Service time games, 2024

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s extremely unlikely that Basallo is going to rush through full season ball in two years and be ready to be more of an impact bat than the many more experienced options that they have.  The only way I see him getting major league time is if he makes very good progress with both the bat and the glove, and either Rutschman or McCann goes down with an injury.  I’m not holding my breath for that to happen.  

It’s definitely very possible Basallo will be MLB ready with the bat by mid August or September 1. Gunnar reached AA ball at the end of his age 20 season and was in the majors by that time the end of the next season. Holliday reached AAA by the end of his age 19 season and is (maybe) ready Opening Day of his age 20 season. Basallo reached AA by the end of his age 18 season and could be in AAA by the middle of his age 19 season the same time Gunnar was when he was 20, and earlier than Holliday was when he was 19.

Basallo’s defense and the roster space are the big question marks. I think there’s almost no way they decide he’s defensively ready to be the sole backup C in 2024, and they’re not going to DFA McCann midseason. And even if he’s ready to handle big league pitching, we have so much depth we’re not really going to need his bat at 1B/DH. So it only makes sense if we have space to carry him as a 3rd C / extra bat, and they think he’ll be on the 2025 Opening Day roster regardless.

[dystopia]

12 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

It’s probably lower than that with all of the competition next year. But if he looks good in spring training, I’d rather just put him on the opening day roster and at least give him the chance of earning us the draft pick, as opposed to leaving him down for two weeks to try to game service time and possibly have him win ROY so we end up losing the year anyway and not getting a draft pick. Either that, or you hold him down long enough that he has no chance of being in the running for ROY. But then you end up holding him down for half the year when he could have been helping us win games. Right now, I think the ideal scenario is to see Holliday on the opening day roster. 

Wait, so if he wins ROY then we lose the draft pick AND the extra year if he’s promoted April 12? I thought it was just the pick. If that’s the case then I’d put him on the OD roster also. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

Wait, so if he wins ROY then we lose the draft pick AND the extra year if he’s promoted April 12? I thought it was just the pick. If that’s the case then I’d put him on the OD roster also. 

Yes, both.  And he doesn’t need to win ROY, just finish in the top 2, like Adley did. 

Like I’ve said 100 times this offseason, just make the decision on the merits after watching Holliday and his competition this spring.  
 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, both.  And he doesn’t need to win ROY, just finish in the top 2, like Adley did. 

Like I’ve said 100 times this offseason, just make the decision on the merits after watching Holliday and his competition this spring.  
 

Yeah, I think it's that simple. Good spring and he's on the team, bad spring and he's in AAA. Don't think Elias is really considering much more than that when it comes to Holliday. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah, I think it's that simple. Good spring and he's on the team, bad spring and he's in AAA. Don't think Elias is really considering much more than that when it comes to Holliday. 

Right, and “good” and “bad” is not just judged on baseball card stats, but all the information that the O’s organization brings to bear every day.   

[RarityFlaherty]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, both.  And he doesn’t need to win ROY, just finish in the top 2, like Adley did. 

Like I’ve said 100 times this offseason, just make the decision on the merits after watching Holliday and his competition this spring.  
 

Definitely agree with you there. If he looks good, it would be an easy decision to me to put him on the opening day roster. But, if he doesn’t look good in spring training, then it makes the decision on what to do with him a little harder. Do you put him on the opening day roster anyway? Do you hold him down two weeks and hope he doesn’t make a run at ROY? Do you hold him down until the safe dates to keep the extra year? That’s when maybe you start to think about playing service time games and bring up someone else for a few weeks until you get to one of the dates you posted. But, that also all depends on if you have someone else who can fill in until that date. 

And now that I go back to it, this is basically what you said in your original post, so sorry for rehashing the same idea. 

[sportsfan8703]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, both.  And he doesn’t need to win ROY, just finish in the top 2, like Adley did. 

Like I’ve said 100 times this offseason, just make the decision on the merits after watching Holliday and his competition this spring.  
 

