Will striking out 40% of the time ....

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I never take wins for granted because of a "light schedule".    Two weeks would be pretty transparent that they were just gaming the system.  I think he makes the team but if they have legitimate concerns I don't think he's down for only two weeks.

Yeah the light schedule thing worries me. We have an ace who has yet to have a good spring outing, a #2 who has looked like the first half version of himself, and 3 guys who are kind of all #4s. And a bullpen that is quite suspect. All of that may be meaningless! It's spring, I get it. 

But we still have to go win these games. 

Edited March 14 by interloper

[Just Regular]

59 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I saw at least two called 3rd strikes on Holliday that were bad calls, not even boarder line. So that is also most likely taken into account. I didn’t pay attention to who the umps were. I would imagine that they weren’t the best of the crews but couldn’t say for sure since I didn’t pay attention. 

Julio Rodriguez nods.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Wong would not get bats against LHP, most likely.  He might not even start against RHP.   They could go with Urias and Westburg with Wong on the bench.  They could say they want to see Holliday improve against LHP at Norfolk.

While to me this is a worse case scenario from a fan stand point, I could see the Orioles doing this if they are trying to gain another year of control of both Holliday and Mayo. I think they would be doing themselves a disservice short term if they do this, but it might make sense long term, especially financially. If they are comfortable with Wong at 3B, that makes him a good handcuff for Westburg and Urias since he bats left-handed.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I never take wins for granted because of a "light schedule".    Two weeks would be pretty transparent that they were just gaming the system.  I think he makes the team but if they have legitimate concerns I don't think he's down for only two weeks.

Agree. Even when Elias "gamed the system" with Rutschman, he had him down until the 3rd week of May.

[foxfield]

4 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Yes he does. An extra year of Holliday is extremely valuable to any organization, especially this one. If Holliday gets sent down, that'll be the reason. I think it's quite possible that I'm wrong and he makes the team (with no injuries or trades), but I think Elias will ultimately feel that using Westburg at 2B and Urias at 3B for 1-2 months will be worth gaining the extra year of Holliday. 

For the 1100th time. You are correct that at this point if Holliday goes down it will likely be to gain a year. However…

After losing the extra year with Rutschman, who came up on May 21…there is no way this move is made in a month or 2.  And it certainly will not be a couple of weeks. 
 

If Holliday goes down it will likely longer than Adley and likely until the All-Star break or later. 

[Brooks The Great]

4 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

How long is that, like June? 

I'm ignorant to such things.

It's never an exact date - the date changes from season to season because it's based on the top 22% in service time of the players eligible. But it's usually in June.

[Brooks The Great]

9 minutes ago, foxfield said:

For the 1100th time. You are correct that at this point if Holliday goes down it will likely be to gain a year. However…

After losing the extra year with Rutschman, who came up on May 21…there is no way this move is made in a month or 2.  And it certainly will not be a couple of weeks. 
 

If Holliday goes down it will likely longer than Adley and likely until the All-Star break or later. 

There certainly is a way the move is made in less than a month or two. If Gunnar were to get hurt in late April, for example, then Holliday would be called up. So I completely disagree with you when you say there's no way the move is made in a month or two if Holliday begins the season in the minors.

But yes, barring injuries, it will be longer than two weeks.

If the IF group of Gunnar, Westburg, and Urias stays healthy, there's a possibility Holliday gets the Gunnar treatment. Late August callup in order to preserve his rookie eligibility to have a better chance to place in the top 3 ROY vote-getters in 2025. Which is another secondary - yet not totally insignificant - factor that people who think Jackson is making the OD roster may not be considering.

[foxfield]

27 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

There certainly is a way the move is made in less than a month or two. If Gunnar were to get hurt in late April, for example, then Holliday would be called up. So I completely disagree with you when you say there's no way the move is made in a month or two if Holliday begins the season in the minors.

But yes, barring injuries, it will be longer than two weeks.

If the IF group of Gunnar, Westburg, and Urias stays healthy, there's a possibility Holliday gets the Gunnar treatment. Late August callup in order to preserve his rookie eligibility to have a better chance to place in the top 3 ROY vote-getters in 2025. Which is another secondary - yet not totally insignificant - factor that people who think Jackson is making the OD roster may not be considering.

All of the above is fair…sure there IS a way he can be up.  That does not mean he would be.  Most of the ways he could be will bring a strong chance that you lose a full year of service without the benefit of having him.  Not to mention the other potential benefits if he happens to be in the ROY hunt. Which he is currently one of the favorites for…
 

I am not saying he can’t.  Of course he could.  I am saying if he goes down they are planning on him being down long enough to gain the year and keep his rookie status like Gunnar. 
 

Any you better believe that Elias is running through all of this in his risk calculation. There is just an awful lot of risk to send him down to game his service time. And therefore, I think if Elias thinks he is ready he goes north and if he isn’t he goes down and stays late. Injuries or not. At least that would be the plan IMHO. 

[eddie83]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I agree with the first sentence.  Holliday's AB's against LHP and the signing of Wong have me a little worried.

He doesn’t have to play vs all the LHP. He is going to sit some anyway. 

[RZNJ]

51 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

He doesn’t have to play vs all the LHP. He is going to sit some anyway. 

I agree.  He could be platooned or semi platooned.  My concern is that they might use that as excuse to send him down.  Of course, Gunnar struggled against LHP and breaking stuff so maybe it's a moot point.

[capyy]

fwiw gunnar had a 32% strikeout rate in 2023 spring training

[Frobby]

On 3/14/2024 at 12:49 PM, Can_of_corn said:

And a lot of teams get that extra year by extending their players.

I also don't think it's "especially" important for this team in particular.  That just sounds like something you tell yourself so you are OK with them messing with the kid's future.

In Holliday’s case, I am not even a little bit concerned about the O’s “messing with the kid’s future.”   He’ll be younger than 99% of the guys who debut in the major leagues, whether that’s in March or in June.   He’s got $8 mm sitting in the bank, his dad made more than $100 mm playing baseball, and he will probably triple his dad’s earnings before he’s through.   And I don’t think it’s blindingly obvious that he should make the team out of spring training, service time issues aside.   I’ve said since day one that the O’s should make that decision strictly on the merits, and I still feel that way, but like any rookie, Holliday has the burden of proof.