Will the O’s trade away a position player before Opening Day?

[Just Regular]

13 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

FWIW, Urias is ~3.75 rWAR per 600 PA over his career (1164 PA)

Clubs are getting sharp at mixing and matching!    He's a 29.8 year old infielder whose batted balls declined as last season finished up, and was 12th on the offense in PA those 3 crappy games against Texas near in time to when Mayo/Holliday were notching that sweet sweet AAA championship.

In ordinary Raysian fashion, we've enjoyed the peak for peanuts.    

I'm all in for Ramon Urias to have a successful 2024 and command about $7M next year like J.D. Davis did this year.    Many ex-Orioles of the Adley build-up will be cheered as visitors.

[eddie83]

34 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

For me it’s just wanting to see the Os be the best team they can be.   I really think that replacing the at bats that Mateo and Urias take with appearances by Westburg, Holliday and/or Mayo makes us a better team.   The idea is to improve the MLB team.   We can't do that if the McKennas, Mateos and Urias are clogging up the roster spots.  If I didn't think the young kids were going to outperform the 'solid' players they are replacing then I wouldn't want them up here.   These kids are too good,  too talented to keep down while less talented players clog the batters box.   If that means we lose some solid players,  I'm OK with that,  as long as we are replacing them with better talent.  Unless Holliday or Mayo or both are on the Opening Day roster, then Urias or Mateo will be starting almost every day.   There is no way you can look at things and think that makes us a better,  stronger team versus having Holliday or Mayo in their place. 

There is no scenario where Mateo would be starting everyday. Mateo is a bench player on this team. He isn’t getting a ton of at bats. 

Holliday/Urias/Westburg would be 3 players for 2 spots with Gunnar of course playing everyday. Plus occasionally DH. 

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

There is no scenario where Mateo would be starting everyday. Mateo is a bench player on this team. He isn’t getting a ton of at bats. 

Holliday/Urias/Westburg would be 3 players for 2 spots with Gunnar of course playing everyday. Plus occasionally DH. 

If you say so.  I'm not nearly as willing to say that Mateo will only be a bench player.  Even when he was terrible in the 2nd half of last year, he still started a 3rd of the games.  So I'm not convinced he's suddenly only going to be a bit/bench player.  He SHOULD be, if on the roster at all, but until I see Hyde/Elias/Sigbot keeping him on the bench regularly, I expect him to get way more playtime than he should.  

In your lineup, however, you are including Holliday.  If he's actually on the OD roster, then that's different.  You seemed to be arguing for a Westburg/Henderson/Urias/Mateo OD roster with the 'kids' all in AAA.  In that case then either Urias/Mateo are starting somewhere every day.  Which makes us weaker, IMO, versus having Holliday and/or Mayo getting most of the Urias/Mateo at bats.  

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

There is this desire to deal solid players away just to make sure all our young prospects are here outside of Basallo.

The last big bit of fun on the Minors board in April-May will be seeing if Basallo can keep you dreaming about the possibility he is vaguely Yordan-Soto-ish.

I don't care how many bases EBJ steals and don't want him to hurt himself.     I know Steve Melewski will file exciting reports.

The Johnson-de Leon-Baumeister group will have some wide outcome ranges, but some of what's settling this week is even McDermott-Povich are ~94% there being whatever they are.

What happens in June if Basallo is the best bat in the high Minors (save perhaps Coby Mayo or Jackson Holliday....), and neither Ryan is thriving.

[eddie83]

33 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I think it was Fangraphs Ben Clemens wrestling with understanding the lower than expected Amed Rosario number that just like with Driveline students of the week, Clubs are getting sharper fashioning those 1.8 WAR/600 mix and matches out of entirely minimum wage labor.

J.D. Davis at $7M, and Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo owed 3-4X the MLB minimum are near enough to replacement level players they perhaps can't command even a complex level live arm.    We'll see soon if anyone claims Davis at full price.

I believe the Orioles economic analysts understand sunk costs and there is just the question of how the organization wants to deploy roster spots for its 2024 AL East title defense.     There's opportunity cost sharpening Jackson Holliday's skills every PA "not him" competes for the Orioles against Brayan Bello or Gerrit Cole.

