Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[Brooks The Great]

We're getting to the point where regulars are going to be starting most of the rest of the way for spring training, so I think Westburg starting at 2B today was telling. 

Elias and Hyde are clearly in love with Urias and Mateo, and Urias/Mateo are going to make the team. In my opinion, that's more of a certainty right now than Holliday making the team.

It's been Elias's MO to hold on to mediocre veteran favorites he acquired off the scrap heap until the bitter end, whether they're free agent signings or waiver wire/Rule V dumpster dive claims. Odor, Frazier, Voth, Baker, Mateo. O'Hearn will probably wind up in that group this season. Urias is an exception as a waiver wire claim that has provided considerable value exceeding any of those in that aforemetioned group. However, he's a veteran, and he's an Elias/Hyde favorite. He's making the team, and I believe Mateo is as well. Having both of those guys on the team makes less sense if Holliday is the OD 2B, although Mateo could theoretically function as a backup SS/5th OF if Cowser makes the team (which I believe he should, and will) and McKenna is DFA'd.

Not only that, but Elias will usually elect to delay starting service time clocks as long as he can, and as often as he can. I disagree with how long Elias has stuck with mediocre vets, but there's certainly a case to be made for keeping Holliday and any elite prospect in Baltimore as long as possible, especially with Boras as Holliday's agent. If there are no injuries to the infielder group of Gunnar, Westburg, and Urias, then I expect that Elias is going to send down Holliday to AAA in order to gain an additional year of service time. Westburg deserves a shot at regular playing time, and he's going to finally get it. And Urias is going to get a good amount of at bats until Holliday gets called up to play everyday - unless Urias gets traded before Opening Day. Mayo is essentially in the same boat as Holliday, and I believe he's just as MLB-ready as Holliday is.

I've thought Holliday was going to start the year at AAA since the end of last season. I still believe that to be the case. Ortiz getting traded significantly increased the chances of Holliday heading north with the team, but at this point, I think only an injury or an additional trade makes it happen. I could certainly be wrong though, and would be glad to see Jackson play every day at 2B starting Opening Day. But ultimately, I think having the extra year of Holliday is the best-case scenario for the organization.

Edited March 13 by Brooks The Great

[DirtyBird]

3 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

We're getting to the point where regulars are going to be starting most of the rest of the way for spring training, so I think Westburg starting at 2B today was telling. 

Elias and Hyde are clearly in love with Urias and Mateo, and Urias/Mateo are going to make the team. In my opinion, that's more of a certainty right now than Holliday making the team.

It's been Elias's MO to hold on to mediocre veteran favorites he acquired off the scrap heap until the bitter end, whether they're free agent signings or waiver wire/Rule V dumpster dive claims. Odor, Frazier, Voth, Baker, Mateo. O'Hearn will probably wind up in that group this season. Urias is an exception as a waiver wire claim that has provided considerable value exceeding any of those in that aforemetioned group. However, he's a veteran, and he's an Elias/Hyde favorite. He's making the team, and I believe Mateo is as well. Having both of those guys on the team makes less sense if Holliday is the OD 2B, although Mateo could theoretically function as a backup SS/5th OF if Cowser makes the team (which I believe he should, and will) and McKenna is DFA'd.

Not only that, but Elias will usually elect to delay starting service time clocks as long as he can, and as often as he can. I disagree with how long Elias has stuck with mediocre vets, but there's certainly a case to be made for keeping Holliday and any elite prospect in Baltimore as long as possible, especially with Boras as Holliday's agent. If there are no injuries to the infielder group of Gunnar, Westburg, and Urias, then I expect that Elias is going to send down Holliday to AAA in order to gain an additional year of service time. Westburg deserves a shot at regular playing time, and he's going to finally get it. And Urias is going to get a good amount of at bats until Holliday gets called up to play everyday - unless Urias gets traded before Opening Day. Mayo is essentially in the same boat as Holliday, and I believe he's just as MLB-ready as Holliday is.

I've thought Holliday was going to start the year at AAA since the end of last season. I still believe that to be the case. Ortiz getting traded significantly increased the chances of Holliday heading north with the team, but at this point, I think only an injury or an additional trade makes it happen. I could certainly be wrong though, and would be glad to see Jackson play every day at 2B starting Opening Day. But ultimately, I think having the extra year of Holliday is the best-case scenario for the organization.