Holliday is favored to win ROY.  After Holliday, and Carter, it's a pretty weak class.  We'd have to hold Holliday down into June.  Look at this,

AL ROY Odds to win (Draftkings)

Holliday +250

Carter +300

Langford +600

Schanuel +750

Caminero +800

Meadows +900

Keith +1,000

Edited February 5 by sportsfan8703

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Definitely agree with you there. If he looks good, it would be an easy decision to me to put him on the opening day roster. But, if he doesn’t look good in spring training, then it makes the decision on what to do with him a little harder. Do you put him on the opening day roster anyway? Do you hold him down two weeks and hope he doesn’t make a run at ROY? Do you hold him down until the safe dates to keep the extra year? That’s when maybe you start to think about playing service time games and bring up someone else for a few weeks until you get to one of the dates you posted. But, that also all depends on if you have someone else who can fill in until that date. 

And now that I go back to it, this is basically what you said in your original post, so sorry for rehashing the same idea. 

No problem.  There’s no reason we can’t get by with Gunnar, Westburg, Urias and Mateo until Holliday is ready.  Mayo is also in this equation somewhere.  Who’s to say he won’t be the guy who blows everyone away this spring, moreso than Holliday?   He had a better OPS at both Bowie and Norfolk than Holliday did, and is more experienced.   He was coming on like a house on fire the final 6 weeks of the year.   

[Sports Guy]

58 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I’d value the pick over the extra year of service time. What chance do we give him of winning ROY? 25% 30%?

So if you knew we could get a pick in the 33-45 range, you would take that pick over an extra full season of an MVp caliber guy?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Holliday is favored to win ROY.  After Holliday, and Carter, it's a pretty weak class.  We'd have to hold Holliday down into June.  Look at this,

AL ROY Odds to win (Draftkings)

Holliday +250

Carter +300

Langford +600

Schanuel +750

Caminero +800

Meadows +900

Keith +1,000

In the MLB executives’ poll, 36% voted for Carter, 30% for Holliday.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So if you knew we could get a pick in the 33-45 range, you would take that pick over an extra full season of an MVp caliber guy?

You clearly would not, as the Burnes trade illustrates.  We gave up the 34th pick for one year of a potential CY candidate, and sent two good young players as well.  

[Orioles West]

I used to be more concerned about exacting service time. And it's still great info to have -- but with the potential new ownership group presumably becoming official sometime this season, I'm more at ease with whatever Elias decides.

In general, I think a player should be on the roster if he is one of our best 25.

While we aren't sure the new ownership will spend more, there is at least a chance the Orioles can keep the home grown talent at home. Just by the way JA talked about it last year, there was no chance to keep or extend our talented base of players.

[sportsfan8703]

I don't think a draft pick in the 33-45 range will be what puts O's ownership over the edge on handing out a $200 million extension.  

[dystopia]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So if you knew we could get a pick in the 33-45 range, you would take that pick over an extra full season of an MVp caliber guy?

If Angelos was still the owner I’d take the extra year, but since extensions are on the table now, I think I’d take the pick. 
 

That’s IF he turns into an MVP-type player. 

[UMDTerrapins]

Just throwing this out there since I was curious enough to group the projected classes. 

 

Current Free Agent Class Projections

Thru 2024:    Corbin Burnes, Anthony Santander, John Means, Craig Kimbrel (’25 team option), Ryan O’Hearn, Danny Coulombe, James McCann

 

Thru 2025:    Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Dillon Tate, Jorge Mateo

 

Thru 2026:    Ryan Mountcastle, Cionel Perez, Cole Irvin, Ramon Urias, Jacob Webb, Keegan Akin

 

Thru 2027:    Adley Rutschman, Felix Bautista, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Ryan McKenna

 

Thru 2028:    Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Bradish, Yennier Cano, Mike Baumann, Bruce Zimmerman, Bryan Baker

 

Thru 2029:    Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Kyle Stowers, Nick Vespi

Edited February 5 by UMDTerrapins