Orioles 5-2 over Pirates (observations)

[dystopia]

I'm not worried about Grayson yet. Spring games don't really count. It's just to build up their stamina for regular season action. 

[emmett16]

13 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Harding throwing Matus?   That is a good one.  I wish I had thought of it.   You nailed it.

 

13 hours ago, Triple Crown said:

Agree 100% with the Povich assessment. I just don’t see major league stuff at all and I’ve seen him multiple times. Kind of reminds me of a tad harder throwing Brian Matusz. Hope I’m dead wrong 

Matusz had 261Ks in 279 IP (MiLB)
Povich has 338 Ks  in 250 IP

 

Besides being left handed they aren’t remotely similar.  

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

 

Matusz had 261Ks in 279 IP (MiLB)
Povich has 338 Ks  in 250 IP

 

Besides being left handed they aren’t remotely similar.  

I’d like to see the average K rates then vs now in the minor leagues.  I’ll just disagree.   Povich reminds me very much of Matusz.   
 

The ML K rate in 2009 was 6.91.  In 2023 it was 8.61.  If you round that to 2 K difference per 9, that would put Matusz around 320 K’s in 279 IP.   Matusz had much better control though.

It’s about more than statistics.  The stuff and mechanics and his physicality all remind me of Matusz.

Edited March 4 by RZNJ

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’d like to see the average K rates then vs now in the minor leagues.  I’ll just disagree.   Povich reminds me very much of Matusz.   

Matusz never had swing and miss stuff.  He was a command guy and a nibbler.  Povich spins it right down the middle and dares the batter to try and hit it.  And Povich doesn’t have bright red cheeks and a deer in headlights look on his face while he pitches. 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Tyler Wells didn't look great last spring training either but when the games actually counted he was the Orioles best pitcher for the first half before the All Star break. 

I think pitchers use the exhibition games to experiment with their stuff and to test it out on real hitters.

Sometimes that’s the explanation, other times they’re just not that sharp.  Grayson probably will start 4 more games, so how he looked yesterday is pretty insignificant in terms of drawing any grand conclusions yet.  

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Matusz never had swing and miss stuff.  He was a command guy and a nibbler.  Povich spins it right down the middle and dares the batter to try and hit it.  And Povich doesn’t have bright red cheeks and a deer in headlights look on his face while he pitches. 

For a pitcher who spins it right over the middle, a walk rate over 4.5/9 seems a little high.   My previous post shows that Matusz minor league numbers would have been closer to Povich in this era of swing and miss.

 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

For a pitcher who spins it right over the middle, a walk rate over 4.5/9 seems a little high.   My previous post shows that Matusz minor league numbers would have been closer to Povich in this era of swing and miss.

 

Good post and good points.  No doubt Povich needs command.  And that’s the difference I see between the two.  Povich gets outs with his stuff and Matusz got outs with his command.  To be fair to Matusz, I’m pretty sure he was injured after the 2010 season.  He was getting Ks in the minors at a good clip in 2009.  After his 2010 workload he was never the same and the Ks never returned.  
 

Also his BB/9 is 3.8 not 4.5.  It’s been as low as 2.1 in college and 2.8 in the low minors.  It spiked in AA & AAA.  To me that a guy working on pitches and who has stuff that moves so much it falls out of the zone. I think he will play a significant roll for the O’s in the future and as early as this year.  

Edited March 4 by emmett16

[deward]

32 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Matusz never had swing and miss stuff.  He was a command guy and a nibbler.  Povich spins it right down the middle and dares the batter to try and hit it.  And Povich doesn’t have bright red cheeks and a deer in headlights look on his face while he pitches. 

If Povich can come out of the pen and routinely tie Rafael Devers into knots the way Matusz did to David Ortiz, then I'd take it.

[nevadaO]

14 hours ago, Sanity Check said:

Count me as another who has seen Povich multiple times at Norfolk last year, and I wasn't impressed with his approach or command in the games I saw him.  Apparently, he did well in some games I didn't see him.  If he gets called up to the O's, I'll do him - and everyone on here - a favor and not watch him 

I also saw him a few times in Norfolk and agree completely. He got knocked around every time I saw him. He missed the zone a TON and wasn't fooling anybody.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, nevadaO said:

I also saw him a few times in Norfolk and agree completely. He got knocked around every time I saw him. He missed the zone a TON and wasn't fooling anybody.

