An updated guess at the bullpen

[interloper]

It's March 7 and I've already changed my tune on my early assumptions on the bullpen makeup. Based on what we've seen and things we've learned since spring training started, here is how I see it shaking out as of 3/7/24:

1. Kimbrel - closer. Whether we like it or not.

2. Cano - setup. It's a good idea to slow play him this spring. 70+ innings is a ton.

3. Coulombe - setup. So far so good, he looks pretty much the same.

4. Perez - middle/late inning. A little up and down so far, but he'll get a very long leash and hopefully he's the second half version from last year. 

5. Tate - middle/late inning. Looks good so far. If he's healthy, he's in, options be damned. Chance to really be a guy who solidifies this whole pen.

6. Baumann - middle. Velocity is up and he looks strong so far. He faded late in the season but if he takes another step this year, that's huge. Earlier in the offseason I thought he might get traded since he's out of options, but now I think he's kind of a near-lock on a squad that needs right-handed velocity and the ability to soak up multiple innings.

7. Akin - middle/long. Velo is up and he's pounding the zone like he did in 2022. He's out of options and I think he gets in as a stand in for Irvin's role.

8. Teheran - long. I really want to go Albert Suarez here but the Orioles may want to stash him in AAA for the time being since they have that luxury. Teheran has looked good and he seems like the rubber armed kind of veteran that might do well in this role. At least early on. It only costs them a couple mil to find out. 

Other guys:

Webb - has looked pretty bad but we do owe him arb money, so I'm kind of curious how that plays out since he's out of options. Initially I figured he'd make it over Baumann, but I have backtracked hard on this of late. Perhaps he's traded for cash or simply released.

Zimmermann - perfect swingman AAA depth. He'll go back to Norfolk and await his next cup of coffee.

Both Suarezes - AAA for now.

Baker - to Norfolk with you.

Vespi - likewise. Good depth piece though.

Heasley/Ort/Krook - AAA or DFA. 

Edited March 7 by interloper

[wildcard]

The two Suarez guys are part of the equation.   Andrew has a option so he probably go to AAA but Albert depends  on whether he has an opt out.

I am not worried about Webb's salary which is 1M.   Put him on waivers and some team will claim his and his salary goes with him.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The two Suarez guys are part of the equation.   Andrew has a option so he probably go to AAA but Albert depends  on whether he has an opt out.

I am not worried about Webb's salary which is 1M.   Put him on waivers and some team will claim his and his salary goes with him.

I think Albert can go to AAA. He was signed as a minor league free agent last September and isn't on the 40-man. But maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Edited March 7 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

[ChosenOne21]

I would rather have Webb in the pen than Teheran

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I would rather have Webb in the pen than Teheran

I would rather have Webb in Aberdeen than on the Os.

I don’t care what the baseball savant page showed, he blows. You can get a Webb like pitcher off the waiver wire whenever you want.

I would take Baumann over him 100 times out of 100. Baumann at least has a chance of being a higher impact guy and i suspect Baumann will have at least one season of being a high leverage reliever.  Webb isn’t that guy.

I know you were taking about Teheran here but just saying, it’s going to come down to a bunch of these types of guys and Baumann should be at the head of that list compared to all these dime a dozen guys.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think this is all correct, except Webb will probably make it somehow, either by optioning Akin or by letting Teheran potentially opt out.

They do have Tate with an option if they ever become desperate for a fresh arm and need to cycle through the Norfolk shuttle, as an alternative to a DFA for Baumann/Webb/Teheran.

If they don’t add anybody they are badly going to need one of the RHP to step up. 

Means could conceivably come back soon and push Irvin or Wells back to the pen, which could help. Would be even better if they added Snell or Montgomery…

[Moose Milligan]

Tate returning to form would be a big shot in the arm for this unit.

Not having Bautista hurts and certainly changes the way the bullpen looks but even if he were here (and I realize that probably means no Kimbrel) I'd still have a lot of reservations about this group.

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think Albert can go to AAA. He was signed as a minor league free agent last September and isn't on the 40-man. But maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Do either Suarez's have an opt out?

[Orioles0615]

Man that bullpen looks rough

[StottyByNature]

Really hope they move on from Webb.  He had a nice start with us but I think he's just filler at this point with little upside.

[interloper]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

While I won't go that far I understand the sentiment. They really need another high impact arm and should have been way more aggressive trying to find one this offseason. 

I do think this pen as constructed CAN be successful, but there are a lot of question marks. In particular I'd love to upgrade on Perez's spot. We are sort of miscasting him as a high leverage guy. Other than closer that's my least favorite spot in the pen right now.

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do either Suarez's have an opt out?

I don't think so. 

[BRobinsonfan]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The two Suarez guys are part of the equation.   Andrew has a option so he probably go to AAA but Albert depends  on whether he has an opt out.

I am not worried about Webb's salary which is 1M.   Put him on waivers and some team will claim his and his salary goes with him.

If Albert and Andrew Suarez make the team, what do they wear on the back of their jerseys? 

[Spy Fox]

I think the 6/7/8 spots in this pen will avoid being too bad. We have enough depth guys that are viable major league relievers. 

What I'm worried about is the back end being any better than "viable." Kimbrel could be fading, Cano could have been a one hit wonder, and Cionel might just be bad. Even in his good second half, the BB and K rates were not what you want to see in a late inning reliever.