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What if Holliday is sent down?

Sports Guy

By Sports Guy
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Holliday sent down  

113 members have voted

  1. 1. What will your reaction be if the Os send Holliday to AAA to start the year?

    • Like it. Gives the team the potential to get the extra year of service time and allows him to work on defense and hitting vs lefties in a lower pressure environment
      23
    • Hate it. He’s one of the best players, so he should be out there
      32
    • Don’t really care either way. Happy with either decision
      58

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not sure the power is comparable. Holliday has higher EVs. His power upside is higher.

I don’t think you are reading what I’m saying correctly. I think Adley is extremely talented. I just think we happen to have an organization right now where they are 2 and maybe as many as 4 guys more talented.  It’s quite possible that in a few years, the Os will have 5 of the 20 most talented players in the sport. 
 

Adley has to be more consistent with his throwing before you put that last statement in there.  
 

 

It's really a lot of splitting hairs.  They were both 1-1 draft picks and unanimous #1 overall prospects.  Obviously, they're both extremely talented.  A preference for one or the other is fine, but I don't think it's fair to say Holliday clearly outclasses Adley as a talent.

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ThisIsBirdland
ThisIsBirdland

I'd prefer a fourth option that would be begrudgingly accepting it as in the best interests of the team if they elect to do so, but not necessarily liking it.

SilverRocket
SilverRocket

Okay, I found this: https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-performance-incentive-ppi-eligible-players So the threshold is that he needs the earn that full year of service time naturally. He doesn't

MCO'sFan
MCO'sFan

I think it is possible that he is the best option at 2nd base and he still gets sent down to work on defense and vs LHP. If ME decides that it is in his and the teams best interest to do so. Either wa

spleen1015 Veteran All-Star

spleen1015

Posted
Posted

Went #2. He's the best option for 2B this year. This organization is in win mode. Having him at 2B gives them the best chances to win.

I'm confident he's going to be on the OD roster because of what Elias said.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Posted

I want the O’s to win the division and make the playoffs.  If that happens, whatever they do with Holliday is fine with me.  Do whatever gives us the best chance to win.  I don’t assume that will mean putting Holliday on the OD roster, but it might.  

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spleen1015 Veteran All-Star

spleen1015

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I want the O’s to win the division and make the playoffs.  If that happens, whatever they do with Holliday is fine with me.  Do whatever gives us the best chance to win.  I don’t assume that will mean putting Holliday on the OD roster, but it might.  

We need Doctor Strange to look at all 14,000,605 possibilities and let us know which is the right one.

Edited by spleen1015
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Billy F-Face3 Hangout Grand Counsel

Billy F-Face3

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

I picked option 3.   I think his ability to hit lefties MAY play some sort of role in their decision making, but I'm not sure it's that big of a deal.  You have versatile guys in Urias, Westburg, and Gunnar that can start against lefties.   Heck, if Mateo somehow sticks around as an IF/OF, you have even more depth.

I trust the management of this team to make the right decisions.

This is the correct answer.

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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4 hours ago, George Zuverink said:

My guess is that some of Sig's simulation models look at more possible combinations than that.

Perhaps, but what would Sig do with all of that?  The amount of time he and Elias and a few others have to actually think deeply about stuff like this is limited, so any decently designed model would first filter out data presentations that the recipient(s) found irrelevant which would be at least 99% of them in a situation like this. 

It's our collective 21st century dilemma in a nutshell.

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HowAboutThat Hangout Grand Counsel

HowAboutThat

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9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well years isn’t really about us…it’s about him right?  How many of those FA years does he want to give up?

Now, it could also be structured to be like the Witt contract where he essentially gets several option years.

Lets just say you bring him up from day 1 this year and he is here to stay.

3 years of league minimum and then 3 more years where he probably makes somewhere between 40-55M. 

On the low end, that has him in the are of 6/42ish and on the high end of 6/58ish.

That means he is a FA for his age 27 season. I can’t imagine he will be willing to give up more than 3 FA years and 3 may be tough. 
 

So, (changing what I said in the original post because I was just throwing something out there) I think an 8 year deal for 110-120M is something he just can’t and wouldn’t turn down. That is essentially guaranteeing him high end money for this time period and it allows him to be a FA at a prime time of his career.  If you could extend it to 9/150, that’s cool too but I think that’s stretching it, at least in terms of a guarantee..like I said, maybe you can get player options.

I was pondering whether to sign in, just to make exactly this point, and almost exactly this length of contract/money.

I think it would be best to try an 8- year contract so he’s 28 as an FA( with so many rings he’s running out of fingers) and he can still get another 8-10 year contract.

A nice compact 8/115, or maybe 9 with an opt out after 8.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, 6 weeks puts him in that Adley range. You probably can argue that he has more competition for top 2 this year than Adley had. 
 

The other thing with 4-6 weeks is that also likely means he’s a super 2. Not definite but likely.(especially if it’s more like 4 weeks)

There are some nice rookies this year, but Adley's 2022 did have Julio and Witt on Opening Day rosters.     Rangers guys against Orioles guys should be good competition if we aren't bobbing and weaving.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Pickles said:

I also don't think he's near as read as Adley was to hit the ground running.

 

Well, sure.    But COVID and Mike Elias' management of the Orioles talent were some of the causes there too.    Adley is the one whose debut age is a wild outlier for how strong a player he is.

In 2030, Jackson Holliday's salary is probably going to be ~$18M, or ~$30M, and the Orioles have the edge on the field to win his buy-in either way.

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George Zuverink Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

George Zuverink

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42 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Perhaps, but what would Sig do with all of that?  The amount of time he and Elias and a few others have to actually think deeply about stuff like this is limited, so any decently designed model would first filter out data presentations that the recipient(s) found irrelevant which would be at least 99% of them in a situation like this. 

It's our collective 21st century dilemma in a nutshell.

Yup. It’d what I do for a living.

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waroriole Hangout Grand Counsel

waroriole

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The draft pick that he could win is really important to us. 

It’s not as important as an extra year of control. We didn’t suddenly become the Dodgers since getting rid of the Angelos family. Can’t assume uncle Dave is gonna spend like crazy. 
 

I hope they’ve at least explored extension with him, and he sees it as a ticket to start the season in Baltimore. 

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