I’ve been a bit of a Povich skeptic, but some of this depends what day you see him.  While in Norfolk, he had two games of 6 IP 1 R 1 H, a game of 6 IP, 0 R, 3 H, and a game of 5.2 IP 1 R, 2 H.   Overall at Norfolk,he only allowed 32 hits in 45.1 innings, while striking out 53.   So, I don’t buy the argument that he’s easily hittable and doesn’t fool anybody.  He’s just maddeningly inconsistent from one game to the next, and his bad days are quite bad.  For me, it’s all about gaining consistency for him.  

[nevadaO]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve been a bit of a Povich skeptic, but some of this depends what day you see him.  While in Norfolk, he had two games of 6 IP 1 R 1 H, a game of 6 IP, 0 R, 3 H, and a game of 5.2 IP 1 R, 2 H.   Overall at Norfolk,he only allowed 32 hits in 45.1 innings, while striking out 53.   So, I don’t buy the argument that he’s easily hittable and doesn’t fool anybody.  He’s just maddeningly inconsistent from one game to the next, and his bad days are quite bad.  For me, it’s all about gaining consistency for him.  

Yes I agree 100%. Just the days I saw him pitch weren't good, not every outing.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

24 minutes ago, nevadaO said:

I also saw him a few times in Norfolk and agree completely. He got knocked around every time I saw him. He missed the zone a TON and wasn't fooling anybody.

I haven't seen Povich pitch, but I've been checking his stats during the course of last season and wondering why this guy is getting hyped up. Povich posted a 5.00 ERA last season with a 1.358 WHIP. Yes, Povich's SO9 was impressive at 12.2, but if he's having trouble with MILB hitters how will he be able to shutdown MLB hitters?

Povich is a work in progress and the Orioles analytics team has worked wonders with improving pitchers, but I'll be slightly surprised if he develops into a quality MLB pitcher.

[interloper]

16 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I’ve never been impressed by Povich.  Today was just confirmation bias.  Looks like a  potential #5 starter to me.  He was 92 the 1st inning and 92-94 the 2nd.  None of his pitches look great to me.  I think I saw some cutters at 88-89.  Each pitch type, he threw some good ones but my impression is that ML hitters would eat him alive right now.

I guess I'm a little more positive on what I saw from Povich yesterday. We did see 3 Ks in 2 innings, so he got a good amount of whiffs. The 4 hits indicates maybe he was missing more in the zone than out, since he had 0 walks. I would prefer that to the walks, probably. I think he's just going to be a later bloomer than we hoped, and we'll see him towards the end of the season in some capacity. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ve been a bit of a Povich skeptic, but some of this depends what day you see him.  While in Norfolk, he had two games of 6 IP 1 R 1 H, a game of 6 IP, 0 R, 3 H, and a game of 5.2 IP 1 R, 2 H.   Overall at Norfolk,he only allowed 32 hits in 45.1 innings, while striking out 53.   So, I don’t buy the argument that he’s easily hittable and doesn’t fool anybody.  He’s just maddeningly inconsistent from one game to the next, and his bad days are quite bad.  For me, it’s all about gaining consistency for him.  

Agreed.  The talent is there.  The confidence to throw his pitches is there.  The game-to-game consistency?  Not so much!  Which seems really odd.

I'm still a fan with SP3/SP4 hopes.  He's the type who uses the analytics in his own.  

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I haven't seen Povich pitch, but I've been checking his stats during the course of last season and wondering why this guy is getting hyped up. Povich posted a 5.00 ERA last season with a 1.358 WHIP. Yes, Povich's SO9 was impressive at 12.2, but if he's having trouble with MILB hitters how will he be able to shutdown MLB hitters?

Povich is a work in progress and the Orioles analytics team has worked wonders with improving pitchers, but I'll be slightly surprised if he develops into a quality MLB pitcher.

Kyle Bradish was a 1.43 WHIP, 4.67 ERA in his 24 year old season at Norfolk.

Here is Tony's report on him, with a 5th starter ceiling https://orioleshangout.com/2021/11/11/17-kyle-bradish/

Povich's 24 year old season is coming up. It is pretty clear he needs to keep the walks down, but milb hitters had just as much trouble with him when he was in the zone.