Will the O’s trade away a position player before Opening Day?

[Hallas]

I think there's merit to waiting till the deadline and seeing what happens.  If the wheels fall off we can run out the prospects and see if they're going to stick.  If we're in contention we can better assess our needs.

 

Elias has shown he's willing to make trades, but he's also shown that he's unwilling to do more than absolutely necessary to remove unneeded depth from the farm system.  I don't know if I agree with continually keeping the farm system a hair under overflowing at all times, but I'm willing to wait till the deadline when our needs will be more obvious, and I'm willing to pay a premium for talent at that point.

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would any of us think Mateo can play CF?  

Because he's fast, has a great arm, has played there in the minors, and was talked up by the GM as playing there in the spring? 

 

[eddie83]

You have 1,458 games started by postion players. 
 

Gunnar and Adley will start around 300 games. Roughly 50-55 games combined at DH. McCann will start around 50 games at catcher. 
 

That leaves 1,134 games started for 10 players with about 105-110 of those games at DH. 
 

Mountcastle RH

Westburg RH

Urias RH

Hays RH

Mateo RH

Santander SH

O’Hearn LH

Holliday LH

Mullins LH

Cowser LH

If healthy Santander will start around 140-145 games. That leaves around 990 starts for 9 players. Mullins will start around 135-140 games. That leaves around 850 starts for 8 players. So they are going to juggle 8 players for 850 starts? The amount of complaining will be bad enough with Urias and Mateo still here, I can only imagine Mayo and Kjerstad in the mix. 
 

I don’t get this idea that Mateo has no role here. He has a different skill set than the other players.  If O’Hearn, Santander, Cowser, Mullins heck even Mountcastle go on the IL Kjerstad is a phone call away. 

[Hallas]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would any of us think Mateo can play CF?  

Last year's trial in CF wasn't his first foray there in the majors; the Padres ran him in the outfield in 2021 as well.  He didn't look great last year, but I'll attribute that to getting acclimated to the position midseason and having some tough chances.  He actually had a positive OAA number in the outfield in 2021.

[btdart20]

How badly do they want Mayo on OD?  That is the backdrop for any trade IMO.

We have to assume he and Hollisay are priority plays like Gunnar was last year.  So 500ish PAs.  (Westburg, Cowser, Stowers, HK would not be as prioritized.  Westburg would still push toward 450 PAs.)

 

I'm not convinced Mateo makes the team.  But if he does, I think he'll have less than McKenna PAs from 2023.  And that assumes they have Holliday backup Gunnar at SS instead of Mateo...  There is very little connection to Mateo's potential role to Holliday's.  I don't buy the one or the other bit.

The PAs loosen up a bit IF they feel comfortable with Mayo at 1B or RF.  But that squeezes Mounty (as the RHH) and Hays/Santander (and the LHH rookies) in the OF.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Because he's fast, has a great arm, has played there in the minors, and was talked up by the GM as playing there in the spring? 

 

He wasn’t talked up. Elias said they wanted to try him out there.

Yes he’s fast but that doesn’t mean he play CF. We have no idea how the arm truly plays in the OF.

He hasn’t been there for years. There is zero reason for any of us to just assume he can play the position. Maybe he eventually can but in the context of what we are discussing, it would be foolish to expect him to be a better back up OFer than McKenna..plus McKenna is probably the better offensive player.

Also, they both likely can make the team anyway.

I think the Os, unless there is a trade(s) out there will maximize all of there depth, which means they don’t even risk losing McKenna right now.

[Hallas]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He wasn’t talked up. Elias said they wanted to try him out there.

Yes he’s fast but that doesn’t mean he play CF. We have no idea how the arm truly plays in the OF.

He hasn’t been there for years. There is zero reason for any of us to just assume he can play the position. Maybe he eventually can but in the context of what we are discussing, it would be foolish to expect him to be a better back up OFer than McKenna..plus McKenna is probably the better offensive player.

Also, they both likely can make the team anyway.

I think the Os, unless there is a trade(s) out there will maximize all of there depth, which means they don’t even risk losing McKenna right now.

 

Are you worried about his outfield throwing mechanics?  Because his statcast velo numbers from the infield suggest that he will have no problem with his velocity in the outfield.

