Is the rotation just back to square 1 with Burnes replacing Bradish's WAR?

[RarityFlaherty]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, we are on the same page here.  I’d put the odds that McDermott could help our rotation in 2024 somewhere around 25%.   

Wow, I do don’t know if I would put it that high. I’m a little more hopeful that we won’t need to dig into that kind of deep depth for the rotation. If he looks good in AAA this year, I’d more expect them to make space in the bullpen to bring him up. There are still a decent amount of guys ahead of him for rotation spots. If Means and Bradish both don’t play much for us this year he has a good shot, but I’m not ready to be that pessimistic about those injuries yet. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Wow, I do don’t know if I would put it that high. I’m a little more hopeful that we won’t need to dig into that kind of deep depth for the rotation. If he looks good in AAA this year, I’d more expect them to make space in the bullpen to bring him up. There are still a decent amount of guys ahead of him for rotation spots. If Means and Bradish both don’t play much for us this year he has a good shot, but I’m not ready to be that pessimistic about those injuries yet. 

Here’s how I see it: 319 pitchers made at least two starts last year.  That’s 10-11 per team.  We were a little fortunate and used 8 pitchers for 2+ starts.   We probably won’t be that lucky again. So, once you’re 10-11 pitchers deep, I think McDermott is a very viable candidate.  

FWIW, 55 pitchers made 1 start last year, including Keegan Akin for the O’s.  I decided not to mention those since a lot of them are “bullpen games.”
 

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Wow, I do don’t know if I would put it that high. I’m a little more hopeful that we won’t need to dig into that kind of deep depth for the rotation. If he looks good in AAA this year, I’d more expect them to make space in the bullpen to bring him up. There are still a decent amount of guys ahead of him for rotation spots. If Means and Bradish both don’t play much for us this year he has a good shot, but I’m not ready to be that pessimistic about those injuries yet. 

Pitcher injuries and regressions happen all the time, and McDermott has a strong resume in his own right. Now we know already that at least two of our starters are at heightened risk. Between opportunities opening up and McDermott simply pitching his way into the rotation, 25% seems about right. Probably not gonna happen but it could.

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

I agree with this. Even though Bradish was maybe better last year, healthy Burnes is a safer bet to be great this year than healthy Bradish. 

I also think Wells/Irvin are fine as starters. If you told me Bradish/Means were going to be out all year, but Burnes/GRod/Kremer/Wells/Irvin would all be fully healthy and throw 30 starts, I'd think that rotation was going to be pretty solid. 

The issues now are 1) those five won't all throw 30 starts, and while Bradish/Means are out, our 6th/7th options are huge question marks. 2) the bullpen was going to be really helped by Irvin/Wells' presence, and I don't love throwing, say, Akin/Baker into those roles. 

Akin and Baker to a lesser extent just got a huge reprieve with Bradish and Means not starting the year in the rotation. If we assume Wells and Irvin move into those roles, that opens two bullpen roles and if Akin throws well, you have to imagine he's one because he can give you length and is left-handed. Obviously Zimmermann will be in the conversation as well but Akin has more bullpen experience. 

Baker will be among the handful of candidates, to include Tate that now have more a chance to make the team since we know Baumann is going to make it with no options.

 

[RarityFlaherty]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Here’s how I see it: 319 pitchers made at least two starts last year.  That’s 10-11 per team.  We were a little fortunate and used 8 pitchers for 2+ starts.   We probably won’t be that lucky again. So, once you’re 10-11 pitchers deep, I think McDermott is a very viable candidate.  

FWIW, 55 pitchers made 1 start last year, including Keegan Akin for the O’s.  I decided not to mention those since a lot of them are “bullpen games.”
 

Yeah even if we see Bradish and Means, there’s really only Burnes, Rodriguez, Kremer, Wells, Irvin, Bradish, Means, and maybe Zimmerman ahead of him on the 40 man. Thats only 8. Heasley is probably just bullpen depth and McDermott is definitely ahead of Seth Johnson. You’re probably right that he could see at least a couple starts. 

