Holliday or Skenes. Who would you rather have?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Better than Corbin Burnes?  
 

It’s definitely possible but unlikely. 

I’m factoring in that Burnes is a short-timer.

[Moose Milligan]

Holliday. 

[ChosenOne21]

It's fine to prefer Holliday over Skenes, but this "no thanks, pitchers get hurt" idea is getting to be a bit much.

If all good pitchers get hurt and we need good pitchers to win, we need good pitchers who will get hurt. I don't know where we're going to find these mythical unicorn pitchers who aren't an injury risk.

[Roy Firestone]

20 hours ago, foxfield said:

Interesting thought process, but no.  I would however, move a huge load of prospects for him.  But if you could have a great pitcher or a great everyday player, you have to take the everyday guy.

'"Tightness in the forearm.'..changes everything in an instant...The most dreaded words for a pitcher in baseball are: "Neal S. ElAttrache, "

 

20 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Skenes is about 1.5 years older.

Paul Skenes is 21 years old. Turns 22 in May.

Jackson Holliday is 20 years old. Turns 21 in December.

Personally, I'd take Skenes. I think he's the top prospect in baseball. I might have a different answer if the choice was Gunnar. I'll decide that after I see responses here.

 

[baltfan]

This question is really based upon a variety of factors.  Given where the Orioles are currently, their set of prospects, and their needs if this were the draft and I had to pick from present Holliday and present Skenes, I would take Skenes.  The gamble that he would be a generational talent ala Strasburg would be worth it.  I like Holliday a lot, but honestly don't think he has the upside of Gunnar.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, baltfan said:

This question is really based upon a variety of factors.  Given where the Orioles are currently, their set of prospects, and their needs if this were the draft and I had to pick from present Holliday and present Skenes, I would take Skenes.  The gamble that he would be a generational talent ala Strasburg would be worth it.  I like Holliday a lot, but honestly don't think he has the upside of Gunnar.

I can tell you for sure the Os disagree with that and he is more advanced than Gunnar was at the same age.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

It's fine to prefer Holliday over Skenes, but this "no thanks, pitchers get hurt" idea is getting to be a bit much.

If all good pitchers get hurt and we need good pitchers to win, we need good pitchers who will get hurt. I don't know where we're going to find these mythical unicorn pitchers who aren't an injury risk.

It's not that you just avoid pitchers altogether, it's just that you don't burn top draft picks on them. You find them later in the draft and develop them, or you trade for them, or you sign them. But passing on a can't miss position player prospect at the top of the draft for a pitcher seems foolish to me, no matter how hard he throws. 

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can tell you for sure the Os disagree with that and he is more advanced than Gunnar was at the same age.

How do you know what the O’s think about who has more upside between Holliday and Gunnar?  Have you spoken to Elias recently?   Hard to argue the “more advanced at the same age” point, but that’s got nothing to do with upside.  Both players have a lot of it.

[dystopia]

Amazing how the “grow the arms, buy the bats” philosophy has been turned on its head. Not that I disagree with that, but it’s amazing how things can change so quickly. 

[interloper]

I don't see how anyone can think Holliday doesn't have at least similar upside to Gunnar, and probably more based on what he's doing for his age. 

[Tony-OH]

Skenes is an impressive pitcher no doubt, but I would take Holliday. Holliday is going to be a lead off hitter who is going to get on base at a .400+ rate and probably end up hitting 20-25 bombs and year while playing plus defense at 2B or Averge-ish defense at SS if he plats there at some point.

When you add in the additional injury risk that comes with pitchers, that also leans towards Holliday. 

Two great players for sure, but I'm taking the position player who has few holes in his game already at 20-years old.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Roy Firestone said:

'"Tightness in the forearm.'..changes everything in an instant...The most dreaded words for a pitcher in baseball are: "Neal S. ElAttrache, "

 

 

You would think Dr. ElAttrache would have at least some competition in the business by now. Any med students out there reading this, Tommy John is a lucrative specialty and there appears to be only one guy doing it. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't see how anyone can think Holliday doesn't have at least similar upside to Gunnar, and probably more based on what he's doing for his age. 

The fact that Holliday has a major leaguer for a father and can sleep next door to a batting cage with very sophisticated equipment all winter is a double-edged sword.  It makes him extremely advanced for his age due to his upbringing and opportunity, but arguably limits his upward mobility since he has less to learn at the major league level than most players.   So I don’t think that what Holliday has done at a young age tells us that much about his upside.   His upside comes more from the expectation that he will get bigger and stronger, not so much that he will refine his skills.  Gunnar’s the opposite.   He’s about done physically, but still learning some of the nuances of the game.  

I personally don’t have an opinion on who has more upside, just that both have plenty.   But I just don’t claim to know what the Orioles think.  

 

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

It's fine to prefer Holliday over Skenes, but this "no thanks, pitchers get hurt" idea is getting to be a bit much.

If all good pitchers get hurt and we need good pitchers to win, we need good pitchers who will get hurt. I don't know where we're going to find these mythical unicorn pitchers who aren't an injury risk.

I really don't think that it is.  

More and more pitchers are going down with TJ, especially when we're in an age where it's max effort guys that are throwing 100 mph every time out.  As we're seeing with Means, it takes more than a year to come back from it.  

They are injury risks, to pretend that they're not would be intentionally obtuse.  But say if you have a guy like Skenes and Holliday come up on the same day and you've got them for the first six years of their career, the odds favorite Skenes as the guy who is going to miss significant time with an injury.  If Holliday has a significant injury, it's probably going to be an ACL or an Achilles and he can make it back into the lineup faster, most likely.

It's about maximizing value for the amount of time you have the player and if a guy has TJ for a good chunk of the time you have him, well, that's not maximizing value.  

You do need good pitchers to win, you are correct about that.  However, making sure they're all healthy in order to make a run is almost getting lucky...like, having a guy like Grayson, Burnes, Bradish together for a year without one going down is having all the stars aligned in your favor and we're already holding our breath about Bradish.  Let's not mention Felix and how our bullpen looks without him.  

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You would think Dr. ElAttrache would have at least some competition in the business by now. Any med students out there reading this, Tommy John is a lucrative specialty and there appears to be only one guy doing it. 

Not so.  The Orioles’ go-to TJ surgeon is Dr. Keith Meister, who did Felix Bautista, John Means and others.  https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/rangers/2024/03/07/how-dr-keith-meister-revolutionized-tommy-john-surgery-much-to-texas-rangers-benefit/?outputType=amp