Will striking out 40% of the time ....

[foxfield]

24 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Giving up three or four weeks of a 20-year-old splitting time in a crowded infield mix in exchange for a shot at an extra year of control of a potential All-Star-type player?

Kind of a no-brainer for the ownership. I don't see Holliday making the OD roster.

It wouldn’t be three or four weeks. If you recall, the Orioles brought Adley up on May 21. He finished second in the ROY vote and earned a full year of service. 
 

Holliday may not be the ROY but he is certainly in the running. But there should be little doubt that bringing him up in late April would leave him plenty of time to earn that full year. 
 

Getting bitten by this once was unlucky for Elias. Getting burned on it again would be a mistake and I don’t think he does that. 
 

So the question should go something like this. Is Holliday the best option for the Orioles in ‘24?  If so he makes the team.  The answer seems obvious but…
 

They could decide they are going to try to game the clock, a send him down. But it won’t be for three or four weeks, it would be until at least June and likely later.  And they might go this stall route. I just don’t believe that 3-4 weeks is a viable option if he is sent down because it has a high risk of backfiring.  If they want him here in a month he goes north with the team. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

effect Holliday and Westburg's chances to make the team this spring?

Mayo is doing better in that department.

You can flip spring stats any way you want. Why are strikeouts in ST more important than something like his .613 SLG? It's all just noise in a small sample, guys are getting ready, etc. 

Edited March 13 by interloper

[Orioles0615]

1 hour ago, TommyPickles said:

Giving up three or four weeks of a 20-year-old splitting time in a crowded infield mix in exchange for a shot at an extra year of control of a potential All-Star-type player?

Kind of a no-brainer for the ownership. I don't see Holliday making the OD roster.

Until he finishs top 2 in ROY 

[forphase1]

30 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If you think Holliday will finish top two in ROY, then we are going to lose the service time no matter what. The only way to guarantee the service time will be to hold him down way longer than 3-4 weeks. Would need to be more like 3+ months. 

Which is what I still expect to happen, to be honest.  I know I'm in the vast majority as even those who think he's sent down believe it'll just be for a few weeks.  But I think he's down long enough to get the year, to get past Super 2 possible status AND long enough that even if he's on fire he can't make real ROY challenge.  I won't even be shocked if he's kept down long enough to ensure he's in the running for ROY NEXT year.

Again, I hope I'm wrong and and NOT advocating for this to happen.  I'd have him (and Mayo frankly) in the OD lineup, with an infield of Holliday, Henderson and Mayo with Westburg getting 3-4 starts or so a week spelling one of them and shifting the infield around a bit.  But I expect our OD lineup to be Westburg, Henderson and Urias with both Holliday and Mayo stuck in AAA.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Which is what I still expect to happen, to be honest.  I know I'm in the vast majority as even those who think he's sent down believe it'll just be for a few weeks.  But I think he's down long enough to get the year, to get past Super 2 possible status AND long enough that even if he's on fire he can't make real ROY challenge.  I won't even be shocked if he's kept down long enough to ensure he's in the running for ROY NEXT year.

Again, I hope I'm wrong and and NOT advocating for this to happen.  I'd have him (and Mayo frankly) in the OD lineup, with an infield of Holliday, Henderson and Mayo with Westburg getting 3-4 starts or so a week spelling one of them and shifting the infield around a bit.  But I expect our OD lineup to be Westburg, Henderson and Urias with both Holliday and Mayo stuck in AAA.  

I think that would be a clear indication that the O's don't actually value winning very highly.

If they do something like that and then fail to make the playoffs...ohh boy.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Which is what I still expect to happen, to be honest.  I know I'm in the vast majority as even those who think he's sent down believe it'll just be for a few weeks.  But I think he's down long enough to get the year, to get past Super 2 possible status AND long enough that even if he's on fire he can't make real ROY challenge.  I won't even be shocked if he's kept down long enough to ensure he's in the running for ROY NEXT year.

Again, I hope I'm wrong and and NOT advocating for this to happen.  I'd have him (and Mayo frankly) in the OD lineup, with an infield of Holliday, Henderson and Mayo with Westburg getting 3-4 starts or so a week spelling one of them and shifting the infield around a bit.  But I expect our OD lineup to be Westburg, Henderson and Urias with both Holliday and Mayo stuck in AAA.  

