Elias' mental shift

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The Dodgers use their prospects as currency. They trade the ones they feel are expendable And promote the ones that are good. As it stands, the Dodgers frequently have a ROY candidate on their team.  That’s what the Os can be And what they should be. That’s exactly how you handle a farm system.

Right. The system full of prospects are nothing more than commodities to be used now to improve your major league team's chances of winning a World Series each year. 

Elias still has some backed up players with Cowser, Kjerstad and Norby having no clear everyday job in the big leagues though I do expect that Kjerstad will replace O'Hearn at DH and play some RF this year.

The key will be for how Elias uses his commodities to upgrade his roster. 

Interestingly, he's only traded two of his draft picks (Hernaiz and Ortiz) for pitching help so far. I'm a little surprised he didn't trade for a young shutdown reliever because even though the bullpen looks good, without Bautista I'd like to have another young stud out there, especially now that he moved Hall. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Right. The system full of prospects are nothing more than commodities to be used now to improve your major league team's chances of winning a World Series each year. 

Elias still has some backed up players with Cowser, Kjerstad and Norby having no clear everyday job in the big leagues though I do expect that Kjerstad will replace O'Hearn at DH and play some RF this year.

The key will be for how Elias uses his commodities to upgrade his roster. 

Interestingly, he's only traded two of his draft picks (Hernaiz and Ortiz) for pitching help so far. I'm a little surprised he didn't trade for a young shutdown reliever because even though the bullpen looks good, without Bautista I'd like to have another young stud out there, especially now that he moved Hall. 

He talked yesterday about how he’s happy with the team as is and really, that’s what he publicly should be saying and maybe he will just go with what they have, see how things play out and get a reliever during the season but I have to believe he is still trying to get a real reliever..not Brasier but a true high leverage power arm. 
 

I’d have up to Cowser or Kjerstad on the table for one depending on the player, service time, etc…but either way, we should have enough to trade for one. Best case scenario is that we can use some of our “excess vets” to get a reliever, aka the Teoscar Hernandez deal last year or something along those lines.

[btdart20]

“Liftoff” was the mental shift.  That’s when the hunting began.  Maybe you’re onto something in that the focus isn’t about raising the floor but about raising the ceiling.  But the investment world would look at the decision making as two sides of the same coin.

LAD builds depth thru FA that we just don’t have the revenue to support unless Rubenstein runs the show at a loss.  

Elias has said to expect “buy” and “sell” trades.  And the anchor is “perennial contender”, so youth will always be in sight of any trade.  

Trading Ortiz and Hall is part of the selection process.  Our biggest need at the ML level is in the rotation.  Elias matched the need with the tools in the best way conceivable.  LAD had similar goals with the Busch and Pepiot deals.  

I don’t completely get the focus on the players’ careers and treating them fairly from a management perspective.  I get the maximizing org value angle in trading them.  Trading them or promoting them to be nice isn’t reality beyond sentimentality.

I’m interested in the draft focus moving forward.  Hitter heavy has been successful.  And now we’ve got a check in the trade the prospect resume.

 

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Right. The system full of prospects are nothing more than commodities to be used now to improve your major league team's chances of winning a World Series each year. 

Elias still has some backed up players with Cowser, Kjerstad and Norby having no clear everyday job in the big leagues though I do expect that Kjerstad will replace O'Hearn at DH and play some RF this year.

The key will be for how Elias uses his commodities to upgrade his roster. 

Interestingly, he's only traded two of his draft picks (Hernaiz and Ortiz) for pitching help so far. I'm a little surprised he didn't trade for a young shutdown reliever because even though the bullpen looks good, without Bautista I'd like to have another young stud out there, especially now that he moved Hall. 

I think there is a pretty clear path to regular positions for Cowser and Kjerstad in 2025.

[24fps]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

To me the trade for Corbin Burnes represents a mentality shift for Elias.   Since 2018 when he was hired he has been all about collecting high ceiling talent.  And he guarded that talent consistently.  Not trading it.  Taking every opportunity to add to the young talent.

