Will the O’s trade away a position player before Opening Day?

[Malike]

People would have been traded had there been a market for them. Nobody is giving up anything for O'Hearn, McKenna, or Mateo (who isn't going anywhere anyway).

[Winter]

8 hours ago, Philip said:

I’m terribly worried that Wong will make the team because “he’s a veteran” or some such malarkey.

I’m equally worried that Elias will do nothing because he’d rather his kids grow old and die in AAA than trade one or two for less than a 100% return.

but I hopefully voted Yes.

The bigger question though, would be why wouldn’t he? We were one Rangers hot streak away from the ALCS. And he won’t part with anything to take another step?

I came here to say this, please god no

[MTMan13]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because the depth is there anyway and depth that just keeps better players in the minors when they are ready isn’t helpful.

I like Urias. I think he’s a good player and honestly, I would like to keep him here. That said, he shouldn’t be here over Holliday or Mayo…same with Mateo. 
 

We have an abundant amount of talent and not just talent but talent that is ready today and we are arguing about keeping 1-2 WAR guys who are approaching the wrong ages, higher salaries  and just don’t move the needle. That doesn’t mean they aren’t valuable guys because they are.  All of them are guys winning teams have. I’m not debating that.

But this is  a team that has clear needs at pitcher. This is a team that has clear roster advantages all over the place due to talent, salary, versatility and athleticism.

Because of the emphasis on certain skill levels, versatility and just the simple level of talent these guys have, Elias and his team have put together an incredible roster of ML, ML ready and close to ML ready players.

No one is asking to get rid of “depth”. What people are asking for is that you make the necessary room for the better players and you use your established existing depth and turn that into pitching you need right now…but when you do that, you will still have depth and you will still be in position to withstand injuries or poor performance, if and when they occur.

You summed it up. Holding onto 1-2 WAR guys approaching late arb / FA too long is how good teams lower their ceiling. But it's also something the Astros have not done much, so I am hopeful Elias will share your point of view. I wouldn't mind flipping one of our corner outfielders either, but know I am in the minority there.

Spring isn't over yet. If we're at OD with the same roster, I will be disappointed. 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Malike said:

People would have been traded had there been a market for them. Nobody is giving up anything for O'Hearn, McKenna, or Mateo (who isn't going anywhere anyway).

I think they could have moved Mateo out of that group.

I agree about OHearn and McKenna. I think McKenna could make it through waivers. 

I actually like OHearn on this team constructed the way I would like to see it constructed. 
 

But you could have moved Santander or Mountcastle. I don’t have any doubt about that.

Get Mateo and at least one of them off the team. 

[eddie83]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because the depth is there anyway and depth that just keeps better players in the minors when they are ready isn’t helpful.

I like Urias. I think he’s a good player and honestly, I would like to keep him here. That said, he shouldn’t be here over Holliday or Mayo…same with Mateo. 
 

We have an abundant amount of talent and not just talent but talent that is ready today and we are arguing about keeping 1-2 WAR guys who are approaching the wrong ages, higher salaries  and just don’t move the needle. That doesn’t mean they aren’t valuable guys because they are.  All of them are guys winning teams have. I’m not debating that.

But this is  a team that has clear needs at pitcher. This is a team that has clear roster advantages all over the place due to talent, salary, versatility and athleticism.

Because of the emphasis on certain skill levels, versatility and just the simple level of talent these guys have, Elias and his team have put together an incredible roster of ML, ML ready and close to ML ready players.

No one is asking to get rid of “depth”. What people are asking for is that you make the necessary room for the better players and you use your established existing depth and turn that into pitching you need right now…but when you do that, you will still have depth and you will still be in position to withstand injuries or poor performance, if and when they occur.

If they can move Urias for a bullpen upgrade I would do it. I’m not dealing him for prospects in March. Maybe the upcoming off-season not now. 
 

The Mayo’s of the world are going to be be everyday players. It may not happen as fast as everyone wants but it’s not like it’s not going to happen. 
 