Westburg has started 5 games at 3rd and 2 each at 2nd and SS, but the single game he started at 2nd, over two weeks out from opening day, was “telling”.

[sportsfan8703]

The Rays sent Camienero down fyi. 

[Just Regular]

Severna Park's Jackson Merrill is going to South Korea with Manny Machado to test his skill at the MLB level.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Just Regular]

8 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

It's been Elias's MO to hold on to mediocre veteran favorites he acquired off the scrap heap until the bitter end, whether they're free agent signings or waiver wire/Rule V dumpster dive claims.

Even more so if he acquired them in the draft...remember when Rio Ruiz was going to suddenly defend the middle infield in the waning moments of his Orioles tenure.

Sigbot might today think as it always has that J.D. Davis is better than Ryan Mountcastle.    J.D. Davis' experiences of the last week...it is starting to settle for me that 2024 is the last Orioles season for both of The Ryans.

Even if they have good years as a platoon combo and get a bunch of RBI's.     I don't think there's as much as it may seem in the way of 2025 Opening Day 1B Samuel Basallo, especially if Mayo shows himself able to defend 3B.

[sportsfan8703]

Just to circle back on how valuable the draft pick could be if Holliday begins the season on the roster and wins the ROY. The pick only may be ranked as a certain value in the trade simulator, but it’s much more valuable to us versus another org. 

Whatever potential money/value we lose by not gaining the extra partial service year of Holliday, is value/money gained in that I trust our FO to use the pick/slot amount to nab us a contributor on our 2027-2033 ball clubs, or as a trade asset in between then. 

In the range of that pick we could draft a HS pitcher/HS SS that isn’t top tier but doesn’t want to go to NCAA, or an NCAA corner guy 1B/3B/LF/RF that doesn’t have superstar potential. Like a Dylan Beavers. Or a NCAA back of rotation SP/potential top bullpen pitcher. Like the next Dylan McDermott.

We’d have those guys for 6+ service years and their value over those years could offset whatever the value is of Holliday under control in arb in 2030. 

Let’s say Holliday is worth $60 million in value in 2030. Well a McDermott or Beavers type prospect could very well be right around that $60 million in value in over their six year career total.

Then Long/Short of it, let the kid eat from OD on. Get that ROY award and draft pick. 

Edited March 16 by sportsfan8703

[24fps]

23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just to circle back on how valuable the draft pick could be if Holliday begins the season on the roster and wins the ROY. The pick only may be ranked as a certain value in the trade simulator, but it’s much more valuable to us versus another org. 

Whatever potential money/value we lose by not gaining the extra partial service year of Holliday, is value/money gained in that I trust our FO to use the pick/slot amount to nab us a contributor on our 2027-2033 ball clubs, or as a trade asset in between then. 

In the range of that pick we could draft a HS pitcher/HS SS that isn’t top tier but doesn’t want to go to NCAA, or an NCAA corner guy 1B/3B/LF/RF that doesn’t have superstar potential. Like a Dylan Beavers. Or a NCAA back of rotation SP/potential top bullpen pitcher. Like the next Dylan McDermott.

We’d have those guys for 6+ service years and their value over those years could offset whatever the value is of Holliday under control in arb in 2030. 

Let’s say Holliday is worth $60 million in value in 2030. Well a McDermott or Beavers type prospect could very well be right around that $60 million in value in over their six year career total.

Then Long/Short of it, let the kid eat from OD on. Get that ROY award and draft pick. 

Your argument consists of five paragraphs.  Four of them revolve around the word "could" and the other is all about trust - trusting that the FO can peer several years into the future and successfully nullify the risk inherent in speculating about the unknowable.  I want to see Holliday on Opening Day too, but I sincerely hope Elias' decision-making process is a little more rigorous.

[spleen1015]

26 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Your argument consists of five paragraphs.  Four of them revolve around the word "could" and the other is all about trust - trusting that the FO can peer several years into the future and successfully nullify the risk inherent in speculating about the unknowable.  I want to see Holliday on Opening Day too, but I sincerely hope Elias' decision-making process is a little more rigorous.