But with the Burnes trade it feels to me like Elias has shifted to "How do I win a World Series".   He just traded  12 years of young talent control for one year of a veteran ace.   That is counter to what he has done up to this point.

I have no doubt that Elias worked on the Burnes trade for three months just like he says. But I am sure there have been other trades he as worked on that he didn't pull the trigger on because he was guarding the young talent.   The Cease trade is a example.   Just couldn't give up that talent.   And I am sure there have been others in the recent years. 

It was a big decision to trade DL Hall.  1st rounder with great stuff and a big future.   Some may think of him as a reliever but in my mind that is because he is a late developer because of injuries.   Given the chance, coaching, and health he still has a huge up side of being a starter with wipe out stuff.  6 years of that talent just walked out the door.  Talent that Elias has guarded up until now. 

Same with Ortiz but he was kinda blocked.   But he should have been in ST and made the O's opening day roster.  Best SS in the organization.  He is probably more ready than Holliday at this point.   6 more years of control of a talented player walked.

This a real mental shift for Elias.  Its really go for it for one big World Series year.  Focus on one year instead of the focus on the next six years.  Sure the O's have other talent that allows this shift.  But make no mistake this is the first real example of trading young talent for short term improvement.

In other words he’s shifted his strategy to accommodate improvement in the team.  Why does this require a convoluted narrative full of assumptions about ‘mentality’? 

[sportsfan8703]

The mental shift factors into extension talks too. Like what to do with Mullins. Would Mullins let us buy out 1-2 of his FA years for some guaranteed money. Something like a 3/36 deal right now. Mullins only gives up 1 year for some cheddar right now. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The mental shift factors into extension talks too. Like what to do with Mullins. Would Mullins let us buy out 1-2 of his FA years for some guaranteed money. Something like a 3/36 deal right now. Mullins only gives up 1 year for some cheddar right now. 

Why would we do that?  You have Mullins for the next 2 years if you want and they just drafted Bradfield, so the idea of extending Mullins is not likely in the cards and really, it doesn’t make much sense.

[Frobby]

Elias was asked pretty much this exact question in his presser and flatly denied any change in his mindset.  He said everything he’s done the last 5 years has been for the purpose of improving the Orioles’ chances to win a World Series.   He said this move improves the team’s chances to win a World Series, and he still has a very healthy farm system, so he’s not sacrificing the future in order to improve the team now.   And he’s right.  

Obviously there’s a balance to acquiring short term assets to win now while preserving long term assets to continue winning in the future.  That equation is different at different times depending on the strength of the major league team and the farm system and the spots where there team does or doesn’t have depth.   Right now, we have a ton of long term assets banked, and an major league team that is capable of a deep playoff run, so Elias can afford to cash in some long term assets to improve the team’s chances right now.  
 

 

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would we do that?  You have Mullins for the next 2 years if you want and they just drafted Bradfield, so the idea of extending Mullins is not likely in the cards and really, it doesn’t make much sense.

Because the outlook of our org has changed. Going along with the theme of the OP. We’d be spending money on CF, a premium position where really all we have is Fabian and EBJ. We’d be looking at trading Mullins next offseason, thus only giving EBJ one full year in the minors. Why rush a guy with a questionable bat?

We don’t have to try and win with a “poor” mentality anymore. It’s not too big of a luxury for us to try and buy one year at a premium position. It would be risk mitigation for us and Mullins. Mullins wasn’t a high draft pick so bonus there. He made 4 million as a super 2 last year and is set to make 6 million this year. He’s going to enter OD at 29.5 yo and has only made like 6-7 million in his whole career before taxes. Factor in that 2020 was only 1/3rd of the normal salary as well. So no salary bonus during his whole milb career to live off. Then factor in the missed wages from 2020. He might be the type of player to say I’ll mitigate some long term risk to get paid a little more in the short term. 

Elias couldn’t have considered this pre sale. 

Edited February 3 by sportsfan8703

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think there is a pretty clear path to regular positions for Cowser and Kjerstad in 2025.

We're discussing 2024 though. Just because a player is "backed up" doesn't mean you trade him away for nothing. But they are two major league ready players that don't have clear everyday roles in 2024. 