It’s July 1, O’Hearn isn’t hitting and somebody is on the IL. If you had traded away guys and then multiple players are hurt/underperform then what? These guys are a phone call away. You are trying to get thru a 162 game season. Last year Hicks outplayed Cowser. Hicks is gone. Cowser has another shot. 
 

The opportunities are going to be there. They aren’t blocked. They are stalled. At a moments notice they are available. 

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think they could have moved Mateo out of that group.

I agree about OHearn and McKenna. I think McKenna could make it through waivers. 

I actually like OHearn on this team constructed the way I would like to see it constructed. 
 

But you could have moved Santander or Mountcastle. I don’t have any doubt about that.

Get Mateo and at least one of them off the team. 

I feel like there is no way Mateo isn't on the team. I doubt they trade Mounty or Santandar at this stage of the spring, though, I'm sure they'd net something, probably unspectacular but it does open spots.

[eddie83]

6 minutes ago, MTMan13 said:

You summed it up. Holding onto 1-2 WAR guys approaching late arb / FA too long is how good teams lower their ceiling. But it's also something the Astros have not done much, so I am hopeful Elias will share your point of view. I wouldn't mind flipping one of our corner outfielders either, but know I am in the minority there.

Spring isn't over yet. If we're at OD with the same roster, I will be disappointed. 

There is this desire to deal solid players away just to make sure all our young prospects are here outside of Basallo.
 

How do you know what you will need in July never mind know what injuries or poor performance occurs before then?

 

Is there a fear that Mayo and the others are never going to get a shot? I’m fine with moving some of these guys for a pen upgrade but I can just as easily deal them for prospects down the road as I can now. 

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

I feel like there is no way Mateo isn't on the team. I doubt they trade Mounty or Santandar at this stage of the spring, though, I'm sure they'd net something, probably unspectacular but it does open spots.

I agree about Mateo.
 

As everyone knows Santander is a pending FA. If they were to surprise me and keep him beyond this year then obviously someone gets traded but if he leaves it opens a spot right there. As for now a switch hitter with his pop can help us win. 

[MTMan13]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

There is this desire to deal solid players away just to make sure all our young prospects are here outside of Basallo.
 

How do you know what you will need in July never mind know what injuries or poor performance occurs before then?

 

Is there a fear that Mayo and the others are never going to get a shot? I’m fine with moving some of these guys for a pen upgrade but I can just as easily deal them for prospects down the road as I can now. 

The first sentence is not why I have this view, though I can't speak for SG. The desire is not just to "let the kids play together", but more to maximize value for the Urias, Mateo / (+ one of Santander / Hays for me) type guys on the roster that are blocking prospects we have a high confidence in contributing.

From the ST results so far, it's very hard for me to believe one of Cowser / Holliday / Mayo couldn't start at a level equal to or higher than the next guy on the depth chart after watching ST so far. If one of them is starting every day, someone with trade value is sitting or pushed to AAA. I want to cash those chips before we devalue them further. 

It also doesn't have to happen NOW, but soon!  

Edited March 11 by MTMan13

[eddie83]

20 minutes ago, MTMan13 said:

The first sentence is not why I have this view, though I can't speak for SG. The desire is not just to "let the kids play together", but more to maximize value for the Urias, Mateo / (+ one of Santander / Hays for me) type guys on the roster that are blocking prospects we have a high confidence in contributing.

From the ST results so far, it's very hard for me to believe one of Cowser / Holliday / Mayo couldn't start at a level equal to or higher than the next guy on the depth chart after watching ST so far. If one of them is starting every day, someone with trade value is sitting or pushed to AAA. I want to cash those chips before we devalue them further. 

It also doesn't have to happen NOW, but soon!  

The team won 101 games and traded for an ace. 
 

I see prospects that clearly have higher upside and project better long term but what about 2024? If Kjerstad as an example better than Santander/Hays in 2024? I’m not trading one of those guys just to find out. 