His decision making process is a lot more rigorous than that any of us experts here.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

Your argument consists of five paragraphs.  Four of them revolve around the word "could" and the other is all about trust - trusting that the FO can peer several years into the future and successfully nullify the risk inherent in speculating about the unknowable.  I want to see Holliday on Opening Day too, but I sincerely hope Elias' decision-making process is a little more rigorous.

Ok I’ll simplify it. The pick Holliday could win us would be around #30ish. Here’s some players that Elias has drafted around that pick.

2022 #33 Dylan Beavers

2022 #42 Max Wagner

2021 #41 Connor Norby

2020 #30 Jordan Westburg 

2019 #42 Gunnar Henderson

So starting Holliday on OD, and losing the 2030 season of control, but gaining the #30 if he wins ROY, is definitely leaning to the side of being worth it given the past success we’ve had picking in a similar spot.

[connja]

If you have a kid who has a shot to be rookie of the year than you gotta put him not he OD roster.  Especially if he's earned it, which Holliday has.  These chances don't come around every year.  

[forphase1]

21 minutes ago, connja said:

If you have a kid who has a shot to be rookie of the year than you gotta put him not he OD roster.  Especially if he's earned it, which Holliday has.  These chances don't come around every year.  

While he'd have a shot this year,  he'd likely be the favorite next year.   I agree that Holliday has earned it,  but I just don't see it happening.  Until proven otherwise, I expect him down long enough to get the extra year of control,  get past Super 2 status and maybe even long enough to ensure his ROY chances for 2025.  I completely disagree with it going that way,  and hope he's starting on OD.  But until it's officially announced that he's not going back to AAA, that's where I expect to see him.

[Mooreisbetter27]

10 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

While he'd have a shot this year,  he'd likely be the favorite next year.   I agree that Holliday has earned it,  but I just don't see it happening.  Until proven otherwise, I expect him down long enough to get the extra year of control,  get past Super 2 status and maybe even long enough to ensure his ROY chances for 2025.  I completely disagree with it going that way,  and hope he's starting on OD.  But until it's officially announced that he's not going back to AAA, that's where I expect to see him.

The only way Holliday stays down long enough to not stay a rookie into 2025 is if he gets injured for most of the year or is catastrophically bad. 

[ChosenOne21]

10 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just to circle back on how valuable the draft pick could be if Holliday begins the season on the roster and wins the ROY. The pick only may be ranked as a certain value in the trade simulator, but it’s much more valuable to us versus another org. 

Whatever potential money/value we lose by not gaining the extra partial service year of Holliday, is value/money gained in that I trust our FO to use the pick/slot amount to nab us a contributor on our 2027-2033 ball clubs, or as a trade asset in between then. 

In the range of that pick we could draft a HS pitcher/HS SS that isn’t top tier but doesn’t want to go to NCAA, or an NCAA corner guy 1B/3B/LF/RF that doesn’t have superstar potential. Like a Dylan Beavers. Or a NCAA back of rotation SP/potential top bullpen pitcher. Like the next Dylan McDermott.

We’d have those guys for 6+ service years and their value over those years could offset whatever the value is of Holliday under control in arb in 2030. 

Let’s say Holliday is worth $60 million in value in 2030. Well a McDermott or Beavers type prospect could very well be right around that $60 million in value in over their six year career total.

Then Long/Short of it, let the kid eat from OD on. Get that ROY award and draft pick. 

$60 million in one player for one season is much more valuable than $60 million in one player over six seasons.

[btdart20]

8 hours ago, forphase1 said:

While he'd have a shot this year,  he'd likely be the favorite next year.   I agree that Holliday has earned it,  but I just don't see it happening.  Until proven otherwise, I expect him down long enough to get the extra year of control,  get past Super 2 status and maybe even long enough to ensure his ROY chances for 2025.  I completely disagree with it going that way,  and hope he's starting on OD.  But until it's officially announced that he's not going back to AAA, that's where I expect to see him.

No way Holliday is ROY eligible heading into 2025.  Super 2 maybe but the Adley clock is ticking.