If Jackson Holliday makes the Opening day roster, what do you think are his chances of finishing top two for Rookie of the Year?

[Frobby]

There’s been lots of discussion of Jackson Holliday’s chances of making the OD roster, and supposition that he could earn us a draft pick by finishing top two for ROY.

My question is, assuming he’s on the roster, what do you think are his odds of finishing in the top two?

[dystopia]

50-50 IMO

[DirtyBird]

He has a 25% chance of being the best rookie on the team.

[oriole]

I went with 25-49 but I think it’s around the 40-49% range. Just because he’s the games top prospect doesn’t mean that he’s going to best rookie. It obviously bodes well for him, but anything over 50% seems presumptuous. Not to mention, the dude is barely an adult.

Edited March 17 by oriole

[Say O!]

FYI, Odds books currently have (in order) for AL

1. Evan Carter
2. Jackson Holliday
3. Wyatt Langford
4. Junior Caminero
5. Colt Keith
6. Nolan Schnauel

 

 

[Say O!]

I voted 25-49%.  It helps that Os will be competing for playoffs again this year (but same goes for TEX). Also in Carter and Langford favor is that they will likely be more middle of order hitters whereas Holliday may start season toward the bottom of the batting lineup impacting counting stats and general narratives.

[mddisney]

20 minutes ago, Say O! said:

FYI, Odds books currently have (in order) for AL

1. Evan Carter
2. Jackson Holliday
3. Wyatt Langford
4. Junior Caminero
5. Colt Keith
6. Nolan Schnauel

 

 

seems Like Mayo an easy high upside bet given that

[DirtyBird]

Just now, mddisney said:

seems Like Mayo an easy high upside bet given that

How many votes does Roy Firestone get?

[Frobby]

By the way, I screwed up.  Only the ROY earns a pick, not someone who finishes top two.

Another little known fact: a player who earned a full year In his first year also can earn his team a draft pick by finishing in the top 3 for MVP or Cy Young any time before they are eligible for arbitration.   So in other words, say Holliday makes the OD roster, doesn’t win ROY, but finishes 3rd in MVP voting in 2026.   We’d get a draft pick out of that.  

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/prospect-performance-incentive-ppi-eligible-players.html
 

Edited March 17 by Frobby

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Say O! said:

FYI, Odds books currently have (in order) for AL

1. Evan Carter
2. Jackson Holliday
3. Wyatt Langford
4. Junior Caminero
5. Colt Keith
6. Nolan Schnauel

 

 

I’d say Caminiero’s odds just went way down.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By the way, I screwed up.  Only the ROY earns a pick, not someone who finishes top two.

Another little known fact: a player who earned a full year In his first year also can earn his team a draft pick by finishing in the top 3 for MVP or Cy Young any time before they are eligible for arbitration.   So in other words, say Holliday makes the OD roster, doesn’t win ROY, but finishes 3rd in MVP voting in 2026.   We’d get a draft pick out of that.  

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/prospect-performance-incentive-ppi-eligible-players.html
 

So Adley can still get us a pick as well.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So Adley can still get us a pick as well.

No, because he wasn’t on the OD roster in 2022.  And Gunnar can’t because he already got us a pick by winning ROY.  
 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

No, because he wasn’t on the OD roster in 2022.  And Gunnar can’t because he already got us a pick by winning ROY.  
 

Ok. Got it.  Thanks.

[emmett16]

I think the hype gives him an advantage, and I think the talent and skill set seals the deal.  He will hit, he will hit for some power, he will get on base, he will play very good defense, and he will steal bases.  I don't think I've ever been so high on a prospect as I am on Holliday.  I went 50% or higher.  

[Aristotelian]

Even if he has the best chance of all the candidates, there are a lot of candidates, including Mayo, Kjerstad, and Cowser, depending on when they are brought up, so I can't go any higher than 50%. Hard to know how any of these guys are going to do at the highest level and both he and Carter would be essentially skipping AAA.