[RarityFlaherty]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Pitcher injuries and regressions happen all the time, and McDermott has a strong resume in his own right. Now we know already that at least two of our starters are at heightened risk. Between opportunities opening up and McDermott simply pitching his way into the rotation, 25% seems about right. Probably not gonna happen but it could.

Yeah I’m trying to be optimistic about Bradish and Means. With the numbers Frobby just posted, I’m starting to think 25% might be conservative though if we are just talking about getting a couple starts. I was more thinking in terms of hoping things don’t get to the point where we need him to be a significant part of the rotation. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Yeah I’m trying to be optimistic about Bradish and Means. With the numbers Frobby just posted, I’m starting to think 25% might be conservative though if we are just talking about getting a couple starts. I was more thinking in terms of hoping things don’t get to the point where we need him to be a significant part of the rotation. 

You could look at it more positively as saying that maybe McDermott will pitch his way into earning a more significant role in the rotation.   Let’s say it’s the second half, McDermott has done very well at Norfolk, and Kremer goes on the shelf for some reason.  At that point, giving McDermott his shot might be a better option than shuttling Irvin or Wells out of their bullpen role, or bringing up a Zimmermann type.   It all depends on how well McDermott has pitched.   

Anyway, I certainly think McDermott stays in Norfolk in the first half, almost no matter what happens.   
 

[RZNJ]

Square one was pretty good.  I’m interested to see if Irvin can seize this opportunity and run with it.  One man’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity.

[Just Regular]

McDermott and Povich have both already thrown about as many AAA innings as a bunch of young MLB starters who have cut it in the game.

I know Sigbot likes to polish its products to an oh-so-fine shine but if 2024 ends without McDermott and Povich able to help the MLB club, it may be that time is never.

Based on today's available info, we know April/May is a time of need, June/July Bradish and Means return to the picture if they can, and August/September rosters are blank slates.

Is Cole Irvin better than both of them today?

In terms of back to square 1, I've kind of pegged Corbin Burnes as the backfill for both Kyle Gibson and Felix Bautista in terms of the basket of output the team generates, so the Bradish test feels more like one of the Wells-Irvin-McDermott-Povich part of the depth chart.

[now]

I think most are discounting Kremer's value as a #3, after he went 13-5 with a league average ERA and 1.5 WAR. Isn't that about right for slotting at #3? As for bullpen, no one but Tony even mentioned Tate. So yeah, we're worse off, but not quite as bad as it might seem at first glance.

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, now said:

I think most are discounting Kremer's value as a #3, after he went 13-5 with a league average ERA and 1.5 WAR. Isn't that about right for slotting at #3? As for bullpen, no one but Tony even mentioned Tate. So yeah, we're worse off, but not quite as bad as it might seem at first glance.

Because he's not.

[BirdCakes22]

Hyde said Means will be ready to pitch in April, so I don't think so. We are much better off. Burns is a better pitcher than Bradish and throws more innings typically, and you are adding Means to Grayson, DK, Wells and Irvin. 

[IPlayGM]

21 hours ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Wow, I do don’t know if I would put it that high. I’m a little more hopeful that we won’t need to dig into that kind of deep depth for the rotation. If he looks good in AAA this year, I’d more expect them to make space in the bullpen to bring him up. There are still a decent amount of guys ahead of him for rotation spots. If Means and Bradish both don’t play much for us this year he has a good shot, but I’m not ready to be that pessimistic about those injuries yet. 

I would.  From everything I have read and seen about McDermott I think he could start the year in the bullpen for the Os and have success. His BA numbers against are downright filthy. I know the question is about the rotation, but IMO with the arsenal he has, with just a little refinement he could come up and surprise. He may be the prospect I have gotten the most excited about this off-season.