arm. 

He has to show a lot before extending him and it depends on what he would want and, more importantly, for how long.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Since Burnes is from Bakersfield, California, went to college in the Bay Area, and has spent his whole career so far in Milwaukee I'm going to assume he loves crabs, Old Bay, the Ravens, the National Aquarium, and is pressing hard for Boras to wrap up an exceptionally team-friendly extension with the O's right now.

He did go to college with Tony Gonsolin, and Tony Gonsolin and Dean Kremer are about the same ballplayer.

Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish seem like pals.      Corbin Burnes seems like Kyle Bradish producing those results for 5 years, not 1.

You really can't put a dollar value amount on the opportunity to spend more than 1 year hanging out with Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Matt Bennett said:

Uhhhh yes. I am expecting and assuming our new owner will increase payroll significantly, considering he is significantly wealthier than our previous owner and has extremely wealthy partners. Peter Angelos had us up to $164M. If Rubenstein can't spend significantly more than John Angelos...I'm not sure what the 99.99% of Orioles fans who were rejoicing are celebrating. John Angelos hired the right person. He just wouldn't allow spending. Now we can spend. If we don't, I'm sure I will come to despise Rubenstein for being more of a cheapass than Angelos. 

Again, you brought up the Astros. I guess "the culture" Elias inherited from them discontinued after Elias left? 

Yes, I'm operating under the assumption that Elias has been handcuffed. If he PREFERRED to sign 1 year of Kyle Gibson over 2 years of Nathan Eovaldi, 3 years of Chris Bassit, 3 years of Zach Eflin....I am disturbed. 

I agree that it's likely the Orioles increase overall payroll. I just don't think it means they are suddenly breaking the bank for the very top of the starting pitching market, or that Elias wants to do that. And I just don't think the Burnes trade is evidence of that financial shift just yet because it's only adding a 1/$15 contract to this year, and Elias has surely been working on this trade long before Rubenstein was official. 

The culture I referred to from Elias' days in the Astros organization was more about his drafting and development culture, analytics, and finding the right time to pull the trigger on a trade for a TOR SP. The Astros have more spending power than that Orioles have and that allows them to occassionally spend on guys, but that's been more about Crane than it has been about Lunhow or Elias. 

Anyway, let's agree to disagree and move on. I'm just as excited about Rubenstein and Burnes as you are, the only difference is I'm taking a more wait-and-see approach to everything. If our payroll is going to increase somewhat, I can think of many better ways to spend it than blowing it all on a SP in his age 30-37 years. 

Edited February 2 by interloper

[Just Regular]

24 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Wouldn’t it be nice if one of McDermott, Povich, Johnson, Baumler emerges as a plus ML starter for us! 
I agree a Burnes extension is seriously unlikely. What’s the group think on a Means extension? Yes he’s 31 this season, but he could be a good value signing and he’s got low mileage on his arm. 

Will his performance be watery enough he'll consider a 1-year deal?

[Matt Bennett]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

I can think of many better ways to spend it than blowing it all on a SP in his age 30-37 years. 

1. Not all. We should eventually be adding much more than $30M a year than Burnes would take. Again, Peter Angelos had us up to $164M in 2017! We are at $95M in 2024!!!!

2. Not blowing it. Spending it on elite talent for a championship. The Nats invested in their starting rotation. Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin. There's been wasted money in there. Who cares. They have a banner that will fly forever. 

Agree to disagree. Can't wait for the season.

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Since Burnes is from Bakersfield, California, went to college in the Bay Area, and has spent his whole career so far in Milwaukee I'm going to assume he loves crabs, Old Bay, the Ravens, the National Aquarium, and is pressing hard for Boras to wrap up an exceptionally team-friendly extension with the O's right now.

He is actually a really big deal at St. Mary's College where he went to school. They are retiring his number and he is in their Hall of Fame, just so you know!

https://smcgaels.com/news/2024/1/25/baseball-base-teahen-burnes-to-have-numbers-retired.aspx

 

[Morgan423]

Didn't read the whole thread, but I can't be the only one who doesn't want a Burnes extension whatsoever at what he's likely to be asking for, right? 

With the way others seem to be valuing our prospects, I'd rather keep the minors overloaded on more prospects that we have room for and just keep doing this on a regular basis as needed for a while. 

Instead of spending $40M+ per season on one pitcher, let's extend our established pool of young players for their best years on the run that we're about to have.  That's where the money should go. 

Edited February 2 by Morgan423

[DrungoHazewood]

26 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

He is actually a really big deal at St. Mary's College where he went to school. They are retiring his number and he is in their Hall of Fame, just so you know!

https://smcgaels.com/news/2024/1/25/baseball-base-teahen-burnes-to-have-numbers-retired.aspx

 

But it's the wrong St. Mary's College!

St. Mary's of California

St. Mary's of Maryland

[Just Regular]

Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes in 2024 are basically trying to outdo Carlos Rodon climbing Mount Gerrit Cole.

Both guys would like to be better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Manny Machado is better than Chris Davis kind of ways, lead their team past his team during the tournament, and see what's what with the MLB Clubs.

[Jim'sKid26]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But it's the wrong St. Mary's College!

St. Mary's of California

St. Mary's of Maryland

By who's estimation? Moraga is a nice town. 

[oriole]

3 hours ago, Morgan423 said:

Didn't read the whole thread, but I can't be the only one who doesn't want a Burnes extension whatsoever at what he's likely to be asking for, right? 

With the way others seem to be valuing our prospects, I'd rather keep the minors overloaded on more prospects that we have room for and just keep doing this on a regular basis as needed for a while. 

Instead of spending $40M+ per season on one pitcher, let's extend our established pool of young players for their best years on the run that we're about to have.  That's where the money should go. 

I’m with you on this notion. Burnes is gonna end up with one of those “what the f” contracts. I’d rather the payroll look more balanced than lopsided with one super overpaid player alongside everyone else. 
 

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, interloper said:

Correct. Angelos thinks we are small market, but we all know it's closer to mid-market. That doesn't mean Rubenstein will spend mid-market. We just don't know! And it's debatable if a large chunk of that should be spent on Burnes. Has anything about Elias told you that going toe to toe with large market teams for the services of one SP in his 30s is how he wants to do business?

How would we know? He’s under control of an owner that has been withdrawing money in gobs the last 4-5 years. I’ve said somewhere around half a billion dollars over that period.

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If you could get him for 4/120-140, sure…but you can’t. It’s not realistic to think he would sign for 4 or even 5 and probably not even 6 years right now.

Combine that with the fact that he is already seeing some decline in his stats And I’m not sure why you would even want an extension.

 

Maybe he makes the transition from a power guy to a finesse guy rather seamlessly. I doubt it but you never know. 
 

I’d do 4/120 but I know he wouldn’t go for that.