In chess labels, tendering Mateo and Urias wasn't a blunder, but it may have been an inaccuracy.     They were/are insurance if Westburg/Mayo/Holliday scuffled and so far boy are they not.    Elias did the last minute Don Corleone thing on Yolmer Sanchez, and Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo have contributed a lot more to the Orioles, but I think it is basically like that in one maybe both of the cases.   I don't believe many in the Clubhouse would begrudge either guy their shot at a bigger role on any of the other Clubs.     We saw the love for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall on Burnes night.

During today's game from Santo Domingo, Red Sox hometown announcers speculated the Rays will offload somebody out of Jonathan Aranda, Richie Palacios but most probably Harold Ramirez set to earn about 5X the minimum.

If Mayo makes the club where does Westburg play? If he plays 1st what about Mountcastle?
 

How many at bats do you project Mateo to get?

If both Urias and Mateo are gone you have this 

Adley/McCann

Mountcastle 

O’Hearn

Holliday 

Gunnar 

Mayo

Westburg 

Hays

Mullins

Santander 

Cowser 

Kjerstad 

 

It’s not possible to give all these players “everyday” at bats. It cost the Orioles $4.8M to keep both Urias and Mateo. There is no plausible scenario for the young players regardless if Urias or Mateo are still on the roster where guys aren’t sitting some. 

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

If you say so.  I'm not nearly as willing to say that Mateo will only be a bench player.  Even when he was terrible in the 2nd half of last year, he still started a 3rd of the games.  So I'm not convinced he's suddenly only going to be a bit/bench player.  He SHOULD be, if on the roster at all, but until I see Hyde/Elias/Sigbot keeping him on the bench regularly, I expect him to get way more playtime than he should.  

In your lineup, however, you are including Holliday.  If he's actually on the OD roster, then that's different.  You seemed to be arguing for a Westburg/Henderson/Urias/Mateo OD roster with the 'kids' all in AAA.  In that case then either Urias/Mateo are starting somewhere every day.  Which makes us weaker, IMO, versus having Holliday and/or Mayo getting most of the Urias/Mateo at bats.  

Mateo will be an extra INF/OF on this team. 
 

I’m saying there is room for Holliday/Urias/Westburg to play 2 spots. 

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The last big bit of fun on the Minors board in April-May will be seeing if Basallo can keep you dreaming about the possibility he is vaguely Yordan-Soto-ish.

I don't care how many bases EBJ steals and don't want him to hurt himself.     I know Steve Melewski will file exciting reports.

The Johnson-de Leon-Baumeister group will have some wide outcome ranges, but some of what's settling this week is even McDermott-Povich are ~94% there being whatever they are.

What happens in June if Basallo is the best bat in the high Minors (save perhaps Coby Mayo or Jackson Holliday....), and neither Ryan is thriving.

If neither Ryan is thriving I would expect Kjerstad to play all the time or close to it. 

[forphase1]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Mateo will be an extra INF/OF on this team. 
 

I’m saying there is room for Holliday/Urias/Westburg to play 2 spots. 

There is.  But I'd like the room a lot better if it was Holliday/Henderson/Mayo playing for the 3 main spots with Westburg getting 4 starts a week or so subbing at 2nd/3rd to give Holliday/Mayo a break directly and when Henderson needs a break then it's Westburg 2nd, Holliday SS and Mayo at 3rd.  Rotate the starts in those 3 IN positions between all four of them.  No need for Mateo or Urias at all really, or only honestly as bench players/pinch runner types.  I like Urias more than Mateo, but I don't really like either one very much, certainly not enough to want Urias playing that much in a rotation with Holliday and Westburg.  

[Just Regular]

The Rising Tide is coming for Ryan O'Hearn, and an incumbent starting outfielder in season.    If I jump to the end of 2024, I think Mountcastle, Westburg and one of the corner OF are underdogs to hold spots in October lineups.     Sigbot's expectation for the most potent October lineup is I believe:

Adley-Basallo-Holliday-Gunnar-Mayo

Cowser-Mullins-Kjerstad-<Santander-Hays-Mountcastle survivor>  

McCann, Westburg + non-survivors + EBJ are a bench with postseason change to 14/12 bat-arm ratio.   

