Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[baltfan]

Here is video of Holliday's full at-bat vs. Skenes.

 

[sportsfan8703]

If Holliday was going to make the team on OD he would be playing 2B along side Gunnar at SS to build some chemistry. Gunnar has been back for 6 games and they only started beside each other on 3/8. 

We’ll have to see what happens over the next 10 days. Of course you can develop chemistry during drills and practice. 

There’s 8 ST games left. Gunnar is probably scheduled to play in 4-5 of those. Let’s see how many, if any, Holliday plays 2B along side him. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If Holliday was going to make the team on OD he would be playing 2B along side Gunnar at SS to build some chemistry. Gunnar has been back for 6 games and they only started beside each other on 3/8. 

We’ll have to see what happens over the next 10 days. Of course you can develop chemistry during drills and practice. 

There’s 8 ST games left. Gunnar is probably scheduled to play in 4-5 of those. Let’s see how many, if any, Holliday plays 2B along side him. 

At the same time, who HAS started consistently with Gunnar? Not Wong, who has paired with Holliday at SS at least as much as Gunnar I feel like. Westburg has bounced around too. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

At the same time, who HAS started consistently with Gunnar? Not Wong, who has paired with Holliday at SS at least as much as Gunnar I feel like. Westburg has bounced around too. 

Westburg played along side Gunnar their entire milb career and last year in the mlb. 

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Here is video of Holliday's full at-bat vs. Skenes.

 

To state the obvious.  It looks like a changeup on 2-0, a slider on 3-1, and another changeup on 3-2 that might have been a little off the plate.  Skenes was touching 102 but didn't throw one fastball in a fastball count.  It was actually a good AB but just better pitching.

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If Holliday was going to make the team on OD he would be playing 2B along side Gunnar at SS to build some chemistry. Gunnar has been back for 6 games and they only started beside each other on 3/8. 

We’ll have to see what happens over the next 10 days. Of course you can develop chemistry during drills and practice. 

There’s 8 ST games left. Gunnar is probably scheduled to play in 4-5 of those. Let’s see how many, if any, Holliday plays 2B along side him. 

That's actually a great point if they've only played side by side one game.  

[forphase1]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

No way Holliday is ROY eligible heading into 2025.  Super 2 maybe but the Adley clock is ticking.

We will see.   The Adley clock is ticking, yet all off season we only brought in Burnes and Kimbrel and a bunch of stuff off of the trash heap.  Didn't shore up the starting pitching even with injuries/setbacks to Bradish and Means and the bullpen has holes.   If Holliday and Mayo start in AAA, then either Mateo or Urias is starting practically every game.   McKenna or Mateo appears to be the Mullins backup of he's hurt, and we know how good they aren't. 

Point being the team didn't exactly load up for bear with this being a prime Adley year.  And I'm not completely saying they should have.   But to act like they are completely in a win now mode and won't factor in things like years of control, super 2 and, yes,  even ROY draft pick status next year, I don't think it's accurate. 

Again,  I hope Elias proves me wrong.   I want both Holliday and Mayo on the OD roster.  But I expect him to play the service time game... we will just have to see to what extent.

[Frobby]

Let’s see what happens in the remaining games.   I don’t think anything is set in stone yet.  

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

That's actually a great point if they've only played side by side one game.  

A big thanks for @DirtyBirdfor making and updating that ST lineup spreadsheet. 

I just want to make this clear… I want Holliday on the OD roster, to win ROY, and to win that draft pick. Anything I say otherwise is just trying to read into what’s going on. For ex. Why isn’t Holliday playing alongside Gunnar?  We’re getting down to the nitty gritty. 

[24fps]

11 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ok I’ll simplify it. The pick Holliday could win us would be around #30ish. Here’s some players that Elias has drafted around that pick.

2022 #33 Dylan Beavers

2022 #42 Max Wagner

2021 #41 Connor Norby

2020 #30 Jordan Westburg 

2019 #42 Gunnar Henderson

So starting Holliday on OD, and losing the 2030 season of control, but gaining the #30 if he wins ROY, is definitely leaning to the side of being worth it given the past success we’ve had picking in a similar spot.

Holliday turns 26 right before the 2030 season, so he will be entering his physical and presumably professional prime. I think we all agree he's an exceptional talent so can we pencil in 5 WAR for his age 26 season?  Maybe a little on the conservative side I think.

Try this for perspective: go to BBRef and find the MLB draft section, then pick any consecutive 10-year period between 1965 and say 2015.  Look at the draft picks between 30-45 and you will find that the number of players who put up 5 WAR for their entire careers looks to be no more than 10-15%.  The number who averaged even 2 WAR per season is vanishingly small.

Why on Earth would any sober GM not snag an extra year of control for a talent as special as Jackson Holliday when the chances of his gamble paying off are virtually nil?

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

Here is video of Holliday's full at-bat vs. Skenes.

 

That is why great pitching stops great hitting every time. That 3-1 slider was solid but that 3-2 change was absolutely elite. When you have 102 and can throw a 3-2 change like that....yikes. 

[Just Regular]

Obviously Holliday stronger in the long run, but how much of what Jackson Holliday might do with 600 PA is Coby Mayo capable of doing?

Another big afternoon for Mayo and it is getting to deciding time.    Mayo might be 90% of the RoY candidate Holliday is, and his 7th year closer to age 30 is probably a fair bit less valuable than Holliday's.

Of course both of them in fall lineups should we advance - a lot of the timing is just asset allocation.

[btdart20]

6 hours ago, forphase1 said:

We will see.   The Adley clock is ticking, yet all off season we only brought in Burnes and Kimbrel and a bunch of stuff off of the trash heap.  Didn't shore up the starting pitching even with injuries/setbacks to Bradish and Means and the bullpen has holes.   If Holliday and Mayo start in AAA, then either Mateo or Urias is starting practically every game.   McKenna or Mateo appears to be the Mullins backup of he's hurt, and we know how good they aren't. 

Point being the team didn't exactly load up for bear with this being a prime Adley year.  And I'm not completely saying they should have.   But to act like they are completely in a win now mode and won't factor in things like years of control, super 2 and, yes,  even ROY draft pick status next year, I don't think it's accurate. 

Again,  I hope Elias proves me wrong.   I want both Holliday and Mayo on the OD roster.  But I expect him to play the service time game... we will just have to see to what extent.

I think you're a year behind where the team is on road map.  Service time is always one consideration of a few variables.  Which is why not being on the OD and even Super 2 are non-zero odds.  But being 2025 ROY eligible (barring injury) isn't.  Elias would not have mentioned Holliday as a 2024 option if it was.  Why would he have said anything remotely hinting Holliday as a 2024 OD if 2025 was on the table?  That's not how a risk averse/hedge-conscience guy operates.

[btdart20]

56 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Obviously Holliday stronger in the long run, but how much of what Jackson Holliday might do with 600 PA is Coby Mayo capable of doing?

Another big afternoon for Mayo and it is getting to deciding time.    Mayo might be 90% of the RoY candidate Holliday is, and his 7th year closer to age 30 is probably a fair bit less valuable than Holliday's.

Of course both of them in fall lineups should we advance - a lot of the timing is just asset allocation.

Agreed.  I'd love to see both finalize their rookie integration for the post-season push.  I tend to think Mayo will be the sacrificial lamb to the service time gods.

[emmett16]

11 hours ago, baltfan said:

Here is video of Holliday's full at-bat vs. Skenes.

 

First 2 pitches were incredible takes.  That CU must be lethal.  I’m surprised he swung, that pitch was a good bit off the plate.  Jackson has been in swing mode all ST.