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Because the outlook of our org has changed. Going along with the theme of the OP. We’d be spending money on CF, a premium position where really all we have is Fabian and EBJ. We’d be looking at trading Mullins next offseason, thus only giving EBJ one full year in the minors. Why rush a guy with a questionable bat?

We don’t have to try and win with a “poor” mentality anymore. It’s not too big of a luxury for us to try and buy one year at a premium position. It would be risk mitigation for us and Mullins. Mullins wasn’t a high draft pick so bonus there. He made 4 million as a super 2 last year and is set to make 6 million this year. He’s going to enter OD at 29.5 yo and has only made like 6-7 million in his whole career before taxes. Factor in that 2020 was only 1/3rd of the normal salary as well. So no salary bonus during his whole milb career to live off. Then factor in the missed wages from 2020. He might be the type of player to say I’ll mitigate some long term risk to get paid a little more in the short term. 

Elias couldn’t have considered this pre sale. 

But why would you even want to pay and keep Mullins past age 30?  And why would he sign a 1-2 year extension?  Thats not a very favorable deal for him either.

[CaptainRedbeard]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

We're discussing 2024 though. Just because a player is "backed up" doesn't mean you trade him away for nothing. But they are two major league ready players that don't have clear everyday roles in 2024. 

We don’t really know what Elias’ appetite for trading Cowser/Kjerstad is, because they were likely never on the table for Burnes - not because of value but because the Brewers have a lot of OF prospects. 

But I do think Elias views those two much differently than Joey Ortiz, for example. Ortiz never had a future as a starter given they preferred Westburg over him. Cowser and Kjerstad do. They are potentially expendable in terms of the 2024 team but both (1) could very well ultimately contribute to the 2024 team as starters by surpassing O’Hearn and (2) will definitely have starter opportunities after Santander and O’Hearn are gone.

I think Elias could have been open to trading Cowser/Kjerstad for Cease, for instance, but there’s much more of a “compromising the future” element with them than there was with dealing Ortiz or Hall. I don’t think those two are viewed as assets to be used for supplementing the 2024 team in the same way - they’re more in the first bucket of “keep the best prospects (that you have space to play), trade the rest.”

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

We're discussing 2024 though. Just because a player is "backed up" doesn't mean you trade him away for nothing. But they are two major league ready players that don't have clear everyday roles in 2024. 

The O's have two early 1st round draft choices in Cowser and Kjerstad that can fill spots in the outfield in 2025.   The O's are not going to have those early round draft choices for quite some time.   So they probably want to hang out to them.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I agree that this is the first offseason Elias has had a good reason to deal from his high-end talent surpluses.

I think the main reason we don't have Cease isn't because Elias is "hoarding talent" but because the White Sox's demands were ridiculous.

People are dreaming if they think D.L. Hall has more than like a 5% chance to be a good MLB starter. The command isn't there and he'll struggle to get you five innings most days. Sure, maybe the O's couldn't unlock him and the Brewers can, but Hall has been around for, what, six years now? He also hasn't been durable and I think his max IP for a season is 89. He's a reliever, and quite likely a darn good one and that's fine.

Yep …he’s dreaming on Hall. A high leverage reliever on needing a couple of pitches is where he belongs.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Elias was asked pretty much this exact question in his presser and flatly denied any change in his mindset.  He said everything he’s done the last 5 years has been for the purpose of improving the Orioles’ chances to win a World Series.   He said this move improves the team’s chances to win a World Series, and he still has a very healthy farm system, so he’s not sacrificing the future in order to improve the team now.   And he’s right.  

Obviously there’s a balance to acquiring short term assets to win now while preserving long term assets to continue winning in the future.  That equation is different at different times depending on the strength of the major league team and the farm system and the spots where there team does or doesn’t have depth.   Right now, we have a ton of long term assets banked, and an major league team that is capable of a deep playoff run, so Elias can afford to cash in some long term assets to improve the team’s chances right now.  
 

 

This is the first year in Elias 5 years with the O's that he has traded high value prospects for a veteran.   That is a mental shift IMO.  And notable.  That is my I posted it.