Holliday and Mayo are current examples during these 2.5 weeks how the incentives negotiated by the MLBPA this CBA in pursuit of their goal of maximizing competition (as opposed to $$$/WAR efficiency) are performing.    Pete Alonso is making $20M not $30M this season...that's much of what Elias is considering for his, ummm, 2030 payroll forecast, apart from maybe also representing the Org in the spirit David Rubenstein would wish.

TEX is riding the World Series money bath, and Sigbot might trust Carter/Langford more in 4-6 weeks than it trusted Julio/Witt.     It is always fuzzy pinning Super 2, or who the league's two most valuable rookies are,  down.     I don't love conceding a valuable MLB experience edge to those opponents.     Shooting the moon is acquiring 2030 Club control of our two studs TEX won't enjoy, plus with a fraction of a MLB season's experience using them to defeat Carter, Langford, deGrom, Scherzer, etc. this fall.    

Unless Mullins opens on the IL I agree one of Kjerstad-Cowser has to go down while The Ryans are reviewed.    Both Ryans lineups do crush the big bonus babies - is a strict Ryans platoon fair to allow one bonus baby to DH (or field in Santander's place most days)?

Adley, "The Ryans", Holliday, Gunnar, Mayo, Hays, Mullins, Santander, Kjerstad, Westburg - one sits out every 10th game.     Maybe Mullins takes the first "I'm hurt" shift.     Ryan Mountcastle's finish was enticing, Ryan O'Hearn's....role probably migrates to the upcoming Kjerstad-Cowser loser.

I hope we are past opposing Juan Soto and Aaron Judge with MacGyver'd solutions...it might even create employee engagement energy from certain key individuals.

[eddie83]

6 hours ago, forphase1 said:

There is.  But I'd like the room a lot better if it was Holliday/Henderson/Mayo playing for the 3 main spots with Westburg getting 4 starts a week or so subbing at 2nd/3rd to give Holliday/Mayo a break directly and when Henderson needs a break then it's Westburg 2nd, Holliday SS and Mayo at 3rd.  Rotate the starts in those 3 IN positions between all four of them.  No need for Mateo or Urias at all really, or only honestly as bench players/pinch runner types.  I like Urias more than Mateo, but I don't really like either one very much, certainly not enough to want Urias playing that much in a rotation with Holliday and Westburg.  

I don’t think they have seen enough of Mayo at 3rd to hand him that job yet. 
 

It’s why I think he gets the bulk of his time at 3rd at AAA. 

[waroriole]

I said no, but I wonder if we see Mateo moved. He didn’t play CF at all last week, despite Mullins being out. There’s not many starts available for him at SS. Only if they wanted to sit Gunnar against a tough LH (5-10 times per year). Unless they move Gunnar around to 3B, there’s nowhere for Mateo to play. It’s nice to have depth, but if the #1 prospect also plays SS we should have it covered. 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I said no, but I wonder if we see Mateo moved. He didn’t play CF at all last week, despite Mullins being out. There’s not many starts available for him at SS. Only if they wanted to sit Gunnar against a tough LH (5-10 times per year). Unless they move Gunnar around to 3B, there’s nowhere for Mateo to play. It’s nice to have depth, but if the #1 prospect also plays SS we should have it covered. 

And so can Westburg or Urias if needed. May not be great options but in an injury during the game or a start or 2 situation, you will be fine.

Mateo only makes sense to be on the roster if Holliday isn’t and you plan on playing Mateo vs lefties. (Which he doesn’t hit well either)

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And so can Westburg or Urias if needed. May not be great options but in an injury during the game or a start or 2 situation, you will be fine.

Mateo only makes sense to be on the roster if Holliday isn’t and you plan on playing Mateo vs lefties. (Which he doesn’t hit well either)

Who will be the RH OF? Do you think McKenna makes the team?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Who will be the RH OF? Do you think McKenna makes the team?

Hays, Santander and Mayo should be our RH (obviously AS is a SH) OFers.

[sportsfan8703]

23 hours ago, wildcard said:

No.  On the 10th of March I see 15 position players for 13 spots.   But the toughest part of ST is yet to happen.    Give it time to shake out.

OF - (5) Hays, Mullins, Santander,  Cowser, Stowers

IF - (8) Gunnar, Mounty, O'Hearn, Mayo, Holliday, Westburg, Urias, Mateo

C- (2) Adley, McCann

Yup, Stowers and Mayo don't make the team.  The other 13 do.