 

You mentioned Holliday/Cowser/Mayo. I clearly think there is room right now for 2 of them. I said in an earlier post the Orioles will probably have 2 upside prospects starting the year at AAA. My guess is it will be Kjerstad and Mayo. 
 

Any GM has to weigh multiple factors when building a roster. Lateral trades as I call them -between teams that view themselves as contenders- happen but not a ton. If a team wants Urias are they willing to weaken their pen to make it happen as an example? Are you willing to deal some of these guys just for prospects to clear space? You are trying to get thru 162 games as well. 
 

I’m just not worried that Elias will allow poor performance linger on with the talent you mentioned in the minors. 

[forphase1]

35 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

There is this desire to deal solid players away just to make sure all our young prospects are here outside of Basallo.

For me its just wanting to see the Os be the best team they can be.   I really think that replacing the at bats that Mateo and Urias take with appearances by Westburg, Holliday and/or Mayo makes us a better team.   The idea is to improve the MLB team.   We can't do that if the McKennas, Mateos and Urias are clogging up the roster spots.  If I didn't think the young kids were going to outperform the 'solid' players they are replacing then I wouldn't want them up here.   These kids are too good,  too talented to keep down while less talented players clog the batters box.   If that means we lose some solid players,  I'm OK with that,  as long as we are replacing them with better talent.  Unless Holliday or Mayo or both are on the Opening Day roster, then Urias or Mateo will be starting almost every day.   There is no way you can look at things and think that makes us a better,  stronger team versus having Holliday or Mayo in their place. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, MTMan13 said:

You summed it up. Holding onto 1-2 WAR guys approaching late arb / FA too long is how good teams lower their ceiling. But it's also something the Astros have not done much, so I am hopeful Elias will share your point of view. I wouldn't mind flipping one of our corner outfielders either, but know I am in the minority there.

Spring isn't over yet. If we're at OD with the same roster, I will be disappointed. 

FWIW, Urias is ~3.75 rWAR per 600 PA over his career (1164 PA)

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

I feel like there is no way Mateo isn't on the team. I doubt they trade Mounty or Santandar at this stage of the spring, though, I'm sure they'd net something, probably unspectacular but it does open spots.

I agree 

[Just Regular]

I think it was Fangraphs Ben Clemens wrestling with understanding the lower than expected Amed Rosario number that just like with Driveline students of the week, Clubs are getting sharper fashioning those 1.8 WAR/600 mix and matches out of entirely minimum wage labor.

J.D. Davis at $7M, and Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo owed 3-4X the MLB minimum are near enough to replacement level players they perhaps can't command even a complex level live arm.    We'll see soon if anyone claims Davis at full price.

I believe the Orioles economic analysts understand sunk costs and there is just the question of how the organization wants to deploy roster spots for its 2024 AL East title defense.     There's opportunity cost sharpening Jackson Holliday's skills every PA "not him" competes for the Orioles against Brayan Bello or Gerrit Cole.

In chess labels, tendering Mateo and Urias wasn't a blunder, but it may have been an inaccuracy.     They were/are insurance if Westburg/Mayo/Holliday scuffled and so far boy are they not.    Elias did the last minute Don Corleone thing on Yolmer Sanchez, and Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo have contributed a lot more to the Orioles, but I think it is basically like that in one maybe both of the cases.   I don't believe many in the Clubhouse would begrudge either guy their shot at a bigger role on any of the other Clubs.     We saw the love for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall on Burnes night.

During today's game from Santo Domingo, Red Sox hometown announcers speculated the Rays will offload somebody out of Jonathan Aranda, Richie Palacios but most probably Harold Ramirez set to earn about 5X the minimum.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

FWIW, Urias is ~3.75 rWAR per 600 PA over his career (1164 PA)

Absolutely worthless stat because it implies that he wouldn’t get exposed, wear down, etc…if he played everyday.

He’s a solid role player. I’m glad he has been an Oriole and would be happy with him being one going forward…but no one should even remotely believe he’s that good.