As much as I have supported playing the service time game during the rebuild, I would be strongly against manipulation to this extent. Only way I would support holding Holliday and Mayo back that long is if the organization genuinely thinks they need the development. Remember we are now coming off a 100 win season and new ownership should be taking over in April.

[forphase1]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

As much as I have supported playing the service time game during the rebuild, I would be strongly against manipulation to this extent. Only way I would support holding Holliday and Mayo back that long is if the organization genuinely thinks they need the development. Remember we are now coming off a 100 win season and new ownership should be taking over in April.

Sure, the problem is we will NEVER know if they genuinely think that they need the development.  Of course they aren't going to say that 'we are manipulating the service time and the ROY rules to make sure it's in our favor.  Yeah, both Holliday and Mayo are ready, but we want to get the most out of them, as cheaply as we can, for the next handful of years.  We are playing the LONG game, not just the best for 2024 game'.  Instead it will be about them needing more seasoning, more time against top AAA pitching, work on playing 2nd and 3rd base, etc etc.  If they are sent back to AAA, we can speculate until we our fingers are worn out from typing, but we will never KNOW 100% if service time matters factored into their decision making process.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, forphase1 said:

Sure, the problem is we will NEVER know if they genuinely think that they need the development.  Of course they aren't going to say that 'we are manipulating the service time and the ROY rules to make sure it's in our favor.  Yeah, both Holliday and Mayo are ready, but we want to get the most out of them, as cheaply as we can, for the next handful of years.  We are playing the LONG game, not just the best for 2024 game'.  Instead it will be about them needing more seasoning, more time against top AAA pitching, work on playing 2nd and 3rd base, etc etc.  If they are sent back to AAA, we can speculate until we our fingers are worn out from typing, but we will never KNOW 100% if service time matters factored into their decision making process.  

I understand the long game but there are too many unknowns in baseball.  You have to push when you see the chance.  You have very little idea of what 2030 is going to look like.  Would be foolish of Elias to act in such a manner.  Realistically what are the odds of him still being in Baltimore?  How many folks in his role stay for over a decade?

[scarey1999]

I don’t understand this post at all. Last week it was around 50% for Holliday. So he’s trending in the right direction. He’s hit the ball well and with authority.  Also very small sample size. This is a non starter for both players.

[ChosenOne21]

Why not start him in the majors and send him down if he struggles? If he does well, the team benefits from his performance and you have a shot at the extra pick. If he struggles, you get the extra year of control.

I think you'd have to be around Shohei Otani levels of talent for your seventh season to have more surplus value than a draft pick + 3 extra weeks of play.

If you think the guy has a good shot at RoY or runner-up, start the season with him.

Edited March 13 by ChosenOne21

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, so you disagree with Wildcard.

How can he disagree when I did not state a position.   I ask a question.

[Tony-OH]

Westburg is on the team so that's a moot point, plus he's hitting the snot out of the ball when he's making contact.

The Orioles are playing Holliday like he's making the team. I think they really want their top three in the lineup to be Holliday, Gunnar and Rutschman. Bat Santander 4th, Mountcastle 5th, O'Hearn/Kjestad/Cowser 6th, Hays 7th, Mullins 8th, and Westburg 9th and that a pretty damn good lineup.

[Moose Milligan]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Westburg has no risk. Holliday could but it will be because of service time.

When are you going to learn that smart teams and people around the game don’t put the value on tiny sample sizes like you do?  

Just stop with this.  It means NOTHING!!!

Give it up man, he's gonna small sample size himself into a tizzy every given opportunity.

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Give it up man, he's gonna small sample size himself into a tizzy every given opportunity.

How is it a small sample size? Spring training is half over.

[capyy]

Can someone explain to me why the 90 plate appearances in AAA is treated as fact but the 35 plate appearances in spring training is completely meaningless? Both seem small to me. At what # of plate appearances does the data start to have meaning? I think I've read K rate becomes meaningful at a lower # of appearances than other metrics, so that # concerns me a little.