[eddie83]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

How badly do they want Mayo on OD?  That is the backdrop for any trade IMO.

We have to assume he and Hollisay are priority plays like Gunnar was last year.  So 500ish PAs.  (Westburg, Cowser, Stowers, HK would not be as prioritized.  Westburg would still push toward 450 PAs.)

 

I'm not convinced Mateo makes the team.  But if he does, I think he'll have less than McKenna PAs from 2023.  And that assumes they have Holliday backup Gunnar at SS instead of Mateo...  There is very little connection to Mateo's potential role to Holliday's.  I don't buy the one or the other bit.

The PAs loosen up a bit IF they feel comfortable with Mayo at 1B or RF.  But that squeezes Mounty (as the RHH) and Hays/Santander (and the LHH rookies) in the OF.

That’s the whole point. How are you jamming in playing time for all these guys? 

typical if healthy number of starts 

Adley 150

Gunnar 150 

Santander 145

Mullins 140

Mountcastle 140 

Hays 135

 

With McCann catching around 50 games that leaves about 550 starts for the rest which would include Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad and O’Hearn if Mateo and Urias are gone. 

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He wasn’t talked up. Elias said they wanted to try him out there.

Yes he’s fast but that doesn’t mean he play CF. We have no idea how the arm truly plays in the OF.

He hasn’t been there for years. There is zero reason for any of us to just assume he can play the position. Maybe he eventually can but in the context of what we are discussing, it would be foolish to expect him to be a better back up OFer than McKenna..plus McKenna is probably the better offensive player.

Also, they both likely can make the team anyway.

I think the Os, unless there is a trade(s) out there will maximize all of there depth, which means they don’t even risk losing McKenna right now.

If they keep McKenna then I don’t see how Cowser makes the team without a trade of course. 

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

Are you worried about his outfield throwing mechanics?  Because his statcast velo numbers from the infield suggest that he will have no problem with his velocity in the outfield.

I’m wondering how much - if any- Mateo is playing CF in B games and/or working out in camp? Not sure if media has said anything or not.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

Are you worried about his outfield throwing mechanics?  Because his statcast velo numbers from the infield suggest that he will have no problem with his velocity in the outfield.

We don’t know what the accuracy will be like.

 

And btw, those 2021 numbers you referenced were in 67 innings.  Thats basically zero sample size.  They mean nothing.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If they keep McKenna then I don’t see how Cowser makes the team without a trade of course. 

Why?  McKenna is going to barely play.  He’s just a break glass in case of emergency/pinch runner/defensive replacement guy.

Cowser can easily be here and play 4 or 5 times a week.

McKenna has no impact on him.

Edited March 11 by Sports Guy

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why?  McKenna is going to barely play.  He’s just a break glass in case of emergency/pinch runner/defensive replacement guy.

Cowser can easily be here and play 4 or 5 times a week.

McKenna has no impact on him.

McKenna is out of options. Who is your 4 man bench? Mateo has to be gone then. 
 

[DirtyBird]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well that’s extremely incorrect. First of all, over time, players will establish themselves as better than others.

Secondly, it keeps guys rested and doesnt push guys into playing time they really shouldn’t have.

And lastly, it gives the young kids at bats and experience they need for the long term while also helping the team now.

Would like to see the AB math on where the AB's go on a roster that includes Urias, Westburg, O'Hearn, Cowser and Kjerstad, that gets the everyone 400 AB's 

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

That’s the whole point. How are you jamming in playing time for all these guys? 

typical if healthy number of starts 

Adley 150

Gunnar 150 

Santander 145

Mullins 140

Mountcastle 140 

Hays 135

 

With McCann catching around 50 games that leaves about 550 starts for the rest which would include Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad and O’Hearn if Mateo and Urias are gone. 

Me hopes:

Gunnar, Holliday, and Santander are the 150 games (600 PA) guys.

Adley, Mullins are in the 550 PA zip code.

Mayo, Mounty, Westburg, Hays are around 400-450 PAs

Cowser, O'Hearn, Stowers, HK et al split the rest in Darwinian fashion or in AAA.  

And a few shtick players...